RE: NL Gas production27 May 2022 23:34
Diever is not getting back to anywhere near that L3trader. There are long term forecast production rates available to see on the NLOG site from the original drilling applications.
Vermillion are planning to drill another well from the Diever wellsite late this year/early next, so there should be some uplift then, but still can't find any permissions for it yet, so maybe delayed.
IMHO the NL gas has always been a minor sideshow - just a way of keeping enough cash coming into the company to avoid fundraising (and pay TC a salary). The lack of clarity over the royalty they bought out last year was disappointing - hidden from investors for years. Finncap value the NL gas now at 18.8p/share, so almost half the market cap. Go back a couple of years and Arden put it at 5p/sh...and production rates have more than halved since then. Finncap's numbers are definitely flawed, still including values for licenses that PMG relinquished more than a year ago.
Wind is a sideshow, I seriously doubt Pitreadie is ever going to have an planning application put in. Green washing.
So the bait is Skerryvore and GPA. Skerryvore may happen, but GPA, the big prize, I have serious doubts about. They've been considering commercial offer from Scott consortium for too long now. If they can't agree terms in current climate then it isn't happening.
Skerryvore - bearing in mind that PMG have not drilled a single well as operator since they were formed, I suspect they will hand it over to someone else if it actually goes ahead. Current uncertainty over windfall taxes etc puts a big questionmark over that IMHO. Nobody will throw money at a project without knowing the terms. Geological chance of success is 24% (Finncap again), so it's fairly risky even without the additional financial risks.
Anyway, GLA.
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