RE: Parkmead Summary Pt 130 Jul 2019 19:29
Continuing on from Pt 1 - the potential for increased recovery rates at GPA...:
A few years back, Senergy estimated 24% recovery rate for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. Charles Stanley had to say about it: “For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy’s most recent publicly available estimates).”
But if the GPA area is opened up and the facilities allow sour oil production, then the entire area (the “sour crescent”, some 30km radius of Perth/Scott) is estimated to hold some 950MMBoe of stranded oil in discovered but undeveloped fields. Maybe more undiscovered. That is some prize…
Add to this the possibility of bringing Athena back on line (PMG 30%, and Jersey O&G 15%, with Ithaca as operator, and is just outside the 30km radius) with estimated 26MMBBL proven and probable – according to Sproule 2012).
TC has previously stated that this is a possibility - In the Press and Journal, dated Nov 19 2016: “Mr Cross said: “If you’ve got the choice, it makes sense not to produce oil when the price is on the slide. Some companies have to produce oil even at a loss if they are sitting on debt, because banks want to see cash flow, but we are debt-free.” He added the Athena shut-in would continue while Parkmead looks at ways of incorporating the field into its Perth area cluster, one of the largest un-developed oil projects in the North Sea. And he said Parkmead was “right in the middle of engineering talks” to bring together the various fields that make up the area.”
PMG announced (RNS) in November 2018:
“-Engineering study confirmed the technical feasibility of a tie-back of the GPA project to the Scott facilities”
“-Parkmead has entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to explore terms for a tie-back of GPA to Scott”
Also - "The Scott facilities lie just some 10km southeast of the GPA project and a tie-back could yield a number of mutually beneficial advantages for both the Scott partnership and Parkmead. Utilisation of this export route has the potential to transform the GPA project commercially and economically, by dramatically reducing the capital expenditure required to bring the GPA project onstream and by lowering the operating costs thereafter."
And “A number of the proposals have also offered finance to the Group for major parts of the development, further reducing the capital expenditure required to bring the project onstream."
To be continued in Pt 3...
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