Member Info for robs12

Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course, but just imagine where they'd be now ...if only...

Originally posted March 2022:

"Hmm. I'm not wanting to talk the share down if that's the discussion....I just want them (PMG) to get on with it.
I try to report useful and factual posts about where they are (and dismiss the obvious BS and correct the misinformation when it crops up) - I have a large stake I want to see a decent return on. And that IMHO depends on them getting GPA across the line.
Skerryvore may get a drilling decision this year if they do what they say, but could be some time (years) before any drill starts twirling, and even then it's not a given that it'll find anything. We'll see.

I don't think PMG have actually been involved with a drill since 2013 - as 20% minority holder on Pharos - which was announced with much (somewhat ironic in hindsight) brouhaha:
"The discovery at Pharos is potentially valuable to Parkmead because, depending on the volume of gas in place, it could be jointly developed with the Platypus gas field, which is situated only 14km from the Pharos location. This would increase the value of the already economic development at Platypus. The Platypus gas field was discovered in 2010 and it was successfully appraised by Parkmead and its co-venturers with a horizontal well in 2012. Platypus was flow tested at a rate of 27 million cubic feet of gas per day (approximately 4,600 barrels of oil per day on an equivalent basis).
subsequently relinquished despite being a gas discovery. "

That all went well - Pharos was quietly relinquished some time ago, then Platypus too."

15% of 4600 boepd is more than double the NL production net to PMG.... oh well.

[To add..Still have a stake, but it's a free carry now. Not a pretty end to the day today...TTF still holding up so hope that is not due to some other news.. ]

BJoe, to add a little more detail on the history - originally posted April this year:

"PMG have not drilled a single well as operator since they were formed...

Since then they've also raised £78 million and gained another £6.2m when FPM were taken out. So where is that £84million now?
300boepd from the Netherlands, three windmills and a farm that belonged to TC's wife? And potential.

With much publicity and promise they have acquired multiple licences as operator, none of which have gone anywhere and many of which have been relinquished:

After TC became Chairman in 2010 the first annual report said "During November 2011, the Group completed its first acquisition in the UK North Sea in line with its philosophy of acquiring known properties, in this case the Platypus gas field and Possum gas prospect. The Parkmead technical and commercial experts have a long history and detailed knowledge of these assets making these an ideal first acquisition for the Group."
Hmm...
Platypus 15% (Dana operator) - discovery (flowed 27mcfpd) - relinquished.

Pharos 20% (Dana operator) - discovery - relinquished.

How many ££ sunk into Athena (10% -> 30%), was flowing 7.5K boed (and yet more to be sunk decommissioning?) - partly decommissioned.

NL assets acquired in 2012:
- 15% in Wijk en Aalburg producing field - shutdown.
- 15% in Ottoland oil field development, drilled, tested, due to come onstream 2012 - never happened.
- when acquired these fields (it did not include Diever then) were producing 2000 boepd, and PMG stated "300 boepd net to Parkmead". Strange that, since there was no mention of the royalty that effectively made it 150 boepd....and has been kept quiet for the last ten years. Incidentally, 300 boepd is what they are getting now, including the addition of Diever, which is 80% of the total production.
- 15% in Papekop - note that there is still €3m payable to Dyas if it ever gets drilled and flows...
- 7.5% of Diever - does anyone know if there is a 'hidden' royalty attached to that? When they bought out the royalty on the other three fields last year, they only stated that "The Drenthe VI licence, containing the large Diever West gas field, is not affected by THIS royalty." (My caps). Could there be a separate royalty for Diever, which was also a co-venture with NAM like the other fields...?
- In 2017 they said "including a new well at the Geesbrug gas field to maximise production and early development planning at the Ottoland discovery" - neither happened.

Lowlander - "The addition of Lowlander increases Parkmead’s 2C resources by 29% to 95.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (“MMBoe”)"- relinquished...

Polecat (50% -> 100%) - appraisal well (before PMG got it) flowed 4373 boed - relinquished...

Marten (50% ->100%) - discovery (before PMG got it) - relinquished...

Sanda North and South - relinquished...

Skerryvore - back in 2014 - "Skerryvore site ahead of the prospect being drilled in 2015.."

Originally posted Dec 2021:

PMG have minor interests in 4 fields:

Brakel - 15% (Vermilion 45%, EBN 40%)
Grolloo - 15% (Vermilion 45%, EBN 40%)
Geesbrug - 15% (Vermilion 45%, EBN 40%)
Diever West - 7.5% (Vermilion 52.5%, EBN 40%)

In rough numbers for 2021 each field contributed to their total volume approx:

Brakel - 7.9% (this the royalty was bought)
Grolloo - 0.9% (this the royalty was bought)
Geesbrug - 8.7% (this the royalty was bought)
Diever West - 82.6%

So Diever is by far the most significant field. Diever production has reduced from approx 8200 MMscf in 2017 to 5131 in 2021.

You can see what each of these fields produces each month here:

hxxps://www.nlog.nl/datacenter/brh-overview?lang=en

The production figures are updated monthly, so you can work out how much they have produced well ahead of when the results are announced.

September figure for Diever-02 - produced 14.75m Nm3 of gas and 97 M3 condensate, compared with 19.9m Nm3 + 117 M3 in Aug.

Brakel-01 down from 795K Nm3 to 216K Nm3 from Aug to Sept.
Geesbrug-01 up from 840K to 1.3m.
Grolloo-01 down from 535K to 347K.

So not really good news if wanting to make the most of the current gas price spike....

Also Dec 2021:

It just means that whilst they held a 15% working interest in the fields since 2012 when they acquired them, they were effectively paying 7.5% of that out as a royalty. Now they don't pay the royalty.

I haven't been able to find any references to this royalty in any of PMG's communications - certainly nothing in the original announcement when they bought them from Dyas. For 9 years they had been telling us they had 15%, which I guess is true, but pretty rubbish to hide the fact they were only receiving 7.5% of the revenue...

Originally posted Jan 2022:

The problem is, there have been 'so many things in the pipeline' for a decade, and none have come to fruition, which casts serious doubts on whether any will...

E.g. Linda Cross had Pitreadie in 2015, PMG bought it in August 2019. Two and half years later (or six and a half years depending on your point of view!) and there's still no sign of any planning application for the wind farm. If ever there is an application made, it is still many years away from a farm actually getting operational.

Every single project is the same: GPA (how many years now...? And of which Lowlander a major part now gone), Skerryvore (awarded 2018, no news yet), Playtpus (acquired 2011, now gone), Pharos (2011, gone), Spaniards (failure 2012), Athena disaster, Shetland (awarded 2015, one of the two now gone, silence on the remaining prospect), Polecat and Marten (gone), etc.

Whilst the potential is still there without doubt, there are serious questionmarks in my mind over whether any of it will actually come to fruition.
If it is the NL gas that is now center stage and the 'new trophy', then it's time to run for cover, the production rates are falling fast.

Originally posted August 2010 (in another place):

"Looks like I'm on my own here, and the spread is still ridiculous, but here's some thoughts on Parkmead Group (PMG):
A good place to start is here (which though over a year old, gives an idea of what they are about):
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10034142§ion=ShareDealing
Current situation is they hold 4,377,039 shares (2.51%) in Faroe Petroleum (FPM). At today’s bid that is worth £7.22m.
Net cash at end 2009 was £3.2m.
It also owns a company (Aupac, since end 2009) providing petroleum economics consultancy services, so presumably maybe even a little income.

PMG has 603,635,898 shares in issue. At today’s bid that is £7.55m

So looks like good value for money, and if nothing else, a little leverage in FPM with drill results about to come in from Anne Marie (which would have very significant effect if positive!).

Dana Petroleum (DNX) owns 27.5% of Faroe Petroleum .
Tom Cross (CEO of DNX) & spouse own approx 28% of Parkmead - largely through shares they acquired due to the takeover of Aupac, of which they owned 66%.

In June 2009, both Tom Cross & Colin Goodall (Parkmead Chairman, & also Chairman of DNX) put £100,000 each into Parkmead, buying on market at 1p/sh.

So has been a very poor show since it was formed (when SP was ITRO 9p), and it looks a bit of a one horse play on Faroe Petroleum....which could make it a little exciting in the near future...

... but I am wondering what comes next (when/if DNX gets taken out & Tom Cross is looking for something else to do)?"

...........
And so it transpired. Did very well out of that, and then actually shorted PMG when it all went a little OTT soon after TC joined - the only share I've ever shorted - did well out of that too.
Didn't buy back in for many years though - 2018.

Hope the wait will be worth it! GLA!!

Originally posted April 2021:

From the 2020 Annual Report, about GPA:

"This is one of the North Sea’s largest undeveloped oil projects with three core fields that have been fully appraised. 13 wells have been drilled with an estimated 400 million barrels of oil-in-place."

Back in 2018, from the statement when PMG acquired 100% of Perth and Dolphin, one could calculate that the 2P for Perth and Dolphin was 44.8MMbbls.
They stated that Perth held 197mm oil in place, 24% of that = 47MMbbls, so roughly in line.

They also estimated that including the northern areas of GPA, total OIP was 498MMbbls - the AR now says 400MMbbls for just three already appraised fields.

Finncap's NPV uses a figure of 79.7MMboe recoverable (range 70-130MMboe) for GPA.

This seems very much at the low end, cautious approach, which is good.

Just dreaming, but if total OIP is still regarded as 498MMBbls (including more than just the three already appraised fields), and the recovery factor 24% then that's 120MMboe recoverable (+50%).
If the recovery factor actually turns out to be say 45% after stimulation, then that's 224MMboe (+181%) .

Equivalent risked current NPV, everything else being equal (which of course it isn't...!), £3.48/sh rather than £1.61/sh.
With $65/bbl rather than $55/bbl per the Finncap analysis, that makes for risked current NPV of £4.32/sh.
Unrisked £15+...

Nice to dream!

Originally posted April 2021:

LC, to answer some of your questions (though you should be able to do that for yourself....but hey ho..)

Land prices: PMG bought Pitreadie, which was 2,320 acres, for £8.5m or £3,664 per acre. The parts they have sold went for £4,162/acre. The plot still being offered has an asking price of £6,583/acre.
If they get permission for, and go ahead with a windfarm on the part they are keeping, it will certainly be worth a lot more than they paid.

Ryan Stroulger - started with PMG in 2010, salary was £39,860 in 2013, £101K in 2020. So £250K invested is quite a sizeable sum relative to his (after tax) salary.

The loans and farm deal - you seem to have some misunderstanding with all of that - who loaned to who... and what a commercial interest rate is?

Energy Management Associates Ltd (EMAL) is a related company which transacts with several other related companies with TC & LC as directors. Their accounts are on public record, so nothing is hidden.

TC & LC personally loaned money TO both EMAL and Pitreadie farm.
Their personal loan TO EMAL is (I think) still outstanding and is some £4m+, and pays no interest (that is zero interest).
Their personal loan to Pitreadie was paid back to them in shares (at 50p/share) when the farm was bought by PMG. So to be clear, they had personally loaned the money TO the Pitreadie company, and rather than getting cash repayment when PMG bought the farm, they accepted PMG shares instead.

Then there is the £2.9m loan FROM PMG to EMAL. That is at 2.5%, which just happens to be exactly the same rate that the Bank of Scotland were charging for the bank loan to Pitreadie - so a fair commercial rate.

This is all easily accessed public information, not my opinion...

And in terms of a return for shareholders, it is probably a considerably higher rate than PMG would get for having the cash sat in a bank account...

Anyway, hopefully PMG's considerable cash will see better returns than sitting in the bank when GPA deal is announced!

Originally posted July 2021 (before Platypus relinquished):

And just to consolidate for those with little time for detail:

2017 - In discussions with a number of leading, international service companies and oil companies.
2018 - Parkmead now in full control of the GPA oil hub project with operatorship and 100% equity.
2019 - Parkmead is in commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to POTENTIALLY agree terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) to the Scott facilities.
2020 - Parkmead is in commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership, including CNOOC, in order to AGREE terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) to the Scott facilities.
Parkmead is also in discussions with other operators in the vicinity where new opportunities have arisen during the year.
2021 - Parkmead continues to assess DRAFT COMMERCIAL OFFERS received from the Scott field partnership for the potential tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”).

Seems like progress, but we'll see in due course.
If the recovery rate can be increased (see previous posts), it could be a serious gamechanger over and above current valuations.

If they take a big % of Platypus and get it up and running (they don't seem to have a great track record in that regard) then it will be much more significant that NL. With the original 15% stake the forecasted figures would have been roughly the same as NL, so a larger % (again, if they can actually make it happen...) would be high value add.

After many years here, I am starting to doubt that they will ever make anything actually happen...seems like progress...but it is slow.

And just in case anyone is interested, whilst this is very old - 2013! (and hence a lot of things have changed ref who owns what etc), but it is very informative about the Perth field generally, what wells have been drilled etc.

Note:
"The Perth field, a sour oilfield in the UK North Sea (operated and 52.03% held by Parkmead) is the perfect example of such a hub strategy. The facilities used to produce the Perth field will be the only export route available to produce over 900mn bbls of STOOIP (STOOIP figure refers to oil in place a proportion of which would be producible) of already discovered sour crude oil. No value is ascribed to this strategic potential in our target price; however, conceptually this strategy is quite important to the Parkmead investment thesis."

and:
"We believe that the two most noteworthy fields that produced from similar sands in the same area as Perth are the Claymore and Scapa fields. In our opinion, the analysis of the performance of these fields suggests that actual ultimate recovery of oil from the Perth Field could materially outperform the expectations built into our target price."

https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_Research_21.10.2013.pdf

And originally posted April 2021:

Opp_hunting - " its as if the promoters are deliberately uninterested in explaining the hidden value in this company."

Absolutely! I suspect it is deliberate. TC always believed that Dana was sold way below what it was worth, and doesn't want to be bitten again.

There is quite a lot of info available (e.g. the 2013 report linked to a few posts back, and that detailed info must have come from the company, no analyst is going to get that sort of info elsewhere), but in recent years it has not really been highlighted at all, really the very minimum is divulged, and that often needs a little digging in the Annual Report. RNS's are few and far between, and one often has to join the dots.

For example, the September licence award - Fynn Beauly. From PMG we get "contain a section of the discovery to the south, with oil-in-place of between 77 and 202 million barrels." and "The proposed work programme includes seismic reprocessing and technical studies. Parkmead's partner on the offered blocks is Pharis Energy (50% working interest)"

Pharis is now renamed Orcadian Energy (and previously The Steam Oil Production Company Ltd), and they have to say "Pharis sees considerable potential benefit in the use of new technology, including the potential application of polymer flood technology to the Fynn Beauly discovery. This polymer flood approach can dramatically reduce heavy oil carbon dioxide emissions per barrel and substantially improves recovery factor." Now that (if it works!) might be very relevant to other fields in the GPA.

What a cesspit this board has become. The muppets who add nothing of value seem intent on character assassination rather than contributing anything of use to investors or potential investors.

PMG in the FTSE 100!! Big buys and accumulation!! Poised to break through!! £1 by Christmas!! BS!!

My username seems to have been mentioned a few times (bobert? ...I like it!), can only imagine the BS that is being spouted!
Mrc, not sure why you're wasting your time engaging, there's a filter button, I've just added a couple more names to it - if they can't add anything of value other than hot air and BS then it's not worth time to read the posts. Muppets...

IMHO ;-)

Anyway, back to business. If the next few threads (sorry, just reposts, not going to type it all out again) are of any value to new or potential investors then hopefully my time here is well spent.

Anyone any more ideas why at the end of July, PMG would have chartered three supply vessels out of Montrose to go up to the Stena Spey rig parked up in Scapa Flo and return?
(See fixtrues and click 'show all' button):
https://paretoship.com/live

PMG have no operations in UK unless it is possibly connected to further decommissioning of Athena?
Stena Spey is hot stacked and showing as available until end next year:

https://www.stena-drilling.com/our-fleet/stena-spey/

Seems strange?

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/08/01/profit-from-a-north-sea-farm-out/

Except they relinquished the licence, so can't just 'take it back'. They would need to apply for it again, with other interested parties. And there may well be competition for it now with deep pockets and proven capabilities of making it happen.
I suspect they simply couldn't get the funding themselves when they had the opportunity to take it on as operator previously - for reasons already explained.

What a great day! Surprising what an upbeat IC article can do. Let's hope it is shortly backed up with some real news about Skerryvore and NL drills, both due imminently.
Shall be opening a nice bottle tonight. Well done all!

Times article states: "It has brought in Gneiss Energy, an Edinburgh boutique which works internationally and specialises in corporate advice to the sector.".

And what are Aupec doing these days I wonder...according to their website: "Delivering UNMATCHED skills, experience and expertise in fiscal regime design and analysis, project economics, MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS, portfolio optimisation and beyond." (MY CAPS)

In 2020 they had turnover of £800K and 5 employees. In 2021 accounts, both revenue and empoyee figures are missing, and the cash in the banks has reduced from £3.5m to £2.9m. Hmm...

(Aupec are a PMG subsidiary company in case anyone is unaware).

Bear with me, have been sat in the garden in the sun drinking Leffe..

Has TC had enough, and today's announcement is actually that the company is up for sale?
GPA is the biggest asset (potentially) by far. Clearly not a lot of interest in partnerships to date. But this is potentially the real value in PMG, and has been for many years, everything else is noise.
They won't be able to raise any funds to develop it themselves - the value destruction at PMG since 2014 means no one is likely to lend to them, and a rights issue simply won't get taken up. Remember that revenue in 2014 was £24.7m?! Market cap was many multiples of today's - £150m in mid 2014?
The NL gas is a minor sideshow and always has been (irrespective of the dubious cover up over what % they actually had!).
The windmills same. The rescue of his wife's company and subsequent potential windfarm on the site is clearly not going to happen - how many years does it take to get a planning application in..?
Skerryvore may be interesting as an explo well, but PMG have not drilled a well as operator since they formed, and there's significant risk. I suspect they'll offload it.
The Scotland cricket racism link is not great PR given they are main sponsor and his son is in the team...
The old options have all been cancelled out recently and the PMG team have awarded themselves in the money options instead. TC still taking home £500K a year salary - well out of kilter with equivalent sized companies.
Dana was sold for ~£1.7bn. PMG was worth multiples of what it is now a few years ago...TC's in his 60's...he's obviously not going to replicate Dana from where they are now (unless anyone has any great ideas? Few more windmills maybe? :-)), so maybe the best option is to offer the main prize but add the rest of the company too and sign off?
Maybe that's the reason for the unusual RNSs?

You are misinformed SRS. Sold none in January but did sell a big chunk in June at a profit (albeit relatively small). And more today. No regrets.
Westmount indeed was a disaster...but looks very good value now. Will probably get back in there later this year.

Maybe you didn't see earlier post SRS?? Not buying in again until a deal is signed...and that will depend largely on whether it's a good deal...if there's a deal at all!
GLA!

Seems like the market thought nothing of the RNS too...

That's two inconsequential RNS's this month. Something must have changed to be issuing RNS's so frequently....
...maybe third time lucky and something with a little substance next time?

Is already up on the PMG site:

https://parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/finnCap_Research_29.07.2022.pdf

basically copied and pasted the RNS,... true value add....