Member Info for RogerJolly

I see no reason not to be optimistic with this little lot expected in the next six months.

I think you worry to much on behalf of holders here when you talk as if you are not one yourself.

Pad Location decision - TICK ONE
NT2 flow test results
Scirrocco deal complete
3D results
Gas sales agreement
FFD sign off
25 year development licence
Ch1 pad construction
Rig contracted Spud date
Drilling of 3rd appraisal well
NT1 well workover
Pipeline completion
First Gas Production from NT2
All fully funded and all due this year!

Farm Out of Nyuni License.

Newly Added with an unknown timeline
The government shows confidence in asking Aminex to Farm out rather than relinquish the Nyuni area as planned. Meanwhile neighbouring Orca continue with 3D seismic over Aminex prospect with their results due later this year helping to define Aminex position further on the license. Speculating that would put Orca in prime position for a farm in, but if significant finds are made, it may tempt ARA to come in on that license as well as Ruvuma

"He made the revelation over the weekend here, noting that the production is expected to increase further as government starts extraction of the natural gas at Ntorya Gas field in Mtwara Region"

"Some of the projects being implemented by TPDC in Mtwara and Lindi include Envisage Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant in Lindi, Gas Distribution project Lindi and Mtwara and construction of gas pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba Gas Processing Plant."

https://dailynews.co.tz/madimba-gas-production-capacity-increases-by-two-folds/

Well HY, things like this take longer than expected everywhere in the world, although I do agree it has been difficult in the past with the previous regime in Tanzania, but the key word for me is the past, which I prefer not to live in. What was, is gone and we are looking currently at a government that is doing everything it can to move things at a pace.

I agree that the pipeline won't start construction until the NT2 test results are known because the purpose of the test is not only for the flow rate but also to analyse the type of gas and the equipment needed to connect to the pipeline. As said previously, following research, the pipeline needs to break first sod by end of June to meet the October target which fits nicely between the two rainy seasons. While I still expect test results at the end of May, that still leaves a month to spare.

While not wishing to be seen as hedging my bets, the only reason I can think of for possibly delaying these tests, would be to put pressure on the government to deal with the three major paperwork issues.

1. GSA
2. FFD Licence
3. The Scirrocco Deal Completion

With targetted time lines for the government getting closer, perhaps a game of brinkmanship in negotiations is being played out behind the scenes that we don't know about?

With the expected imminent comment on the announcement of the first two, that hints at it being crucial before further money is spent.

Not quite sure about the relevance of the Scirrocco deal other than it awaits completion.

As are Statler and Waldorf hunting in pairs yet again. Premature ejaculations just as last month.
Rig decision news expected end April. Tick up as it arrives as predicted.
Test results not expecting announcement until end of May.
Must be bored after playing Jackson Chen all weekend

Don't poke a bear with a stick.
Every week his very mention gives him the oxygen he seeks. He's just another scammer full of BS. All speculation and no facts or evidence.
He will be here as usual, just ignore!

So we are now talking total negative speculation and ignoring what we are being told? Seems about par for the course around here. On what facts are you basing your theory on?

Pipeline build needs to start by early July to be built by end of September early October. Two external enquiries have revealed an estimated three month build dependent on terrain. As the supervising manager role was advertised on a nine month contract 1st February and the early rains due to end later this month, there is a five to six month window for construction. As it is the government pushing and seemingly desperate to get the gas (they have elections soon) I honestly do not see them wanting to miss the opportunity.

First has is expected October and as far as we know doesn't need a rig to deliver it.

HY granted there has been comment re going concern, but they are not unexpected are they and they have been in place for the last three years have they not. Without any income and still having outgoings, no matter how minimal they are, there will always be that note explaining the risk. An obligation of the auditors to report on it.

However, with enough funds raised last year to last until planned first gas end of 2024, I honestly don't see that as a major worry, particularly now that first gas is expected twelve months earlier.
Let's face it, if things go as planned they are just six months away from first gas and in a worse case scenario needing tide over funds, a small raise at that stage wouldn't be hard to achieve when the sp would be expected to be way north of where it currently sits.

Haggis, I am assuming there will be some kind of hub as they will be aiming to supply the pipeline from three different wells and according to the FFD that we currently have our eyes on, a further five more to follow!
I'm sure there will be a need for some pre-processing before it enters the Madimba pipeline to extract the anticipated condensates that has been suggested. My thoughts are that they would then use one connection into the pipe from the hub. At least that is logical to me.
If I remember past conversation right, any condensate, (valuable in itself) would be trucked away.

A key point in Friday's report imo
"Finally, we expect to sign a Gas Sales Agreement and obtain a Development Licence for the Ntorya Area, securing the long-term development of Ruvuma imminently."
Yes, it's that oft used word again, but this time I believe its coming

Surprised the partner has not been named, but the path Aminex had to follow was to produce an enormous prispectus document to go out to holders prior to a vote to accept. Granted we have a much more friendly government in place now who have just encouraged further farm outs on their licence, but it still took a couple of years or so to go through the red tape. The difference there maybe that the operatorship was handed over. In this case I don't expect that, so hopefully things will be much quicker. It maybe that the partner is just a funder that doesn't get involved in the operational side in anyway that will require government approval. If so, once documents are signed and holders approve, it may be able to go ahead 8n a matter weeks.

Very True Rojo, you just gained a first recommend from me? Go careful you might earn a beer if you keep it up lol

Which is why I don't trade. If I find a stock I'm positive on, I'll ride it out until I hit my targets. Trading can rewarding, but it is too risky a game for me.

and lots more to come

Pad Location decision - TICK ONE
NT2 flow test results
Scirrocco deal complete
3D results
Gas sales agreement
FFD sign off
25 year development licence
Rig contracted Spud date
Drilling of 3rd appraisal well
NT1 well workover
Pipeline completion
First Gas Production from NT2
All fully funded and all due this year!

Farm Out of Nyuni License.

Newly Added with an unknown timeline
The government shows confidence in asking Aminex to Farm out rather than relinquish the Nyuni area as planned. Meanwhile neighbouring Orca continue with 3D seismic over Aminex prospect with their results due later this year helping to define Aminex position further on the license. Speculating that would put Orca in prime position for a farm in, but if significant finds are made, it may tempt ARA to come in on that license as well as Ruvuma.

All speculation and opinion Crusty none of us will know until we know. Would like to think you are wrong, but if it does come, then by that time I expect I will have made a tidy packet. You too I don't doubt. Good luck

Sooner the 1.5 BG, but yes I'd be happy to consolidate a new low of 1.30 or more.

That goes back to the old question crusty, if they wanted to buy Aex out, why haven't they done it a long time ago and at less than half the value it is now? From conversations I've had in the past that won't happen, but we can never say never because circumstances change on a daily basis. All I can think is that there is some sort of strategic plan that benefits all concerned because otherwise it wouldn't make not much sense to have not done.
Could it be those tax implications of claiming back exploration costs playing a big part? I don't have that corporate level taxation knowledge to make anything more than a guess.

Which is why I want to understand what, if any tax benefits there are to be had for Ara.
The government could quite easily have said you surrender it and well give it to Ara if they want it.
Of course we don't know it is Ara that they have in mind, so I'm speculating that it might be.
With Orca doing 3D out there, there are possibilities that way too.
So much planned action going on this year, this has thrown something else interesting into the mix. Two years to pull off at least I would think?

My thoughts too and perhaps the government is looking to have a tried and trusted team. Ufufuo has mentioned positive tax implications in the past with all the losses to write off before Aex get clobbered for tax on income. As ARA own 30% any further investment may be beneficial too?
I might try and chat with him as he is pretty hot on accountants.

Edgar I have a feeling you underestimate your final point. While I agree it perhaps wont be an immediate catalyst, I think it could well prove to be a major one, medium to long term bringing more drills and potentially much larger income.
The fact the government wishes Aminex to keep the licences seems a huge vote of confidence to me.

Thats the best bit Rojo at least that news is on schedule. The test news I was expecting end of May, but as that reads, it hasn't started yet, so that looks like being pushed back at least a month.

First time there has been talk of a full reassessment of the field following the Mid year 3D data completion which will be carried out and results later in the year. Apart from that no real change on schedules according to what they are saying.

I know they are not in control but to be told something starts in four weeks and eight weeks later it still hasn't begun is annoying.

I need to go shake hands with Jobe again