Member Info for robs12

If Canje came in at say 2Bnbbls, then that would be another say 17mBBLs to WTE, so if both Kaieteur and Canje came in it could be ~84mBBLs to WTE. Valued at $5/bbl in the ground = £320m. Vs current £19m market cap.

Nice.

"Canje Block is the same size and adjacent to the productive portion of the Stabroek Block operated by ExxonMobil, with recoverable reserves exceeding 4 billion barrels. Utilizing block wide 3D seismic, JHI’s technical team is working closely with ExxonMobil to select drilling locations on multiple billion-barrel prospects, each demonstrating direct hydrocarbon indicators identical to successful wells in the Stabroek Block." (JHI website)
4.8% x 17.5% = 0.84% of that X BnBBLs.

Nice.

No carry.
They had the option (as did Ratio) to be carried on first well on the block in exchange for 10% (hence reducing from 25% each to 15% each), and also option for second well carry in exchange for an additional 7.5%. But both declined (see announcement May 2019).
One hopes they both have access to some pocket money for drilling costs.. :-)

Same announcement says best estimate gross unrisked resources is 2.1bnBBLS (and that is only for 9 prospects identified on the 3D survey over ~42% of the block, so could be much more) - i.e.525MMBBLs to each of Ratio and CEC.

WTE holds 5.4% of CEC, and 1% of Ratio (+ some warrants), so approx 67mBBLs.
Then there's 4.8% of JHI, who hold 17.5% of Canje (carried for up to 4 wells).

Nice.

They do, but nothing's started yet...The Stena Carron hasn't moved yet has it? Maybe they are waiting for confirmed election result and commitment from the new (whichever!) government that they to fully commit to the licenses also.
In the Hess transcript they rather obviously state that the both government parties have committed to the Staebrok license, but no mention of the other blocks.
Anyway, not meaning to put a damper on things - if/when these go as a result of a strike on either block they should go very, very nicely indeed. But should point out the risks to anyone new and unfamiliar with WTE/Guyana.

Just be aware that the election results have still not been decided/concluded, and there is still a (perhaps significant) risk that the opposition (who seem likely to win) will revisit the licence terms for WTE's blocks (they have stated they will previously).
I have a fairly chunky stake, but accept that there is a potential fly in teh ointment (not withstanding ECO's heavy oil..).

8.7% would be approx 10 million shares sold. Don't think that has been seen on visible market trades, with no change in the SP?

Something is afoot. I guess we'll see another TR-1 shortly.

@JohnnyBoy67.

Out of interest, if your homework was done over the last month, why didn't you buy your 20K at sub 70p rather than waiting until today at over a squid?
Has anything changed news wise during that time, other than the additional cost to shareholders of the management's 'performance' options?

https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2020/07/07/exxonmobil-to-move-ahead-with-first-well-in-kaieteur-block/

Maybe they'll try for a second bite at Perth?
They had a stake in Perth and 100% of Lowlander, and were very enthusiastic, with Graham Stewart saying earlier: "Faroe is building an exciting core area around Perth and Lowlander in the Central North Sea and work is underway together with our Perth partners to progress the potential high value Perth/Lowlander joint development project." Then gave it up in 2016, and PMG (who had a sizeable stake in FPM themselves) got it all.

As WH Ireland said in a research report a while back "Faroe has written off its remaining investment in PDL as non-core in its recently announced H1 results, which we believe reflects its Norwegian focused strategy. In our opinion it is untenable to have an uncommitted partner in a high-quality and undeveloped oil project that is of material scale from the perspective of the OGA. Parkmead is committed to progressing the field and the OGA would not hesitate, in our opinion, to force Faroe to exit the Perth, Dolphin, Lowlander hub-area given that they are manifestly pursuing a strategy outside of the UK in terms of future growth and capital allocation decisions. "
So if they were forced out of it previously, maybe they still fancy it?

This is where it is and the boundaries:
https://scotlis.ros.gov.uk/property-summary/KNC25807

And this is up towards the top of it:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Strachan,+Banchory/@57.0068167,-2.509467,91m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x48842602cbc0353d:0xad7b7e74a6946144!8m2!3d57.019866!4d-2.541219

Which is the part built house. (Is that an indoor swimming pool to the left? :-) )

Anyway, it's close to Mid Hill, maybe 1km to the North West of the nearest turbine, and a little higher (in parts).

The land they are keeping is Pitreadie Farm itself (doh! surprise..!) - 1,240.52 acres. Strachan, Banchory.

Well that clarifies it, great find SOTB.
The current two turbine planning permission is for Tipperty and is being sold.

So all we gotta do now is find out where the 1240 acres they're keeping are, and whether there's any planning applications been submitted for them!

Looks like Herscha Hill is right on the southernmost boundary of Tipperty (what is being sold). There's a map on Rightmove(!).
And if you look at Google maps (Satellite view) you can actually see an existing turbine - just outside the boundary of the land they are selling). But don't know if that is PMG's land?
The bigger existing wind farm at Mid Hill is to the North of Tipperty. You can that on Google maps too.

Would be good to have some more detail from PMG..

Yes, it's not clear to me - the blurb says:
"WIND TURBINES
There is planning consent (2017/1344) granted by Aberdeenshire Council on 28 July 2017 for two 800kW wind turbines, a substation and associated tracks on Herscha Hill."

I read that as the agents are being upfront about the planning having already been granted for a 'neighbouring property' (Herscha Hill), rather than for the Tipperty property itself - but could be wrong... might have a dig tomorrow.

Hi Davde,
PMG bought Pitreadie, which was 2,320 acres for £8.5m or £3,664 per acre. Tipperty was only a part of that. They are now (hopefully) selling Tipperty and two other parcels of land totalling 1080 acres, and keeping 1,240 acres themselves.

The asking prices for the parts they are selling are:
Lot 3 alone (150 acres, no buildings) is offers over £680K, or £4533/acre.
Lot 2 is 120 acres, no buildings - offers over £790K or £6,583/acre.
Lot 1 (811 acres, with all the buildings/sheds) - offers over £3.35m or £4,130/acre.
Quite a lot more per acre than they paid.
Presumably the land they are keeping is the windy bit towards the higher ground - which already has planning permission for 2 turbines. They are hoping to get planning for more I guess. And/or biomass/solar, though wind must be the main driver I think.

To add ref Longboat, I'd forgotten Faroe also acquired 100% of Lowlander in 2013, with Graham Stewart saying "Faroe is building an exciting core area around Perth and Lowlander in the Central North Sea and work is underway together with our Perth partners to progress the potential high value Perth/Lowlander joint development project."
Then they gave it up and wrote it off in 2016.
There is a WH Ireland research note (22.09.2016) that says "Faroe Petroleum Refocusing on Norway: Faroe Petroleum (“Faroe”) has committed capital to a number of material projects in Norway and we believe it is effectively recasting itself as a Norwegian focused E&P company. Faroe has written off its remaining investment in PDL as non-core in its recently announced H1 results, which we believe reflects its Norwegian focused strategy. In our opinion it is untenable to have an uncommitted partner in a high-quality and undeveloped oil project that is of material scale from the perspective of the OGA. Parkmead is committed to progressing the field and the OGA would not hesitate, in our opinion, to force Faroe to exit the Perth, Dolphin, Lowlander hub-area given that they are manifestly pursuing a strategy outside of the UK in terms of future growth and capital allocation decisions. In contrast, the UK North Sea remains an area of core strategic focus for Parkmead."

Interesting....if FPM (remembering that PMG had a sizeable stake in them at the time) didn't actually want to give it up and liked the look of it...maybe they still do?

Yes, a nice tick up on not much volume.

I wonder if anyone is speculating that Longboat may take an interest in the Perth development.
Way back when (2011), Faroe bought 28% of Perth and said of it - ”We are very pleased to announce this acquisition, which fits Faroe Petroleum’s strategy of securing suitable opportunities which draw upon the skills and experience of our technical team with the aim of adding significant upside value. To that end, the Company intends to play a key role in assessing the sub-surface potential, ahead of a field development decision.
The Perth field has the makings of becoming an important new field development in the near term, with scope to tie-back several additional undeveloped discoveries as well as offering exploration upside in the area.”

Maybe if Perth oil now has a route to market, the ex Faroe team would like back in?

Looks like they've been working on the important things....

SOTB, the 1080 acres is what they are selling (hopefully...and more hopefully at a decent profit!) - Tipperty farm and two other lots of land. They're keeping 1240 by my sums.
Anyway, 12 -15 turbines would be a good. Nothing gone into planning yet though that I've seen?

I should hope so too with 1240 acres....should be a lot more than 10-15!!

Interesting that in the Arden note the 2P & 2C quoted for Perth is 99mmboe:
Perth 2P - 64
Dolphin 2C - 12
Lowlander 2C - 23

PMG's own numbers a while back were:
Perth and Dolphin - 104mmboe
Lowlander - 21.4
So total 125.4.

But since then, PMG have made a couple of statements ref the potential for stimulating the reservoirs - (2018 AR) - "Parkmead commissioned a new reservoir study with AGR Tracs International in relation to well stimulation, to analyse the effect of stimulation on the GPA sandstones.
The Perth reservoir has a substantial gross oil column of around 2,000 feet, making the reservoir ideal for stimulation. The study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the overall oil recovery factor. This option will require further well trajectory work to optimise the inflow performance."

The previous Perth 2P figure was based on a recovery rate of 24%, and an old Charles Stanley note stated "Senergy estimated 24% a while back for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. Charles Stanley had to say about it: “For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy’s most recent publicly available estimates).”

So where have Arden's figures come from - the company? And if so, have they already taken into account a higher recovery rate? It looks like it - 2018 interims had total 2P at 46.3mmboe - this includes NL, which is maybe 2, so call it 44.3 for Perth+Dolphin. Now Perth alone is at 64?

Even though the total 2P+2C is quite reduced?
Seems a little confusing.... and surprising if PMG haven't formally announced such a significant increase in 2P?