Kenya3 Aug 2022 23:37
Re: Kenya deal value, while a figure of approx 3bn USD has been mentioned it is not clear how much of Tullow's stake this buys. India will want to lead with the largest stake so will buy at leat 30%, leaving Tullow with 20% or less. But at 3Bn with the buyer both huge state-backed refiners, and therefore guaranteed buyers of potentially all the barrels produced, this could be a very good deal beyond the immediate financial gain. I expect Tullow will retain a 10-20% stake, as keeping their expertise and local knowledge will be desirable for the partners. Some of the other partners may also farm down, providing India an overal 50%+ stake. It is possible Dhir will sell the entire stake, but I think if this happens it will be because he has his eye on an aquisition elsewhere. Increasingly impressed with this CEO, he's made a number of very shrewd moves and Capricon's enthusiasm for a deal arguably weighted to Tullow is making more sense in light of the Kenya developments.