Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The local press (The Herald) reporting on the RNS.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/20261016.parkmead-predicts-record-gas-profits-new-drilling-ahead-schedule/
Note that the photo of TC in this week's article was taken in 2010....see pg 4 of the 2010 AR here:
https://parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/financial/Annual_Report_2010.pdf
Same photo (or variations from the same shoot with the same tie!) has been used for nearly 12 years....wonder what he really looks like now...LOL.
My thoughts on the RNS FWIW...
This was a very unusual RNS for PMG. I cannot remember the last time they issued an 'trading update' RNS...if they ever have? Usually we get the financials twice a year and anything (rarely!) inbetween is news of a deal done. The fact they feel the need to issue an RNS with no real news suggests they either have some concerns over the shareprice and somebody taking a tilt at them, or as mentioned earlier, they want it up for a cash raise. I strongly doubt they have just hired someone new in teh marketing department!
Good for them to reinforce the high gas price and associated revenues, but it's hardly news.
Once again they highlight the benefits of the royalty buyout last year, but fail to mention that the royalty had been hidden from shareholders since they acquired the stakes and they had repeatedly stated that they had a 15% WI in those three fields....just omitting that they were only getting 7.5% of the revenue.
More smioke and mirrors once again using the gross production figures for the NL gas. 80%+ of PMG's gas comes from Diever, where they hold only 7.5%. The other three wells/fields are 15%, but don't contribute much. The last several months production has been les than 300 boepd net to PMG.
Accelerating the two new wells is good news, but again they don't make clear that they only have a 7.5% stake in them, so the headline gas in place figure will be massively reduced when it comes to PMG's net - assuming the wells are successful (Cos 40-50%).
And I do wsh they would would stop saying things like 'our drilling campaign' when they actually should be saying Vermillion's drilling campaign. PMG will have next to nothing, if anything, to do with it. More smoke and mirrors.
Anyway, interesting that they felt the need to issue an RNS about the fact they are making money...
Buzz, no, that is natural depletion of the wells - see the graph linked to. Essentially the rate from the four wells has halved over a two year period.
There is a plan to drill another well from the Diever well site late this year/early next, which will hopefully bump it back up again.
The lowest it's ever been - 267 boepd net to PMG in April.
https://i.imgur.com/ZpWOfKI.jpg
Interesting news this morning...
Doyle, PMG do not issue quarterly results. The next financials published will be the interims at the end of November.
Maybe you are referring to Vermilion's quarterly report for the NL gas interests? The last one (for Q1) was announced 11 May ["The increase in Germany and Australia production was slightly offset by natural declines and unplanned downtime in the Netherlands." But it gives no detailed info about the four wells that PMG have an interest in, there is only the monthly production data at the NLOG site for that, issued end of each month].
The Vermilion Q2 report should be out mid August.
LOL...the comments on this board get more and more ludicrous by the day, even with the worst culprits filtered out!
GLA...
.... but PLEASE...DYOR (rather than be taken in by some of the misinformation and BS spouted on here..)
Don't know how many times it has to be said...these unrisked Finncap valuations are completely wrong. If you actually look at the figures they are still including Sanda North and South in the calculation, which were relinquished over a year ago...
That alone is an ERROR of over £6....
DYOR...
Absolutely agree - "If there is news however there will be a dramatic move....".
I've been saying the same for years and the first word in that sentence is the key one, and that is where my faith has now wavered...
I can still see all the good reasons for holding and have done so for several years, but at the end of the day no news is no news, and no news for a long time ...means there probably won't be any...IMHO.
Anyway...Good Luck!
@doyle172, you pretty much wrap it all up very succinctly there:
"We have been in advanced discussions with commercial partners for the GPA for several years" and
"...waiting to happen."
Yup.
As for the rest...
8th biggest NS project isn't a project until it becomes commercially viable and the deal is signed. Which will mean a massive cash raising exercise of some form unless they sell it off. And previous cash raising exercises (at much higher share prices than today) will mean much wariness for investors. (Maybe that should read weariness... ;-))
MCAP is silly - it's what the market thinks it's worth, and see above.
Dutch assets cash generation - as I've said before many times, it's only enough to keep the company afloat and paying TC's salary without a cash raise. Production is also decreasing rapidly, so largely dependent on prices staying high.
Planned NL drill - still can't find any applications - can you?
157mbbl at Skerryvore is on a 25% chance of geological success, certainly not a done deal.
100% owned hub. There is no hub yet... see above. And if in the unlikely event that the years of 'advanced discussions' actually do result in a deal, it definitely won't be 100% owned anymore...
Waiting to happen...already said, but fully agree.
The question is, do you think TC is likely to make it so...he's 61 and his photos in the annual report are some 10 years old so it seems he's trying to hide it. And he's pulling down £500K salary from PMG alone, with all the additional linked companies providing additional income (rent on the office building etc).
Do you really believe in this?
I'm still holding (after many years), but sold down a chunk in the last spike - I'm no longer the 100% believer I was, and don't think the risk is worth it any more.
Diever is not getting back to anywhere near that L3trader. There are long term forecast production rates available to see on the NLOG site from the original drilling applications.
Vermillion are planning to drill another well from the Diever wellsite late this year/early next, so there should be some uplift then, but still can't find any permissions for it yet, so maybe delayed.
IMHO the NL gas has always been a minor sideshow - just a way of keeping enough cash coming into the company to avoid fundraising (and pay TC a salary). The lack of clarity over the royalty they bought out last year was disappointing - hidden from investors for years. Finncap value the NL gas now at 18.8p/share, so almost half the market cap. Go back a couple of years and Arden put it at 5p/sh...and production rates have more than halved since then. Finncap's numbers are definitely flawed, still including values for licenses that PMG relinquished more than a year ago.
Wind is a sideshow, I seriously doubt Pitreadie is ever going to have an planning application put in. Green washing.
So the bait is Skerryvore and GPA. Skerryvore may happen, but GPA, the big prize, I have serious doubts about. They've been considering commercial offer from Scott consortium for too long now. If they can't agree terms in current climate then it isn't happening.
Skerryvore - bearing in mind that PMG have not drilled a single well as operator since they were formed, I suspect they will hand it over to someone else if it actually goes ahead. Current uncertainty over windfall taxes etc puts a big questionmark over that IMHO. Nobody will throw money at a project without knowing the terms. Geological chance of success is 24% (Finncap again), so it's fairly risky even without the additional financial risks.
Anyway, GLA.
March production = 291 boepd net to PMG,
(Feb = 278, Jan = 310, Dec = 299)
2021-2022 production graph (MMscf net to PMG for each of the four wells):
https://imgur.com/OYpDSWv
The supposed windfarm is years away yet - no planning application in yet.
GPA, if it happens at all, is years away from producing. This is the make or break project for PMG....and is now dragging on....nearly two years of examining draft commercial proposals....hmmmm...doesn't seem like a 'bite yer arm off ' proposal given the current situation with energy crisis and oil price. If they can't get it agreed in the current climate then it likely isn't happening IMHO...
Skerryvore may be more interesting, but even if they do finally make a drilling decision, years away from production.
In the meantime NL gas production continues to decline rapdly, albeit with a single additional well planned to be drilled late this year (can't see any permits applied for yet though - anyone found anything?).
In the meantime, lots of wind on here ;-) about the erroneous non risked valuation from their paid advisor Finncap, which still includes the Sanda prospects in the figures...
Nothing to see here. NL production figures due in a few days, will post when released.
Updated production graphs for each of the four wells:
https://imgur.com/kmaQ3AC