Member Info for romaron

Jan- you're so competitive. It does appear that the clever money has finally got onboard. Today we've had 30 mio shares traded if you add up LSE and the Nasdaq bourse. A lot of the trades are technical but it does indicate that when the Rights Issue is over we'll have some new money involved. AB has played a blinder. Some mistakes but the true value of a CEO's mettle is not when things are going well. He didn't let the creditors bully him and his leadership qualities have been shown. Oh, back to the guesswork. My price for year end is 70p.

The TERP calc. If you've got 42.50p and it includes the RI. So 42.50 x 142.86 (3/7) less the 42.86 x 21 gives you c.52p if you cancel out the rights (bottom line as underwritten). You'll get something anyway if the RI is a success and it is looking like that currently. I'm still struggling to break down the Swedish price into 2 components. The ex-rights at 37p gives me a strange price for the rights proportion which suggests you've actually picked up the rights at c.17p in Sweden. I'd have expected the Swedish price to have dropped more with the rights going up to compensate.
I'm tying myself up in knots now. Using 36p (4.175 SEK). That is for 100 shares (ex rights). Compare that to the UK of 42p which includes the RI proportion. That suggests the UK price is made up of 100 x y and 42.86 x z. If you use 100 x 36 then the rights price is above 42p which isn't how it works. I think I'm misunderstanding the Swedish price though it does say that 13.50 mio shares have traded there. I cannot explain the gap between Stockholm and London. Perhaps we need to wait until tomorrow? I expected it to move along in tandem with us until 2 October then see a drop in the quote as it becomes ex-rights and then a corresponding uplift in the rights. Games are played then until eventually the blended price is quoted on 26th.

I am however enjoying the current price even if I don't fully understand it!

Last go. I think the Swedish price is a nominal book-keeping price and here is my attempt to explain.
Assume you pay for rights here, you have 100 shares at 42p = £4,200 and 43 at 21p = £903 Total £5103
The Swedes have 100 shares at 36p = £3600 and 43 at 36p = 1548 Total £5148 (small diff =non exact exchange) rate). They have split them hypothetically and down the road exact prices will be applied. Probably due to exchange law/restrictions etc..... The only people to understand this work full time in the area.

I've got a headache!

Are you sure about that monsteria or are you saying that it's more a case that the BUYER doesn't get the rights so drops the bid? Same thing really but are we in agreement?

"Announcement of the Swedish Krona Issue Price 6.00 p.m. on 25 September 2018
Ex Entitlement date for the Swedish Rights Issue 25 September 2018"

Looking at prices it seems it's still sell the SEK shares and BUY UK which cannot happen if they still had rights in Sweden. I asked a pal if there could be a 'grey market' or synthetic product enabling those that understand these things to arbitrage between the two exchanges and take advantage of a mispriced rights share. He said possible but doubted Enquest or the amount was big enough to interest. It does appear that the trigger for this activity is the Swedish Issue price.

We're around 52p in old money. Not saying it will hold but the market seems to have given the RI a thumbs up. It cannot be the POO only as the regular eeyores remind us that it doesn't pull Enquest higher (I disagree BTW).

12.8mio shares traded so far. It's getting serious.

Ignore last post. Why would you sell UK shares with rights today and buy Swedish shares 'Excluding participating in right/s' ??
It does explain why they've gapped though. The Swedish shares are in a kinda limbo for a few days.

Looking further down the Prospectus it says;

Dealings in New Ordinary Shares, nil paid, commence on the London Stock Exchange and dealings in the Swedish Subscription Rights commence on NASDAQ Stockholm 8.00 a.m. on 2 October
Ordinary Shares marked "ex-rights" by the London Stock Exchange 8.00 a.m. on 2 October 2018

===============

So it appears you cannot trade yet on SEK Nasdaq. Perhaps the amounts in Sweden are too illiquid to accomodate an arbitrage of Sell on LSE and buy on SEK bourse. However, who is to say that some form of option play hasn't already started. The hedge funds are nothing if not creative. It seems this activity was from the timetable and we've already seen over 7.5mio shares traded here.

Sorry 50p in old money

Possibly the SEK rights trading. We're about to break 60p in old money.

In old money we're trading at around 48p (ignoring RI)

From the prospectus timetable

Announcement of the Swedish Krona Issue Price 6.00 p.m. on 25 September 2018
Ex Entitlement date for the Swedish Rights Issue 25 September 2018

I don't know if the rights are quoted. I suspect they are. I'd expect equal treatment of Swedish shareholders to UK shareholders.

This is the page http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/aktier/microsite?Instrument=SSE75073&name=EnQuest%20PLC&ISIN=GB00B635TG28

Now look at the note "Excluding participating in right/s"

that would explain it if these are now quoted ex-rights. This would put an equivalent of 0.37p using SEK 4.255
However, if the SEK pp are trading higher (don't know?) then the price will be in the.40's.
using the TERP estimate at .3890 the shares ignoring our pp gives a price of around 55.5p

Our shares will drop on 2 Oct with the slack being taken up in the partly paid rights issue. The number we'd all like to know is the blended price when they are amalgamated on 26 Oct.

Jan 15.56 Thanks for the memory jog. You're right about the OO on the previous fund raise. I'm far from expert but it does appear that the OO was closer to a placing and removed the risk of pesky PIs being unpredictable. In fact the 2016 OO was described as a Placing and Open Offer. It suggests to me that the Board are more confident this time round and so they should be with production and POO higher. In the OO we were told that shareholders who did not acquire shares in the OO would experience dilution in their ownership. In the RI you will still make a profit if the issue goes well and you don't subscribe or sell the partly paids between 2 Oct and 26 Oct for a profit between. There wasn't a huge difference between the OO shares and the existing shares as I remember and it wasn't the same as doing a TERP calculation to get a wet finger idea. You could even make a case for the Board raising money and rewarding employees and LTH at the same time with this RI. The Directors are pretty well provided for with options as are employees. At the OO the Employee Trust had 24.452mio shares which became 35.320 mio (4/9). They go into the RI with 51.628 mio. They are taking them up which indicates confidence to me.

When they were preparing the RI the POO was mid 70's. We could be mid 80's next week. This is serendipity but I don't care. As Napoleon said "I would rather have a general who was lucky than one who was good."
I think ours are good as well.

Got this from Selftrade:
26 September 2018 – Record Date for entitlements under the Rights Issue.
01 October 2018 – General Meeting.
02 October 2018 – Ordinary Shares marked Ex-Rights by the London Stock Exchange

Perhaps I should add that large amounts do get traded and you only have to look at the major shareholder changes over the years but a lot are agreed off market because of their size (brokers still have a role). This looks like somebody entering the fray. The market isn't really used to big trades and possibly doing it at the auction was the cheapest way. If they'd paid 1p more that would have been an extra £29k. A quiet Friday afternoon. I wonder if they could do it at next Monday's auction? Unlikely now imo.

Auson 16.49 - I don't follow closely but that is the largest UT I've seen in EnQuest. I fancy it was a BUY and somebody could get a decent amount done without moving the price too much. A lot of trade totals is traders going in and out repeatedly during the day with most going home square. If it's anything like the old FX fixings this auction was supposed to be an attempt to do away with banks manipulating their customers orders during the day so they had a more public auction which in theory was more honest (like LIBOR). The danger here for this particular trade is if the price took off during the day they could have been left perched but I think they've cleverly got a decent amount without disturbing the price too much.
I may be totally wrong but those who do trade this stock professionally will not have let this go unnoticed. Let the games begin. Monday morning could be interesting.

The problem with your synopsis Fernan is that you are putting the emphasis on market capitalisation. Once the deal is signed off Magnus and associated debts will be part of the Enterprise Value (EV) which reflects a truer picture/potential which is what financial analysts often use for their calculations. The market capitalisation is what obsesses all of us here but we should really look at the big picture which you have done. I think once these latest deals are absorbed and the strategy becomes clearer the analysts will reduce the risk level and start re-rating the company higher.

I liken the tax losses act to a discount voucher when we look at deals and it works both ways. The seller realises that because of these EnQuest is at the front of the queue because they can afford to pay a tad more. The problem is that EnQuest are basically skint and need creative assistance (including vendor loans). Sometimes a deal is just too attractive to turn down! All this increases confusion and some accusations of smoke and mirrors. The analysts, like us, prefer simplicity and will always be suspicious of something they don't clearly understand. I also imagine that it is difficult to transfer tax losses. Most companies with tax losses the size of ours have already entered administration; I'd imagine we are pretty rare to have survived the downturn with our level of debt.

Sure is quiet. Low turnover of shares today (just over 1mio). Still, we've had the St. Leger last Saturday so hopefully picking up. No action really till the nil paids start trading I reckon.

P. 297 None of the New Ordinary Shares is being made available to the public other than pursuant to the Rights Issue.
So I doubt it can be oversubscribed in the obvious sense but you raise an interesting point. The bookrunners will have a good idea of the demand. Those shareholders who have sold part of the allotment may just be hoovered up and kept by them as will any who don't take up the full RI. Of course they may not need to underwrite the issue at all and just take the money home in a big bag. They can place according to demand which could be high and is a kinda oversubscription. I even wonder if the selling before the announcement was a shorters trap. Make the share undervalued and give the value to the existing shareholders (it does sometimes happen) rather than a placement. Actually, AB would have a problem explaining a placement if he took up shares in one and not the PIs.
Confidence from AB - P.298 the joint bookrunners are not underwriting the Double A allotment. AB has entered an irrevocable agreement to take his full share.
The nil paid rights will be quoted in about 8 working days. Not long.

*MO 11.30 stop showing off.

Damn you heardy - I've got to read the prospectus now.

Comment - thanks for that Fernan. I thought I'd wait until the end because the only real way to understand (for me) would be to sit in a class room environment with a teacher and a board explaining. The danger of trying to piece it together yourself is that if you misunderstand one point it could throw everything else out. The $100 mio amount of the loan sits nicely with the total of gross Opex and Capex. The sort of thing ironed out in face to face negotiations and not coincidental.

My real comment is would (for example) the Barclays analyst do his own sums and if he is too proud to go back to the company could easily make a mistake. The deal seems good value from my perspective but these type of fields are hard to sell. The seller needs a sweetener to unload the asset and that I think is what we've seen. The Ineos purchase of Dong seems at a bargain price but these things only happen when there is a dearth of buyers.

I never thought of that heardy. I wonder what the chances of an oversubscription are? Low I would think but an interesting idea.

The speed of development, especially new ones, is SLOW and new projects getting off the ground even slower. I say this because I got a Rockhopper RNS alert today saying all FEED contracts now awarded and FDP close. That is still years away. No rush if you're a director there as the pay cheque keeps coming. I was an investor in RKH but sold out some years ago because I had learned that delay goes on and on, seemingly forever. The same with Sirius (mining) and at least there I avoided the siren calls and PI enthusiasm. I was told to put everything into Hurricane and resisted. The technology even has its critics there. I'm not saying any of these are bad investments but you have to have a level of patience over and above that shown by EnQuest shareholders. The danger (don't we know it) of investing in companies that have gone through painful times is that you never seem to reach the light at the end of the tunnel. You also tend to end up with more shares than you intended to especially if you have faith in the head Shaman. Nobody can forecast the future, you just invest in people who can manage the cycles, grow the company and cross your fingers on the market having a demand.

I sold out of my CNE interest (flat) and bought more EnQuest on the day of the RI. I was getting a little nervous about the Indian Court Case and remember the Jim Buckee quote of "countries always trump companies" and as my legal knowledge is low I remembered the old saying "ownership is nine tenths of the law". I fancy this RI and using TERP (I don't particularly trust it) the price at present suggests around 44.35p in old money which is encouraging. Hopefully we are at the front of the queue and the waiting is almost over.