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"we should get the full year results 12 March and hopefully the New CEO will be announced before" - happy to be corrected but I am certain Dorothy said that an announcement about the CEO may be made AFTER the review on 12 March.
The drop has been absolutely brutal for long term holders but the SP being at such an irrationally low level compared to assets and revenues only serves to further expectations of a recovery to a more sensible price range. Looking at other examples where this level of punishment has happened we can reasonably expect 3 -6 months for a recovery to begin. At the end of the day the company has strong revenues even at 75K bpd and as difficult as it appears today, getting rid of the bad quality management will likely see Tullow in a much better position in two years than it would have been if he'd been allowed to stay on.
Tell me about it, this has always been my worry since last year, it takes time to get a good CEO and in the meantime there is not much really to help the SP. Dorothy hinted there may be an announcement re: CEO after March review. I optimistically take that as they know who they want and matters are being finalized. Despite some comments earlier the CEO position of a major independent will be a very attractive role and I expect there have been a lot of candidates.
Why I think there won't be a cheap take over:
Board have not come out and stated they are looking to sell the company as their primary strategy and they are not actively inviting bids.
SDA is interested to keep Tullow independent, he will not be supporting some low ball bid.
2.8bn poison pill.
Board could have appointed an off the shelf CEO in Dec/Jan but didn't, indicating they are genuinely looking for a candidate to turn things around.
None of the issues are insurmountable, a reasonably competent CEO could resolve most, if not all of the problems, there is therefore no motivation to sell at this point and it certainly could not be described as in the interest of shareholders.
We need institutional buying to take this up, but institutional buying simple won't happen under the current circumstances. Get a CEO, get a strategy, improve the culture and start resolving issues.
"New" US production already dropping, flat production growth is being propped up by tapping DUC wells, which at the current rate should be used up within a year, assuming they are all productive that DUC counts are accurate.
The same emotions regarding this sentiment driven share that make you consider selling are the same reason institutions are now buying. The ship is rudderless, almost any of Tullows peer are "a better bet" right now if only because they have proper leadership and strategy in place. Tullow is nothing but uncertainty until it acquires a leader and a strategy. And uncertainty is lethal for a share price.
As chair she will see her primary responsibility as preparing the ground for the new CEO by completing the strategic review. I think any positive news will be the preserve of the incoming CEO. Any CEO worth their salt is unlikely to formalize their acceptance before reading the results of the strategic review. I am really hoping that a CEO announcement is made shortly following the review and Tullow can start to move on from the McDade disaster.