Member Info for romaron

Hi riskingit - I was discussing this with another investor and I said to him imo that for equity holders it is our time. I hold both and believe that there was a time to be in bonds and a time to be in equity. We know that if Enquest had collapsed the bond holders would have been paid first and is therefore always a lower risk that equity. If the riskier bet comes off then expect a windfall in equity which in a strange way is a roll-up of all missed dividends and sleepless nights when the threat from a low oil price was existential for the company. I am not chanting here or preaching karma but I feel there have been signals for some time that we are on an upward trend. Milestones for the company will be when the company's debt becomes investment grade and we are still a distance from that but advances have been made. Maybe baby steps but significant >Caa1 $677.5 mio notes. Still not investment grade but a forward move and not on watch.

I was confused like yourself because the technical drop mid August when the first dividend was paid for some time one would have expected a recovery and an advance. It went from 95ish to 91.75 and stayed there. *close today (SelfTrade) whilst the equity has gained 18%.

I suspect that investment banks used the retail bond dividend payment as a marker that things were improving fast and it was time to abandon the bond and buy equity. They may have needed to do this because of exposure and credit risk with Enquest was near the limit. By selling the bond they created more credit line for investment purposes. Never underestimate the effect of interest rates and the impact of the credit rating agencies. Many companies cannot flit between the bond and equity markets whilst the investment banks make it a speciality. Many of the traditional players envy their flexibility but it is often the back office and recording of transactions that hold them back. Both plays (equity & bonds) rely on the company's success (both good & bad) but few can take advantage. We as PI's can do both without realising it. Anyway, that's my tuppence worth.

The market hasn't really reacted. Is Comsat Direct just a slightly bigger Bentley Walker? The point about time saving for authorisation purposes is important. I've invested in companies that in the past have bought another company just to access the purchased company's sales team who have the necessary clearances to deal with the US Government. It is a bureaucratic process and can take forever. I doubt we could afford another company. I'm a bit disappointed that the CEO hasn't commented in the RNS and with MDA's the devil really is in the detail which is minimal here.
At least with Paul Walsh on board we shouldn't have to worry too much about the MDA as his experience with Diageo would have meant he regularly dealt with them. It also looks like the American holders have just tightened their grip even harder.

I wonder if there is a need to sychronise an announcement between Singapore, Stockholm, UK? An announcement today would give advantage to those with access to OMX.

I think the fact is that Wonga WAS a big fish. Acting irresponsibly and testing the regulators is not what a serious company does. The big fish regarding PFG are NSF and Morse regarding Home Credit (HC)which is closer to the old "door step lender" model and heading in the same direction as Woolworths and Blockbuster. Even NSF who are having some troubles digesting the refugee agents from PFG and after alluding to the benefits to growth are now stating "Home Collect (HC) agent and customer numbers were a little below our expectations but HC remains the group’s smallest division." *42% of NSF revenue. They kinda had to say that because further down they add.
"The HC business was the most affected division by the shift to IFRS9 accounting, as taking provisions earlier had a marked effect on the stock of provisions (so reducing receivables), driven by rapid growth. This volatility was compounded by the effect of bringing on board large numbers of Provident Financial agents who were paid temporary commissions, and bringing across a customer base that typically had larger loans taken over a longer period at lower yields. Bearing in mind the complexity in forecasting future performance that this created, the business performed largely in line with expectations. We saw slightly faster-than expected customer and agent attrition (but, given the number of PFG agents, this was to be expected), and impairments were towards the higher end of guidance."
In RNS/Report speak that says to me things aren't going well. The market is changing here and I suspect all new loans will have to be voice recorded eventually and they will play catch-up (PFG already do this with remote HC). PFG have acted sooner than their competitors but it doesn't change the fact that this is a challenging area.
More important are Vanquis and Moneybarn. In this field we have a major competitor in Newday (aqua). They have a lot of customers but also co-brand with the likes of Amazon for example. They want to go public and may be under pressure to have even higher standards which we know do not come cheap. I think any complacency PFG had is well and truly over. It is possible that Crook anticipated this but acted too late. It did however give an opportunity for a clean sweep. You could even make a case that PFG are disruptors in the cosy old world of HC. Compliance is never easy or cheap. Remember the old saying "when a competitor is drowning, stick a hose in his mouth'.

Is it B?

Put him on filter. I know that advice is likely to reduce the readable posts on this board even further but after all these months the name calling and petty feuds don't move us an iota forward. Getting the price back to (say) 20p would be an achievement. The company's future is binary but at least they've stopped issuing an RNS because the sales office got an enquiry as in the days of Williams.

HIS, I don't have you on ignore and wish Crobe still contributed. I don't think he posts under another name as none of GCCR's 'conspirators' have shown much understanding of the satellite market. Crobe was often negative but knew his stuff. The future is hazy but we all know that somebody will pay something for a new satellite orbiting the parts of the world that others cannot reach (Heineken). The question is how much? I read today that Amazon is sniffing around Homebase sites for more last mile warehousing capacity. "One man's trash is another man's treasure" type of thing. I'm not sure if the reluctant new equity holders are just delaying the day of judgement or have a plan.

p.s. got interest paid into my account from the Retail Bond. Normal service is being resumed.

Hi chilting, I agree with your thoughts and wonder if an announcement by CNE or Bumi would generate an RNS from Enquest earlier if an announcement could have a material effect on the sp. At one AGM a question from the floor seemed to unnerve AB and he questioned the authenticity regarding the facts (can't remember exactly but Kraken related) and the questioner replied that it was from a recent Bumi comment. He has no control over other companies and the rules regarding release of information can be subjective. Another comment from the last AGM regarded speculation that came from a BB. He commented that he had read it and does glance through them to avoid being blindsided at the AGM. Michaelhighbar can confirm. Whether you think a CEO should or should not pay attention to bb gossip or only reads them prior to meeting PI's is also subjective.
My opinion is that AB is not your average CEO and can be both inscrutable and remarkably open during an AGM. Most CEO's would say they never read boards or look at twitter. I think testing the water is commendable and no doubt the Investor Relations view them too.

Hi Dan,

Not a lot of news around so the activity of those not invested increases. They spend a lot of time it seems searching for shares that have had problems or are in restructuring/recovery that may or may not work. They helpfully point out that shares can go down as well as up so we can thank them for that (stating the bleedin' obvious). They are like wasps at a picnic but if you ignore them they do little harm.

*put AL_17 on filter/spam as both whatsoccuring and I think it's a chatbot. It didn't respond to my simple question of what floor the AGM/GM was held on.

Re your Saturday posts. I am assuming that by 'general assembly ' you mean AGM or GM. Can you remind me of which floor the meetings are held on?

We share Kraken with Cairn and they took a bit of a hit today following a downgrade by Investec. If it was a Kraken problem we wouldn't have firmed up. I then checked the Enquest Retail bond which lost a couple of quid (1.85%) so checked out the coupon dates. 15 August so happy with that too. Certainly a healthier feel against what are supposedly our peers.

If it was the Chase I'd have to disqualify you Tim on first answer. You win, it was Jim Buckee, He said this in 2013 when he was Chairman of Enquest. He was Chairman from 2010 - 2016. I wonder if AB agreed with him?
Due to his large shareholding he would have mixed views I guess.

Be Lucky

To the first person to come up with the answer. Who said this? - first past the post wins free drinks at the £1 party.

"Investors are not owners, they think they're owners, they're not owners. They're renters, they're like people who squat in a house for a bit and move on. The people who own it are the management. That's their life, they own it."

I actually agree with the sentiment which is at odds with the public statements companies make. When you know the problems and daily production you don't waste time speculating. The poo might trouble you but day to day stuff keeps your attention away from worrying endlessly about the share price. There is nothing worse than, for example, waiting for a return phone call that never comes. They have a good idea of when sign off will be and would love to be able to tell us to stop whingeing and asking. It will be when it will be. They have plenty to keep them occupied. They are polite to investors and use semantics to answer questions that could embarrass or harm the share price. They will never give a fixed date because that nails them. If you want better guarantees you should invest in bonds.

Pre AGM - Romaron iii : "I think they’ll swerve questions. Commercially sensitive and all that. I haven’t even fully reflected but this is not a good RNS imo. AGM’s are usually a waste of time and few analysts attend. Don’t expect anything more than in the RNS. Whatever the problem with the Kraken sign off they ain’t gonna tell us. I’ll sniff around but doubt I’ll find anything. AB can make Teresa May look downright transparent and decisive. I’m not going to the AGM in an optimistic frame of mind.
Post AGM hitman iii "DC4 planned for Q4 etc as per RNS… but signoff on Kraken not dependant on this… Signoff is close… but no date given… but it’s coming."
michaelhighbar "Sign-off on Kraken could be a matter of weeks and is to be expected in the near term anyway."
May25 -Romaron iii - " Last year I felt that AB was disingenuous when I suggested legacy fields production was poor he claimed that declines were in a typical range. They were not imo and I suppose he couldn’t tell the truth because money was tight and all bets and money from behind the sofa were on Kraken and not on servicing and working old wells. It meant I was suspicious this year and only had one question and wasn’t expecting a straight answer. AB can be sphinx like so I asked the question during the meeting and ambushed him after the official part of the meeting closed. I suggested that the market didn’t like the delay in the signing off and could that affect the farm out and guidance for 2018 production? He said that it wouldn’t affect the farm out the farm out would not take place quick enough for it to affect 2018 production although the deal could be closed in 2018 the impact would be 2019.
I nabbed him later and asked why this couldn’t be in the RNS and he said that they have to consider Bumi’s position. In front of others he said the sign off was IMMINENT. Now I know it is possible to wriggle out of statements but I am a simple minded individual and expect that to mean with a couple of months! "

I don't know about that Dol03 but I'm happy for a friendly bet with 121 that AB said it, lets say £100. I know of at least 3 guys who post on iii and 2 of them post here occasionally who were there too. I've plenty of people who've met me and will vouch. Anybody met epiphany121?

16.43 post. I was at the AGM and asked the question. AB replied in public. Sign off was 'imminent'. That is a word that the C-suite, Governments and a variety of organisations can play with. How long is 'imminent' in the development of a major oil field? On a bulletin board imminent seems to be a few days. I didn't expect it to be almost 3 months and counting. I am not a liar. Sit behind your keyboard casting aspersions that carry little weight. Anonymous posters can be brave but others were there to witness the reply. I have no doubt that AB would be able to defend the word. Politicians do the same thing daily.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgCcH1rFDk8

More mind blowing stuff. He was right; I didn't know what API was. The falling of tax receipts as the gig economy grows and AI must impact on PFG. The only thing I have in common is that I had my DNA tested with 23andme. I immediately wanted to invest in the company but it is private. What wasn't surprising is that it is run by the Anne Wojcicki wife of Sergey Brin of Google fame.

*it may interest you that there is a 5 per cent chance of ginger hair with my DNA. and I can smell asparagus in pee.

I would imagine that the new board is as much about getting the company back on course as appeasing the regulator.
From the interim statement "The focus for the second half of the year will remain firmly on delivering the necessary actions to achieve the five key objectives for 2018; implementing the home credit recovery plan and obtaining FCA authorisation in CCD, delivering the ROP refund programme in Vanquis Bank, further developing the group's governance and culture, progressing the FCA investigation at Moneybarn and continuing to strengthen the group's funding position."
It is in the FCA's interest as much as PFG's to get authorisation. A failure would reflect poorly on the FCA and its role of policeman and promoting healthy competition between financial service providers. The new board appointments have been run past the FCA (maybe informally) and I have no doubt that Chris Gillespie's appointment was given the thumb's up. There are always lines of communication between the regulator and companies and they probably know each others first names and have been known to meet socially. [In my day the bank of England was always approachable and got a lot of its intel that way]

The new board has 3 women on it and one was an ex Government minister. They are all of a high calibre and would do their own due diligence and in some cases would have had informal links to the regulator and friends in the industry. In fact, with their experience it would be amazing if they didn't. The fact that they attracted these people speaks volumes.

I was most interested in the appointment of John Straw. He is full of ideas and highly respected. They kept him but not David Sear who was an IT expert and involved in strategy. This makes me excited for the future of PFG.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAOq_7sL1XI

Hi tinlid - I didn't read the Titus posts that way. The Times article is based on "The 108 page witness statement, seen by the Times, alleges" and then went on to headline: joke about disabled regulator, opulent conferences abroad, and not reacting to his death threats by text. As we don't know anything about other poster I just assume that Titus is a half-empty person. But he did make me think.
The article is by a young journalist and it looks like he picked out sensationalism rather than the serious problems that PFG had and are putting right. That's what sells newspapers. I gave my opinion in an earlier post.
In answer to Titus. I said "we" in the sense that on this bb I assume I'm talking to fellow investors. I've never worked for PFG. The Gillespie mention was because they re-hired him. I feel he was forced out in 2013 when Home Credit was already facing headwinds but it appears his integrity and reputation are still highly valued. He has the benefit of 4 years on the road in a variety of jobs so has an improved and up to date skill set. With what happened I imagine that one of the questions they always ask is 'what will the regulators think?'. His tenure at Amigo was short and he left nearly 3 years ago. I think he passes the sniff test. The comment about Tartellin was supposed to be funny. He highlighted his IT success which it apparently wasn't. We'll agree to differ on what makes us laugh. He's gone and that cheers me up. Employees that are chippy often have a higher opinion of themselves than is deserved is a personal observation. I don't remember Home Credit being lauded in Parkinson's reign. My overall impression was that it was old-fashioned and struggling. I try and read RNS and financial updates and the wording is often used to gloss over the facts. For example 'disappointing' is used instead of 'we've run out of ideas'.
I don't think the Tribunal decision will have any effect on the share price. The fact that PFG are following through and not settling is an indication of the board's feelings. I'd go further and say it actually shows the market that they've cleaned the stables. It's rear view mirror stuff and the market looks forward.

Nearly forgot - Chris Gillespie was CEO for Amigo Loans for 10 months until October 2015. They have been getting some criticism in the press. The experience gained during his 4 years away from PFG must be of value. He was helicoptered back in after the debacle and it says on LinkedIn that he is MD of Home Credit since Aug 2017.