Member Info for romaron

Sorry Nil-Paids

Just called Selftrade. They are selling at 14.34p

The promotion of Natalie Mitchell is concerning. The previous incumbent, Patrick Willcocks, is 'on garden leave' according to Linkedin.

I wonder just how dire the situation was at A/G. Seeing the position we were in and the need for an OO (and maybe Rights Issue) we can see that we just couldn't afford work on the failed ESPs. We just didn't have the money.
It does perhaps indicate that the A/G problems were nothing out of the ordinary but due to cash restraints (didn't have any) we couldn't work on them. What I'm trying to say is that the A/G field hit a problem that in normal circumstances would't be a problem. It was either Kraken or A/G. It must have been close and maybe Neil McCulloch abandoning ship was an indication of the poor position the company was in. We are past that now.

Hi MO - I knew that. What I was trying to find out was why they effectively split earlier and was there a tandem kinda price of the ex-rights and the rights shares or are they both at the same price. Tomorrow I expect some fun & games as the traders attempt to arbitrage between thew 2 LSE prices (and possibly Nasdaq too). I think I'll have to wait and see.

Thank you MO for your calculation of (TW)ERP or Theoretical Workings of the Ex-Rights Price tomorrow. I'm not so brave and accept that there are people and traders out there who will take any available profits via arbitrage or whatever is behind the workings of a Rights Issue.
One thing that immediately throws me is the amount of shares to play with. If you go to the Nasdaq SEK page:
http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/aktier/microsite?Instrument=SSE75073&name=EnQuest%20PLC&ISIN=GB00B635TG28
It seems that 247mio odd are listed on Nasdaq. These are valued at close of business tonight at c.35.71p so allowing for weighting will nudge your figure up a little imo. Nobody called me out and I believe these are already split though I have no idea where you could find the SEK rights price or if it has been traded before now. There is often a grey market or synthetic price so maybe there is. Perhaps tomorrow all will be revealed? I'm going tomorrow for 35p for the ordinary share. For technical reasons the 2 prices will move and I'll go for higher both. I'm different to many of the posters here that as much as I appreciate the knowledge and experience of those who have industry or accountancy skills I have an almost contemptuous opinion of spot prices. A sizeable order or a bluff can manipulate the market in the short term. Many look for a lead without choosing their own price. I doubt Warren Buffet chases prices. Most of what we see is buying and selling by all parties, much more than normal because of the RI. Some needed to free up capital. Others might be forced by ratios to increase/decrease. Some might decide to increase/decrease with the forced movements and use it as a smoke screen. It's never ending and even the algobots will struggle to keep up.

I'm looking forward to November when I hope we'll begin to see the benefits of the sterling work the management of EnQuest has done.

To be expected really and the percentages are at Zimbabwe/Russian election results level. I've only ever attended one EGM and I was the only PI who bothered. EGM's are procedural and few turn up other than those whose cannot wriggle out of them any other way. At my one and only EGM there was an outlier similar to what we saw in resolution 3 and 5. Spotting what I thought was an anomaly I asked the Directors what they were playing at or hiding. They patiently explained that there are always objections as a point of principle from certain funds. It is to do with potential abuse by directors and they always vote against but you are now into small print and legal minutiae. Needless to say the important stuff regarding Magnus and Thistle was passed unanimously (lets call the .03 percent a rounding error). Resolutions 3 and 5 percentage against was to be expected and not unusual.

As you say Malafuster, 'full steam ahead'. We should look forward and I suggest that we can all get a better picture when the dust settles and DC4 etc.. are on line in a few months. I'll be interested in how the shuffling of major shareholders pans out.

*Interestingly at one EnQuest AGM two women protesters attended and one stood up and berated the board for polluting the planet. It was strange that they only turned up to one of the 5 I've attended. At this year's a very amusing, old Asian guy asked about when he could expect a dividend. He was treated respectfully and fully. He is a regular and always makes me laugh, in a good way. He is no fool and sometimes it's the way you ask as much as the question.

I thought the small sell off would attract you squiffy. I'm worried about you. I've been doing some research and there is no validated treatment for social anhedonia but I've found something that might help you. You can now buy tomato sauce and baked beans online. It's one of the benefits of Heinz site.

*You could also try buying some EnQuest shares.

There's a reason for that Auson. I don't touch builders as I'm exposed enough living in London (we're all millionaires on paper). My brother worked for Crest Nicholson as a site manager and Carillion cost me money when they bought Eaga (I was short). My opinion of builders is not high. Those who do best in them are the Directors imo. Still, they do in most businesses.
Good luck if you hold them. This country's politics could make them a good buy I suppose. It looks like we're heading for a Labour Govt. and perhaps they'll benefit.

Be Lucky

I used a simple yield to maturity formula using 7 per cent and 3.5 years left against 94.50 price and it says the yield is 8.68 percent not the 10 per cent I suggested. This rate suggests we're not the basket case some suggest.

What I forgot to add is that many PIs will have their own strategies and they may trigger the algobots as they unwind to cut or take profits. There will be arbitrage possibilities as traders play between the RI and old shares. I'll be happier when they are algamated (blended). I read somewhere that it was 26th but now I think it's 31st October. It probably says something in the prospectus but I start to get suicidal thoughts when reading it. I am a LTH so really more interested in when allo this is over which is November really. By then we'll be more interested in Iran and the mid-terms.

Poleaxe makes a good point about the costs in trying to arbitrage rights against the ordinary stock etc.. and these are mathematical decisions driven by sentiment and arbitrage possibilities. Nobody has answered my Thu 19.21 post so I'll answer it myself (possibly wrongly, always a bad idea).
The big move was Tuesday and over 30 mio shares were traded between the two exchanges. I suggested this had something to do with it "Announcement of the Swedish Krona Issue Price 6.00 p.m. on 25 September 2018
Ex Entitlement date for the Swedish Rights Issue 25 September 2018"
These were professional traders and I wouldn't attempt to understand the trades but we can see the results. I cannot get an up to date SEK price as it's delayed by 20 minutes or so but handy for rough calculations.
Today Nasdaq 4.18 c. £36.09p ----------- LSE 41.91p I'm assuming the gap is the value of the nil paid 5.82p.
I agree with other posters that the price slides around and although you may see the LSE price move down there may be a corresponding rise on the nil paids.
I thought about what PR Daynes posted yesterday at 21.09 and did consider selling some of my retail notes for liquidity but as they give a return of close to 10 per cent I'll probably sell something else but of course it increases my exposure to EnQuest.
There is no immediate advantage for the PI to the RI except low costs. PIs cannot avoid the fees paid by the company for the RI. The company would no doubt have preferred to avoid the RI in the larger scheme of things but (to the chagrin of analysts) have decided to focus on increasing production and reserves. Analysts are obsessed with debt which is easier to understand and they can play with their calculators. Unknown factors like the future demand and price of oil or even a Brexit effect are hard to factor in. AB plays his cards close to his chest and it is a leap of faith in some ways to hold this share but doesn't that apply to most shares?

Fake news or old news? Same thing I suppose. I agree buko.

I contacted the company on 3 July about same. I posted on here I believe but to save looking up I'll do it again.

To:investor.relations Details
Hi there,

In your 9th April RNS titled Proposed Restructuring, Open Offer & Notice of GM you included the following paragraph:

"Furthermore, if the Restructuring completes but the Company is unable to raise Additional Funds of at least US$50 million and secure US$40 million infrequently recurring revenue in pipeline by 30 June 2018 then based on the projected cash flows of the Group, the Company will, within the 3 months following 30 June 2018, be highly likely to be unable to pay its creditors, as and when they fall due for payment."

As we've passed this milestone can I take it that we are now in the clear?

====
Reply from IR on same day.

Hi Ron

Yes that’s right.

Thanks
Ralph
=====

I believe the statement was necessary for a variety of governance and cya reasons. Maybe to encourage some laggards. We've gone beyond it so what is the point of bringing it up?

Thanks for that it has hopefully helped the penny drop with me. A question. On the Nasdaq Enquest closed today at SEK 4.24 which is appx. 36.7p in Sterling
EnQuest closed at 42.05p on LSE. When I looked on Tuesday there was a note on the Nasdaq page "Excluding participating in right/s"
To complicate it the annotation has now disappeared. However, the only way I can see to explain the discrepancy between the two exchanges is that to balance there must be nil paid rights at 5.35p which is similar to your calculation. Do you agree?

Hi Ndalla - That was then. The world moves on. I actually agree it's unlikely but there is a deep connection between these two companies. Ineos now have off shore oil fields and they were originally mainly land based petro-chemicals. They own a fleet of ships too. Never say never.

If you do nothing and don't take up your RI then they will be sold on your behalf effectively. They'll go back into the kitty and be allotted elsewhere. If the RI is a failure and the share price drops below the issue price then you have only suffered for any shares you held, not the RI proportion. If the shares go to a premium, which currently seems likely, then you'll deal at a price that is calculated by the book runners. There's probably something in the prospectus explaining how they decide the price but I'm not gonna look for it as it won't affect me. I'm no expert so stand to be corrected.
Oct 1 is the last day you can buy shares with rights attached. The following day they go ex-rights and the share price will drop whilst the rights will go up (as it currently appears). With Selftrade they credit my account with the rights and (not 100 percent sure here) the option to sell them at the market price or hold and pay the 21p.
So, do nothing - they get sold or choose to either sell immediately or wait. Hope this helps.

Thanks Jim - I didn't look into it too closely as I'm taking up mine. Apologies if I worried anybody. The only thing I need to worry about myself (apart from price movements and oil) is to have cleared funds to pay for them but Selftrade tell me in advance what I need to do.

In yesterday’s Times it announced that Total had made the biggest gas find in the NS since 2008. Why should that interest us? In the article it says that the “West of Shetland is now the key area for growth in the UK. The region is core for BP, Shell, Total and Chevron and we already expect large development projects to boost production from the region to the mid-2020s” says Wood Mackenzie analyst Kevin Swann. The discovery will use tie backs already there (SIRGE) to 4 other fields which feed into, wait for it, Sullom Voe!
The Shetland Gas Plant was opened in May 2016 by Amber Rudd. It lies to the east of the Sullon Voe Terminal. The site and pipelines cost around £800mio. It was built by Petrofac.
This leads me in two directions. One, SVT and area is being built into an important hub. Two, the involvement of Petrofac is coincidental to EnQuest having an interest too? I have a thing about coincidences especially when EnQuest was born from Petrofac and the both companies have CEO’s from the Levantine. Do you think they know each other? They worked together.
The CEO of Petrofac has had a troublesome time with accusations of bribery (cleared) and he is 60. AB is 54.
We have large tax credits and the only way for another company to access them is a reverse merger I believe. I cannot see us buying BP but what about Petrofac. Yes, they are much larger but if the CEO of Petrofac wants to spend more time on his yacht (no January, it isn’t available for private charter) then who would he see as a replacement whilst he becomes Chairman or President?
I believe AB has the confidence, desire and ability to run a much bigger company. I’ve let my imagination ride but I cannot shake off the close ties between the two individuals. They both think big and have extensive contacts. The Levantine produces entrepreneurs in the same way that Switzerland produces skiers. It’s in their blood.

*Labour conference filled with Palestinian flag waving (I would too if I'd been there). Perhaps these two gentlemen have been backing the wrong party?

Yesterday the large volume of trades was to do with the Swedish going ex-rights I believe. The technical lowering of the ex-rights will happen to us but when? Could it be tomorrow?
26 September 2018 – Record Date for entitlements under the Rights Issue.
01 October 2018 – General Meeting.
02 October 2018 – Ordinary Shares marked Ex-Rights by the London Stock Exchange

After 26 September I read this as last chance to buy with rights. I think DD did mention that you might need the stock before 2 October to get the rights and today is the last day.

Last nights closing might be worth remembering. It could be the last blended price until the 26th.

Jan wrote " I am on a poultry 53p".

Chicken!

Sorry, couldn't resist.

That was what they said about the US soldiers during the war. I think the Comsat stuff indicates that we've now smelt the coffee and it isn't African. During this Brexit nonsense and Theresa May's visit to Africa I heard on the radio that there is more business done with Leeds than with the whole of Africa. Money talks and I detect the influence of the US investors (ex Bondholders) here. We are a British based company owned by Americans. I doubt their long-term aims are to run a satellite company.