Member Info for Romeike

I'd bet on hell freezing over before Kenya manages to get itself together to actually extract oil

Where are these production numbers coming from? There is no offical release of numbers from Tullow, the latest update was Nov last year.

Not entirely true as any local currency payments for labour and services in UK, Ghana, Kenya etc. will be slightly cheaper right now when paid out from USD but dollar strength won't last forever, it fact the DXY looks ready to roll over as it is.

What loans? There are no loans anymore are there because they made a deal to convert to stock.

The discussion on reserves seems to leave out the fact that reserves are constantly upgraded as the operators invest in better field data, they aren't a fixed point, they are a snapshot conservative estimate of what, based on currently available data, the extractable resource is likely to be. Look at the North Sea where mature asset reserves were upgraded and drilled for decades beyond the original scope.

I believe the value of the remaining disputes are relatively minor, this was the news we all needed to hear.

Where in the RNS does it say gold dore please?

This is nonsense

KOS made a speculative approach to Tullow in the wake of Raul being pushed out, and the board responded by "outing" KOS to set a formal clock ticking on any offer. Tullow wanted this outcome.

Market no longer bothers to respond to positive news from GSK. I have asked IR repeatedly about when they will accept the need to swap to a NY listing but they insist on sticking with London.

My two cents, a deal makes sense for all concerned so long as:

Deal reflects a merger of equals and actually benefits shareholders with stock and cash mix of around 60p that takes account of strong FCF, future Ugananda revenue etc.

NewCo commits to debt reduction and has a viable exploration plan.

John Dramani Mahama has shown support for the oil industry in Ghana. During his previous tenure as president and in his recent campaigns, he has emphasised the importance of attracting petroleum investors and revitalising the sector. He has criticised the current administration for corruption that has driven away investors and has pledged to restore investor confidence and transparency if he returns to power.

Ghana's former President John Dramani Mahama has staged a political comeback by winning the West African nation's presidential election after his rival Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia conceded defeat on Sunday.

The result of Ghana's general election is another blow to a ruling party in a region where voters, hit by economic hardship, high inflation and local currency depreciation, have caused upsets as they seek changes in leadership.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ghanas-former-president-mahama-wins-election-2024-12-08/

I suspect the lack of action is why (in my opinion) the board is agreed that it's time for Dhir to take his bonus and leave. The time for a new for adventurous style CEO is apparent and there will be a strong line up of candidates.

Given the brevity of the release, it seems likely to me that Rahul has been pushed out by an unhappy board. I think a more energetic CEO is needed anyway. Dhir's cautious managerial style may have been what was needed to calm bond holders, but with Tullow in a better position in needs a more entrepreneurial CEO better able to fight Tullow's corner and do deals.

I am thinking that there is a decreased chance of covd19 vaccines crowding out shingles vaccinations next year the way this did this year, and this could actually end up being a positive for GSK.

Trump's election is a positive move towards common sense policies. Most people couldn't care less about his personality. RFK Jr. will be swiftly sidelined.

There's no intention to ban vaccines. I don't know where people get this stuff from! RFK Jr himself has said this, he said he wants vaccines to be available but wants to make sure people have all the relevant information to make informed decisions.

Pfizer reported $36.7 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/covid-pfizer-moderna-project-51-billion-in-combined-vaccine-sales-this-year.html)

Moderna reported $17.7 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/covid-pfizer-moderna-project-51-billion-in-combined-vaccine-sales-this-year.html)

Assuming steady sales figures for the next few years and a court-ordered (or settlement) royalty rate of between 5% and 10%, GSK could potentially receive:

From Pfizer: $36.7 billion * 5% = $1.835 billion to $36.7 billion * 10% = $3.67 billion per year.

From Moderna: $17.7 billion * 5% = $885 million to $17.7 billion * 10% = $1.77 billion per year.

Three year total: $5.5 billion to $10.1 billion range.

Anyone know anything about this possible Niger Delta deal?