Member Info for romaron

Idly googling and discover David Williams and David Bestwick have surfaced at ArQuit. On the Quantum and Space Team it says this about David Bestwick "Astrophysicist, winner of the Arthur C Clarke Prize, and architect of ArQit QKD system". Does anybody know what he actually did to win the award? It is apparently an award for writing fiction but I cannot find anything.

L3, please read my post again. I wrote "Nothing we didn't already know so I'll copy the conclusion or as they write 'The verdict'. I'll suggest that HOLD is relatively neutral. The content of the article was also neutral and added nothing that regular posters here haven't already said and in some cases expanded upon and with greater insight. Two analysts were quoted. Helal Miah from the Share Centre and John Moore a wealth manager at Brewer Dolphin. I've never heard of either but then I don't move in the exalted level 3 circles. The Helal Miah comment was regurgitated waffle whilst John Moore suggested that a rising tide of the oil price lifts all boats but Enquest has issues that warrant caution. Is that new? He did say that Enquest has a troubling mix of high debt and poor performing assets compared with others in the sector. Which others in the sector concentrate on end-of-life fields, follow a scavenger policy and specialise in decommissioning? It was a bland comment showing a level of ignorance imo. That is why I never bothered to quote them as there is nothing in them and they were poorly researched, again imo.

You on the other hand seem to search for the flimsiest bit of comment that says there are potential worries. I don't know of any investment that doesn't have 'worries'. You have become predictable L3 and I shall not be replying to you until you stop posting half truths. Leave the fake news to those that are good at it.

I was hoping that somebody might have given a reason for this (to me) quite random article. The level of reporting was akin to a tipping sheet imo.

Today p.58 under 'Share of the Week Enquest'. Quite a big piece (half page). Nothing we didn't already know so I'll copy the conclusion or as they write 'The verdict'.

"Enquest is on a much more stable footing than at this point last year. However, its fate still lies with the volatility of the oil price. Its large amount of debt leaves it with little leeway, while its overreliance on the North Sea limits its ability to change strategy. Hold David Byers.

It did make me wonder why the article was printed. Did it come from a PR push as it is quite a boring piece with much more interesting stuff going on elsewhere. There hasn't been much news about us so it's hardly trending. On balance it is neutral but of course it could have had a Sell recommendation. It is in the Property and Personal Finance section.

It does state the 'bleedin obvious so I'm left a little nonplussed. I do disagree with the comment of limiting our ability to change strategy. I'd say it's a brilliant strategy because the NS is far from finished and we are positioned to benefit when the last oil has been sucked out (decommissioning).

Fernan - in the UK it is common practise for the better CEO's not to quote exact figure because the future is always unknown. If you want this kind of information you might find investing in companies associated with the likes of David Lenigas may suit you better. I think you would get more instant gratification if you want numbers that even those working there cannot produce by looking at AIM companies. Governance is more relaxed there.

Personally I have always found EnQuest's responses accurate and honest. I don't expect to be informed of everything that is discussed within the company. I did have one difference with AB when I asked at the 2017 AGM why the declines were so high. He responded that the declines were within tolerances of old wells. Double digit to high teens. What he didn't say (which was also accurate) that this was higher than investors were used to because the company couldn't afford the work-overs and only carrying out essential maintenance because funds were so tight. Now to some this is possibly disingenuous but I would rather have heard this than an admission that the company was in a difficult situation and administration was a possibility. That answer would have caused a complete loss of confidence by the market and a collapse in the share price. I am an investor here so perhaps look at it differently to you. I want a CEO who can steer a company in both good and bad times. Hopefully the good times are here.

Hi Auson, I don't want to clog up this EnQuest board so last on this. Both stocks seem popular to traders (and spread betters?) which means there is decent volume. It's not unheard of building companies to over extend and Mark Twain did say that 'mines are a hole in the ground with a liar on top'. Really you pays yer money and takes yer choice. In the big picture there aren't really any unique skills. Best day traders take small profits regularly whilst the best long term are the likes of Soros and WB. Plenty between them but sounds like you research which always pays in the end. That's why I like reading a BB like this. MO has skills that I don't have whilst Fernan ferrets around in the small print which I avoid if at all possible. Occasionally it gets spoilt by makebates with hidden agendas but by and large this is a good, informative board. I also enjoy Discodave but suggest the money his parents spent on charm school was wasted.

Hi Auson, they did make phenomenal sums. There are very clever people who take advantage of a situation that eventually slips out and others copy. One of the hedge funds mentioned in that article was brought up in a tribunal I attended. The bank involved gave clients numbers to protect anonymity in case something was overheard on an open phone line (we were doing it in spot dollar/mark c.1987) and this protection carried on into the tribunal. Naturally I was nosey. The reason wasn't just to protect customer confidentiality from other customers but the bank's own sales desk which was on the same floor and in hearing distance. In fact, the dealers didn't use the number if it was a sizeable trade; they kept it totally to themselves because the sales team couldn't be trusted. They would favour their client against the bank's and customer's interest.

One of my best pals worked for a hedge fund but is now retired (47) and he explained that much of what they did was putting info into the box and going with the trend (other hedge funds) making it self confirming. Knowing the orders and big trades going through is the biggest advantage. It's not insider trading per se (market gossip) but very hard to see the difference. Then there is the game they play with testing the mandate of the particular fund. I think the biggest was the con when they lumped together US sub-prime mortgages and somehow magically made them investment grade. The cleverest guy I ever knew worked for Salomons. He knew literally everything but when he moved round the corner to Downing Street asked me where do you buy a televison. I asked him what he did with his millions. He told me to keep it secret but he was into Building Society deposits. I think the opportunities that once existed have been exhausted as the world becomes wiser and better informed making profits harder to achieve. The only prop traders left are us!

Dunno about that. No sensible fund manager would have the percentage of portfolio that I have in EnQuest. I am probably more relaxed than most when it comes to investing. I could probably call myself a past 'Level 3 Trader'. That is a mystical figure that has inside knowledge and sees everything first. I worked as a bank dealer in 2 banks in FX and then as a broker in FX which is similar to a market-maker in stocks although all we didn't have a float or access to an auction when things got hot. All we had was a tacit agreement from the Bank of England to trade. It really was Dodge City in the early days. I do though realise that I cannot compete with those who have subscriptions paid by their employers, plethora of screens and continual contact with people and machines and an IT dept. on call when something breaks. More significantly I agree with Nassim Taleb who in his book The Black Swan poured scorn on the Black Scholes (not flip-flops) formula. The hedge funds use it and as long as everybody sings from the same hymn sheet it works (a bit like religion). The future is always unknown! I don't understand the formula but in my past life I had people who do give me orders to place. I sat down with particle physicists and mathematical geniuses who were often socially inept but loved meeting a normal person. They really do live in towers and even their own colleagues don't include them in drink-ups. The big divider was the description of brokers; personality or technical. Personality meant normal whilst technical meant boring (unless talking about physics or maths). I was firmly in the 'personality' camp with a smattering of extra knowledge from working in a bank. I reached deep into my memory when discussing bonds. I once was able to discount trade bills long hand now I thank Google. I'll post what I call a Level 3 trade later.

Jan 09.44....but also what a business to be involve in Jan. EnQuest is positioning itself to be the contractor of choice when the major dismantling begins. Using Thistle/Devron as an example they areb 45/46 years old but expected to turn their toes up at an age of 58/59. I don't know when peak decomm will arrive but this shows how farseeing the company is. AB is basically an Engineer and uniquely trained (Petrofac) to understand what is required.

Jan 09.52 - I'm as sharp as a ball-bearing.

typo £20mio would be £50 mio in 13 years

L3Trader asked "You get $20M for something that might end up costing £42M?...."

Perhaps this will help:

"Upon completion in 2016, the LLX project will extend the life of the field by an additional 15 years and is targeted at recovering a further 35 million barrels of oil from the Thistle and Deveron fields. The current project is expected to generate approximately 1,000 new jobs during the construction phase."

They get the money up front and the commitment for decommissioning is at least 13 years away. Throw in some brown tax allowance (BTA) and you see the motives. We know that Enquest are currently paying c. 8.5% for the retail bond so a wet finger in the air guess is that borrowing £20mio would be a total cost of around £30mio once compounded interest is taken into account. Think of it as a 13 year loan.

*I take it calling yourself L3Trader is a joke?

My timing is as good as ever. Closing price £95.72

Still, right direction and I've plenty more. Might attract some attention when it goes through 100.

Like many of you I need to sell something to pay for some of my rights. I sold some of my Retail bond today and I thought it might be interesting to look at the current level.
Transaction Type: Sell
Stock Details
Enquest Plc 7% 15/04/22 Pik 3,917 £ 95.050000 £ 3761.19

Toggle
Commission:
Total:
50 days accrued interest: 38.08
10.99
Bargain Conditions: None 3,750.20
=======
Ignoring accrued interest the price is still above 95.00. In Jan 2016 it dropped to 30.00 when the future looked bleak. This is (for me) an encouraging level for a bond with our rating. There doesn't seem to be a huge risk premium and the rate is comfortably below 9 percent. I expect it to climb past 100 quite quickly. A return from today if held to maturity of around 30 percent. I expect the shares to do far better than that which is the natural reward of holding a riskier asset.

Kinda off topic but might interest some. Years ago I was in an audience (forget why) and we were listening to the Treasury Manager of JP Morgan. They were the only AAA rated bank in the world as I remember (the Swiss were highly rated too in those days). The JPM guy was a very down to earth Welshman and a question was raised about 'derivatives'. These were new then and very exotic. Banks were actively hiring engineers and maths prodigies to get on the latest next big thing. He had a simple rule. The derivative creators had 5 minutes to explain the process to him. If he didn't understand it they went away, reconfigured or started using terminology he understood. They then had a second attempt. If he never 'got it' the second time they never employed it. Good advice imo. Many of these things work but when the wheel falls off the fall out can be frightening. I stick to simple rules and allow for human frailties. I don't think our management are infallible but they do know what they're doing. You don't get oil out of the ground using a derivative.

I wouldn't read too much into this position. They are the only company holding a reportable amount in EnQuest and it's hardly Marks & Spencer levels. They've (Marshall Wace) been short since January 2012 (dropping briefly to 0.29 for a few months around July 2018) and we have no idea what the other side is. Most assume that it is an outright short but they may have bought something against it. Buying oil selling EnQuest; buy PMO sell Enq; buy the bond short a small amount of stock as an insurance. What I'm saying is that a short can be a hedge and based on prudence, arbitrage possibilities, naked short or some creative derivative that I could never understand. It's still not nice that they've chosen EnQuest but there is money to be made by arbitraging and black boxes that trigger deals when certain targets are reached.

*They've been short nearly 7 years so we are definitely on their radar. I wonder if the increase at end June was because they sniffed a Rights Issue and the Magnus talks? The normal move on a RI is down!

Hi Dan, I agree. OK, we know they were between a rock and a hard place but they didn't wrap it up. There is a value in Avanti and there is always somebody kicking the tyres. I still think we'll end up being sold. Re: the PW thing. We'll never know until his next position comes along. Maybe he'll set up an artisan bakery? People change jobs for a variety of reasons. One reason could be that he sees the business being sold and his position made redundant.

I'm getting more info from Selftrade. I have 3 holdings and the first one is through. It said this:

RIGHTS ISSUE
EnQuest PLC has announced a Rights Issue. You have been allotted 3 Rights (ISIN: GB00BG08MJ86) for every 7 Ordinary
Shares held as at 02 October 2018, and every 1 Right may be exchanged for 1 New Share at GBP0.21 per share.
If you would like to take up this offer, please notify us by secure message or telephone no later than 5pm on 12 October
2018. The amount of Rights taken up will be your Rights balance as at 12 October 2018 unless you advise us that you would
like to take up a lesser amount.
The total cost will be collected from your account. Please ensure you have sufficient cleared funds available to cover the amount due by the deadline date of 12 October 2018.

It may be slightly different for other platforms.

Are now showing on my Selftrade account with my entitlement showing as a profit. ENQN 15.05 ENQ 36.05 bids.

Here's what I mean: RNS telling us that Double A bought 154,580 shares at c.42p in London and sold in Stockholm at c.35p

The rights make the difference but you would need a degree to understand why Double A had to report this. Expect plenty more RNS's that are as equally confusing to most of us. They are irrelevant to a point and most of the big holders and book-runners have made their minds up and will pay little attention to day to day movements. The big stuff is ahead not in the rear view mirror.

Nothing showing on my account yet so have to ring Selftrade. A few minutes ago it was ordinary 36p and NP 15p. There are probably opportunities to buy one sell the other during the days as different drivers push one or t'other. You really need both to get an idea of an accurate spot price but for what reason? There will be a lot of noise and traffic until we come out the other side with one price only. I think along with analysts we have to attempt to calculate what we think would be a fair price in the future. I've read so much stuff and a lot says the stock market is a forward value appx. 3 months but then you have front end events like now. All very annoying.
I much prefer reading the posts that seem to indicate that the problems that were put on hold are now being dealt with and the future definitely looks a lot brighter. Maintenance and break downs will still occur but they are a normal part of the oil production business. Because we are now in a stronger position financially these are not existential threats.

Hi Dan, Patrick Willcocks had been there longer than Natalie. The musical chairs can be read in many ways which is why I said I'm concerned. If the future was so bright why has Willcocks gone? If you have evidence that this is succession planning please enlighten us? The only thing I can see that is routine is a number one leaving and his/her number two replacing them. The important point is why PW left. It could be totally innocent, or not! PW is a young man and not ready for retirement.