Member Info for romaron

The spread makes perfect sense to me. The stock is in the share equivalent of a dormant account. It wouldn't pay a MM to have anybody following the stock every day so they leave a kinda stop order and even that isn't for any size. Today's total trading was around �3,000 and even on busier days it scarcely reaches 5 figures. I'm guessing here but I feel the remaining PI's have written this off and hold for the H4 launch. It has become almost binary at the moment and certainly not for widows and orphans. However, getting rid of Williams and with Walsh remaining Chairman things have certainly improved imo. The bond holders didn't really have much option than to take the haircut whilst the hiring of ex Eaton Towers people suggests that under the surface they are paddling like mad.

No, I'm not referring to us investors here but the Alphabet backed project that floats balloons over Kenya (and a few other places). It was mentioned in The Times yesterday because a Kenyan farmer was complaining that a balloon had landed in his field and created chaos and damage by the crowd it attracted. They are some 15m wide and 12m tall so hard to miss. They are normally out of site at 12 miles up in the stratosphere, safely higher than airliners. From what I read they have about 10 over Kenya and they last about 100 days. Alphabet are coy about the cost but whatever it is I'm sure they can afford it. The balloons seem to be the main artery (competition to satellite) and no doubt they feed towers on the ground. It doesn't add much to the debate except to say that Google as they are better known are not ignoring Africa and we know Facebook isn't either. It is clear that Avanti are ploughing their own furrow by sticking to the orthodox more traditional method and the hiring of ex Eaton Towers personnel is significant. Not everything is successful that Google do and I can't imagine they cooperate too freely with their advertising rival Facebook. We are in an interesting space.

Hi Headinsand - you're probably right but it wasn't that long ago that Inmarsat was in the FTSE100 and worth double my ambitious forecast. Africa is the perennial next big thing and one day it may be true. With their threat of launching a migrant invasion on Europe I guess there'll be renewed 'aid' directed towards them and some may actually stay out of the pockets of despots. I can't really comment on the technicalities of Ka etc. but I think the Africans put up with a bit of latency (we had to). My heart dropped when billions were mentioned (shares) but we seem to be in agreement that it is more a statement of fact about where we are. Projections and guesses about the future price are just that - guesses. Get it right and it's exponential growth but the odds of that are low in whatever market you're in. We were about to expire and the bondholders are in at bargain basement prices. I'll take that.

Qd22 - if I'd have called it right I wouldn't have been a shareholder here. I was quietly confident that the bond holders were shareholders and the first thing I checked was that this was the case. In many AIM stocks you get the death spiral financiers who play around with warrants and are basically coffin flies. This isn't the case here and we have a first rate Chairman with a reputation to match. We are by no means out of the woods but we don't have the conflict between bonds and equity that disrupts many companies. I am by no means a guru but think we will know our fate within 6 months. This action means we will continue beyond then but I would expect contract announcements to give upward momentum. If we get it right £1 is conservative.

There was a handout titled Avanti Debt - Positive Impact of Restructuring In short it said moving the 2023 notes reduced the debt from $980.3m to $423.3m (SSF $100m - 2021 Notes $323.3m) previous annual cash interest was $128.7m new annual cash interest $36.6m a saving of $92.1m A PI there asked if the new (reduced) rate of 9% on the 2021 Notes was expensive. Paul Walsh gave the kind of exasperated look which said I'm glad AGMs are only once a year and wearily answered that it was definitely not expensive. I don't think we are yet AAA. Headinsand - backhaul was mentioned but I tend to turn off when it gets mentioned. That is handy income but not enough to give lift off. I'd rather have slow internet than none temporarily. I reckon the bond holders suffered some arm twisting (Peter Reed conflict?) and I would imagine the salespeople were read the riot act. I wouldn't want to argue with Paul Walsh - he's a pretty fierce character.

p.s after the AGM it moved straight to a board meeting so the earliest they could really speak to bigger investors would be post lunch imo. The only surprise was the large vote against Peter Reed (28%) being re-elected a Director. I believe there is a personality clash and he didn't attend due to a flight delay from JFK. I thought 'snow job'. The reason given for announcing the RNS this morning was to avoid *******off the long suffering shareholders who attended.

I attended which meant I could ask my dopey questions directly. This isn't a dilution but a haircut taken by the bond holders (Equity holders have already taken theirs). The bonds were effectively lock-up paper and there has been an acceptance of the real situation. Both sides (if you like) bonds and equity were inaccurately priced. The bonds had no buyers and the equity was supported by hope. One PI asked if this was just moving the chairs around. Paul Walsh strongly said it wasn't the case. There had been problems in the past with clients regularly asking if the company was going bust (EE weekly) and big companies and governments have criteria to reach. It is not as easy to change suppliers as uswitch adherents believe so the problem is to avoid weak companies. Avanti was considered a weak company. This affected sales and this move will address those issues. The salespeople can no longer use this excuse for failure to complete deals. The accounts will be released shortly. Gossip - new contracts to be announced. Expected price to be double figures after today's RNS. Salespeople to be given 'flexibility' on pricing. The technical stuff - something about 5 ground stations almost complete Goonhilly, Jo'burg, Lagos, Dakar and one I've forgotten. 1st may in service check to see if OK regarding H4. H3 in a years time which I took to be a kick into the long grass whilst they see if these moves turn the company around. I wrote down 'high band width 2 way transmission - 5G Avanti at front of technology' Ka is competitive.' People are bemused by this action and the price hasn't really moved. That will change once the company speaks to larger investors and funds. This move may well encourage higher risk funds and investors to wet their wicks. They start talking to funds this afternoon. I am expecting a positive response.

A lot of industry experts have parked themselves in Avanti for a variety of reasons. The sp is almost irrelevant and may easily be worth zero but why are they here? Running a book on Avanti shares is an obligation but they are (imo) almost valueless and only there at the grace of the Bond holders who luckily (for PIs) also hold shares. The bonds hardly move and indicate they are in effect lock up paper. Inmarsat has its own problems whilst Facebook did sniff around looking for an uneconomic deal (for Avanti). This kind of interest does not go unnoticed by others. They may no longer be interested and the technology already dated but the Ka spectrum still has its champions. Avanti (H4) may also be judged like an hotel or an airport. It has to be built before it can take paying customers. Possibly a wipe out but at these prices, tempting to have a punt. They have been promoting Africa's potential for years and it is still a basket case in many cases but we also know that education and internet connections can lift them. Once people get on the internet there is no going back. Some think that they will get superfast broadband cables before paved roads. Who knows? What I do know is that if militias can hold a company to ransom they will commandeer most things on the ground (look at Nigeria and oil infrastructure). They can't reach the satellites and the new guy on board from Eaton Towers knows all about this. Even IS must have left the internet connections alone. Confusing I know but an interesting punt.

Hi Xx, you wisely left no comment on 4. The equity value of the company is peanuts compared to the outstanding bonds. Private shareholders have little influence and are safely ignored by the BoD. I say that because last years AGM was held at an unearthly hour in the Christmas break whist next weeks starts at 9.00 a.m. making it difficult to attend (I may go). Some may see it as contemptuous but many companies are no different and there is an element of honesty in their flagrant disregard. It is no secret that the company is kept on life support by the bondholders who are not known for altruism and they probably need to keep a nominal equity value or be forced into bankruptcy and a forced sale. I bought some recently and I couldn't get more than 50,000 per trade. It is not traded and the spread makes this almost impossible anyway. You then have to ask why Paul Walsh has stayed Chairman - he is no fool and I doubt he needs the dough. The American bondholders now have board influence and are extremely well qualified as are the other members. Nigel Fox being reinstated is also interesting. You don't get the impression that they are here for the NED fees or a semi-retirement/part time pals tenure. Too many talented people are involved and their reputation is probably still important to them. I think it is clear that the future revolves around the Africa potential. This is good news in one respect because the only growth area where billions are freely spent is in overseas aid plus there is a need to stop the economic migration to Europe. Education and communications are essential for a country to grow and Avanti is ideally placed to be part of this. We have added experts in Africa to the team and if Ka can do the job then the future really does look bright. All the talk about new technologies and cabling leaves me fairly cold. African countries expect us to contribute and their threat of not controlling emigration or terrorism is always there. I once went to the Gambia and the main road to the airport was in dire need of maintenance. It was explained to me that it was our fault (the British) because we built it some 20 years before. This made sense to the Gambians? The value of Avanti shares is either zero or £1 plus. There is a plan and providing they don't exclude the passive PI's it could be a winner.

I don't know what happened to LordLlandaffs post when I logged in but I believe he is right about the order of satellites in that Hylas4 comes before Hylas3 (that's what they said at the AGM). I believe that price movements now are largely irrelevant. Some days there isn't even £1,000 traded. The bondholders are the shareholders as well (Mast, Solus, Tennenbaum) so to an extent they are in the same boat as us [they're on the BoD] and would prefer to stay afloat. One question I would to know is if M&G still have the 16.9%. shareholding shown on the website. If anybody knows an independent way to check this I'd appreciate it. Approaching the companies direct are always covered by the caveat that 'we rely on them telling us' which doesn't hold much water when they have lists available at the AGM and the Directors have as much interest as us in having fingers on the pulse. Obviously having an Institution on board gives us some protection whilst the bondholders may be kind to us purely through self-interest. I still feel that the ever greater growing demand for communications means that HTS will be an integral part of it and Europe has an increasing reason to see it being successful. It is proving impossible to hold back the tide of economic migrants and refugees from disputes that seem integral to the continent [Africa] but there need to be fresh ideas to attack the problem and one is to make Africa a success and communications are an essential part of this; that is without the potential which the likes of Facebook would love to get their hands on. I doubt the company are really concerned about private investors and the die is probably set on our future. We have some grown ups on the board now and I am happy that Paul Walsh is still with us. Nothing much can happen until there is more launch confirmation and I would imagine there are many contracts drawn up with the clause 'subject to a successful launch'. Be Lucky

This was reported in March concerning Hylas 3: "Avanti said ESA is hoping for “a late-2017 launch, which could slip further. We are disappointed in the manufacturer of this system.” Airbus said recently that the launch could be in late 2017 but may not occur before early 2018. Hylas 4 which is larger has been scheduled for launch before Hylas3 and has been for some time. It's not fake news but it is OLD news. Only in the bulletin board world do things go exactly to plan.

There is a lot in common between LEGENDS and Rupert Cole. They are both delusional purveyors of half truths with no shame. They actually deserve each other.

Something similar happened in 2013 around Christmas eve. A timing more likely to help political posturing rather than protect vulnerable consumers. The company were surprised but quick to react. A video presentation was made and the price recovered some lost ground. I expect something similar in the next few days. Until we get full details all this is a bit premature but it is not good news. At first glance it appears that should the proposals be accepted then IPF will leave Poland as trading would be uneconomic. The proposal is from a different direction this time and I have no idea what this means (MoJ instead of MoF). It could be inter-departmental rivalry but I cannot see this decision [if enacted] helping those who cannot borrow from banks and have a poor credit rating. They will be forced into loan shark territory as the regulated companies will just close shop. With the populism around at the moment promising to cut interest rates is likely to win approval of voters but is likely to increase rather than alleviate the price of credit for non-standard (poor) borrowers. Where it leaves IPF I am not sure. A fundamental shake up of it's business plan will be needed.

porkie - chances are it was the product of a fertile imagination. Throw in a bit of conspiracy theory and you have the typical Legend post. He displays a lot of Donald Trump traits, especially the narcissism, with outrageous statements that have a tenuous hold on the truth but with confident manipulation many want to believe him. He probably reads the Daily Mail for technical input. Trump never apologises for lying either.

You're more than welcome Mogger as is anybody else. It hasn't (yet) degenerated into the ramping/deramping name calling that happens to some boards although I would say Eagle is an acquired taste. He is a retired Accountant and I trust his financial opinion. Hopefully a pal of mine will provide a half decent translation or maybe MOG will respond? Your research is certainly appreciated. Be Lucky

Hi Mogger, I seldom come on LSE and was surprised by your post. Its a good find and I'm wondering whether MOG will comment as I don't think they had a lot of time to digest the notification. I suppose its normal and gives the court and both parties time to seek or provide more information. I've taken the liberty of posting it on iii.co.uk. I hope you don't mind. Regards romaron