Member Info for romaron

Eggshell is my favourite.

Hi Pelle - Dunno. My wife pays for spotify but I got this for free in the UK. I bump into stuff and this I picked up accidentally, possibly from BBC R4. It is amusing though. The British Royal family doesn't really interest me but the Viking history does.
It is good sometimes to step away from the business media and see a different perspective. I was speaking to a friend who is an inveterate traveller and now lives in Australia. I've just introduced him into Jan Morris who is described as a travel writer but is much much more than that. Read any book of hers but 'Trieste and the Meaning of Nowhere' or 'Spain' give an unexpected insight into both.
I'm feeling a lot better about EnQuest lately. The obsession with the price of Brent isn't the story imo. The EnQuest management have steered us into a position somewhere between the conventional industry with its longer cycle and the much shorter shale cycle. Climate change whether true or not is accepted by the majority. Humans do damage the planet but 'twas ever thus' and shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a fact is that getting to zero-emissions is going to be extortionately expensive and resistance to paying for it is building. I'm not in either camp really but it does need managing. There is heavyweight opposition to Boris Johnson within his own party. I'm confident that oil and EnQuest are around and profitable for at least the next decade. Our positioning in Malaysia is also beneficial and if it was intentional then it's a masterstroke but I'll take serendipity as a consolation prize. I expect floating wind power to make an entrance into NS oil production in a few years and if the ORCA CEO is correct about polymer technology then Bressay and Bentley could be massive winners. The British aren't prepared to give up their foreign holidays or stop enjoying foreign imports any time soon.

*I can't believe how rude the suppository helpline was!

There's always something going on Sipp and sometimes it is a very prosaic and pragmatic action. You can practically come up with a dozen scenarios to explain and sometimes they do on this board. It could be the last sale of OO bought at 19p for example. A junior in the office during holidays told there are no medals for getting it wrong so went along with the day's rhetoric (Prince Andrew's turn today) etc. etc.
A gentle reminder that trading is usually thin in EnQuest and that the placing and OO probbaly have some loose ends. I honestly don't know and neither (probably) does EnQuest. They concentrate on the known and variables they can partly control.
Aloj (22.56) I also blame the Romans and the Vikings! Especially the Vikings. What have they done for us apart from rape, pillage and leaving field gates open?
Harald Bluetooth-inventor of Wi-Fi
Sweyn Forkbeard – his son who killed him with an arrow whilst his father was having a dump invented the arcane poker rule where a knave beats a royal flush.
His son C**** – who is the patron saint of proof readers and the reason message boards have Filter buttons.
Pelle Giantsbane– a distant relative of theirs and fan of rave parties. Suggest we keep an eye on his alcohol consumption at the 60p celebration. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2qSTcG_Oh8

*source https://open.spotify.com/episode/0ebE9zcIEFF4GUhiexGQ7J Listen from 27.00

Be Lucky

that there was no comment on volume today? 12.5m is higher than usual and almost half that was one trade of 5.169m at 11.14. It could be shares sloshing around following the placing and we know 38m odd were underwritten by somebody in the OO. Like rescue puppies they are waiting for their "forever home" (or at least for more than a few days). The stock will settle down and they'll be absorbed eventually. The climate change headlines are unwelcome but don't come as a surprise. Oil is getting the blame for a lot but I blame steam and the Industrial Revolution. They started it!

A Canadian firm Carbon Engineering and Lanza Tech a UK company have teamed up to produce an aviation fuel with no emissions. They use carbon dioxide sucked out of the air with hydrogen extracted from water. They aim to produce in a few short years 100 million litres of zero-emission jet fuel. I’m surprised Stanley hasn’t alerted us to this amazing technology.

For the technical minded. They have so far (since 2017) produced 50 litres which would fuel a jumbo jet for 12 seconds. Another minor problem is that the hydrogen takes up a lot of space which would displace passengers. Some nay sayers and Luddites are saying that these ideas are merely a distraction and will not impact for at least 10 years. The only sure answer is to STOP or reduce flying. Expect some big fuel taxes to take up the slack.

Couple of interesting articles. Irwin Steltzer the US commentator usually denigrates anything the Democrats do. He mentioned that they were selling the family silver i.e. oil from the strategic reserve. I googled a little further and it is a half-truth mixed with hindsight as is often the case but it got me thinking https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2129877-companies-start-withdrawing-crude-from-us-spr
I have no idea on what effect this will have but following the Stelzer lead I could invent a few. Companies are running short of inventory. It is a contractual obligation. The SPR can safely be reduced as Covid and Afghanistan exit mean lower demand; the list is endless and that is exactly what day to day oil movement is. I reckon AB and the CEO of Shell know a little more than us but they still cannot foresee the future but have to make decisions for months and years ahead. They leave the spot movement to the likes of Trafigura and their trading department whilst we get a Tourette like running commentary from Stanley’s sidekick.
My point is that the day to day price of oil is really for day traders and is not always indicative of what will happen in the (unknown) future. It can even be that a glut or oversupply is the result of smart money going long and being a bit premature. Imagine the Strait of Hormuz being blocked? We saw what happened in the Suez Canal with the Ever Given.
I think recent events and trends have shortened time lines for oil in the minds of investors. Developing a field won’t be that much quicker and financing will get even trickier. If you haven’t got a plan, carved a niche or arranged financing then you are exposed. EnQuest is a profitable investment on a 7-10 year timeline which is possibly even longer-term than some investors think is the future of oil. I’m treating EnQuest as a kinda bond and the returns I expect are amazing! Anything after 2030 is a bonus.

From October 15m households will face higher energy bills of at least 12% (gas 17% Electricity 8%). The future looks no better. Heat pumps would be cheaper than a hydrogen boiler. It would take six times as much electricity to make hydrogen from electrolysis as to provide the same amount of heat from a heat pump. Because hydrogen has a lower calorific value a blend of 20% green hydrogen and 80% natural gas would cut emissions by only 7%. The 20% hydrogen limit is because you’d need to replace almost every boiler and cooker in the country because of safety, pipe and valve concerns. 100% hydrogen would need a replacement grid. Source: today’s Times.
Stanley Green (a.k.a chilting) misses this because it requires a deeper understanding to make a decent contribution to a message board. He was for a long time an ardent supporter of heat pumps which are beyond the purse of most ordinary people. I applaud his ability to leap on any passing bandwagon and the sheer number of opinion posts his butterfly attention generates but they are usually trivia or other people’s opinions reconstituted.
When something is distant and doesn’t affect your pocket it is easy to hypothesise. The ESG fraternity and activists are often rich or on a mission. Ordinary people have a much more prosaic approach towards day-to-day concerns and once the true costs of going green start hitting home there will be much more support for fossil energy. In fact energy bills will start landing on mats in time for COP26. I am not an ardent supporter of either agenda. Just sticking with the facts and the reactions of ordinary people. The value of fossil fuel has decades yet to run unless we wish to hand all energy advantage to Asia and our security is still heavily dependent on oil.
The real world never goes too far away and with Covid beaten I expect an excellent run for EnQuest. Our cash position means we are making our own luck.

I would be interested if anybody has any idea where Bressay and Bentley are positioned following the Cambo precedent?

*I forgot. Hydrogen molecules are smaller so they’ll leak more on existing pipes before making them brittle and in need of replacement but no doubt Stanley has found a start up with promising developments in this area.

I agree new fields will be rarer but the proximity of Bressay and Bentley make tie-backs easier and we have a relatively new FPSO and one on the subs-bench. If we are using our own money it becomes a different animal. Polymers from inception (if the Orcadian CEO is right) shorten the life span and improves the sweep. Both add value!

I got this earlier from IR. I'd asked about the (on the face of it) lowish take up of the OO. This is the reply:

"A number of investors were unable to participate in the Open Offer due to residing in restricted jurisdictions such as the US, Canada, Sweden. As a result of these restrictions, a small number of those who own shares in EnQuest were unable to participate in the Open Offer. Of those who were able to participate, c.90% took up their entitlement, however due to the restrictions placed on some jurisdictions, this resulted in the share register showing c.60% of all shareholders taking up their entitlement. Given that c.90% of those who were entitled to participate in the Open Offer did take up their entitlements, EnQuest was very pleased to see such a high level of support for the Golden Eagle acquisition."

It may already have been discussed here but this is in plain language rather than "RNS speak". It also indicates to me that we may have a few more US and Canadian investors than expected.

Hi Pelle - I traded FX swaps most of my career and they always come down/ back to interest rates. None of us will have enough information to establish what exactly is behind this deal but loans and interest rates are part of the equation. It may well be some intricate derivative that you need a PhD to understand. It could be related to any number of things and we don't know who they bought the shares from. It may have been that they were just below 3% and the amount wasn't large and they bought from a holder who was below the reporting threshold. What I like about it is that it gives an insight that smart money is now involved and it's not from a negative perspective imo. EnQuest has plenty of plans and attractions, is a dynamic company that is well run.
My comment about dividend being the only real measure of true value is acceptance that we are moving to a more staid and easier to understand company. We are becoming a reliable and predictable company in a specialised space. Therapist posted a link to an Orcadian presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFn-mmJ_t7I&t=17s which is about 1:10:30 too long for most here. What I took from it was that field development may be c. 7years but using polymers from inception reduces the field life to about 11 years. That is very exciting news for a BBK hub. Investors are scared of 20+ years. 7-11 years is more acceptable imo. The orcadian CEO is talking mainly about the Pilot field (which EnQuest relinquished) but it reinforces that looking for finance in the current climate if you're a small exploration and development company is nigh on impossible. We are not in that club. I will look in from time to time and won't be available for a response. I have better things to do.

Be Lucky.

Re the RNS. Your/our dividends are on the way. A measure of true value is the long term discounted value of a future stream of dividends. You can forget your graphs and EBITDA ratios and as for options and futures they are for the hoi polloi. Swaps move large amounts and are only for professionals.

*There's absolutely no sense in being pessimistic. It wouldn't work anyway.

We built it. They came.

Actually E he does have a point. It is a bit like dealing with a 3 year old. He's got a limpet like hold on this message board along with chilting. I cannot compete with his number of postings. It would take me 18 years to catch up to chilting's numbers and KO is more prolific. My wife moans that I spend too much time on here anyway and they are at least 6 times more active so it is fine by me. I'll come back in 2022 to settle the Bollinger wager.

Be Lucky

Attracted by this LSE banner "Ex-Faroe Longboat Energy explain rationale for 7 well Norwegian gas field purchase and fund raise. Watch the full video here" I couldn't resist with a name like that and tonight's footie. To top it all the name the CEO is Helge Hammer.
This is the associated video of them exploring using a low carbon method that harnesses wind. DYOR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkMVsNEwvX0

The bookies have said England. Latest odds Italy 5/6 England 11/8 Denmark 9/1

A casa Ron we have split support. La donna è italiana and the daughter has chosen the better looking side. I blame Harry Kane for hitting every branch of the ugly tree as he fell out.

Dunno about day traders but some of the firms that helped with the placing will definitely have unloaded some today. There were 94.8 million fresh shares that the market received. Some will have tucked them away whilst others will have treated them as a temporary position. Throw in the nervousness from OPEC and the overall market (not just oil) sell off and I'd say we did pretty well today.

Build it and they will come.

mrc and chilting are fans of Zak Mir. That's all you really need to know.

"He's been around a long time, that's for sure." And so have I. It only means you're old.

Zak Mir is a shaman and haunts AIM. Steer clear! He can only follow so much stuff by relying on computers. Apart from MiFID ll ask yourself why serious companies have less analysts than some pump and dump AIMers? Law of averages he'll get some right as will the odd monkey typing a letter. He'll have a PI following because that's where you find the most gullible. Tiny and ineffectual. Same class as Malcy and David "Gatwick Gusher" Lenigas.

It is more than the oil price at work here. Bit surprised if Bentley is the reason. Other oil stocks a wee bit higher. Sold a bit of spread bet till more news.

Like many here I have to shift monies around for the OO. I have 6 transactions to complete. 1 Sipp, 2 ISA's and 3 trading accounts. I even had a spread bet affected.
I recently had a forced transfer from EQI to ii. No problem as platforms are pretty similar whilst dissecting the terms & conditions is best left to the likes of L3 and fans.
I decided to just "do it" and have no rushed deadline in a few weeks. Good job I did.
First Direct had sent me a new debit card and two registered were no longer valid. I also had to choose to accept the OO not an easy task on a new platform (is anything?). Of course now everything is confirmed by a verification code so 3 mobiles are involved (wife, daughter, me). I went to add the new debit cards and it said "you cannot add more than one card in a 30 day period". I hadn't added a "new card" but the system must have counted the transfer from EQI to ii as adding a card! Naturally this required hanging onto a phone for best part of an hour listening to supermarket music.
Eventually it appears to be sorted so I'm left with a simple sale of 10,000 units of RB (the balance was other sales and using FCF which in Covid has built up). You had to leave a limit order with EQI electronically but ii say you need to make a phone call to place order with ii on this particular stock.
I made the call and (eventually) got a school leaver who tried to big it up but was clearly having a problem contacting "global dealers". He kept apologising and I said they could hardly be "busy" on a New York holiday but he admitted that it had been like this for months and no doubt is even worse on a busy day. I placed the limit order at 97p until Friday and expect they've closed it this morning unless they're totally incompetent. For their assistance I have to pay the phone dealing cost of £49.99 plus commision. It cost a tenner at EQI.

My wife calmed me down with a drink and persuaded me not to cut my wrists.

My conclusion with this episode is that the markets are still Covid affected and have been supressed for some time. The world has never avoided safe and sure returns in the past so I expect a continual increase in numbers that hold their nose and "BUY" into fossil fuels. All this talk of supply and demand misses the point that there is a reduced supply of liquidity in EnQuest stock. Get them now would be my tip whilst they're cheap!

Build it and they will come.

It's a US holiday today. I doubt the announcemnet delay is accidental but does explain the muted reaction to the news. No buyers, no sellers, no market. Tomorrow will be fun!