Member Info for robs12

Anyone know much about the costs and economics of windfarms?
Lots of variances dependent on location etc, but a little Googling brings up a few numbers.

Between 2 - 40 acres per MW required (in US).
3 big UK windfarms average 2.6MW per turbine (range 2.3-3).
A 3MW turbine cost (project cost) approx £2.3m, lasts 20-25 years. O&M approx £86K pa.
A single turbine can generate itro £660K pa income for the developer. Farmer who rents the land to them gets £72K pa.
IRR of approx 13% for a 3MW with average wind speed 7m/s.
Good money.

Crunching the numbers a little bit more...

Reading the property description, the farm building itself is a two bed single story farmhouse with sheds. There's a further farmhouse "in need of renovation" to the North. So probably worth very very little intrinsically in comparison to the land itself - i.e. value of the buildings is nothing.

In which case PMG bought 2,320 acres for £8.5m or £3,664 per acre.

They're selling 1,080 acres for (hopefully more than) £4.82m, or £4,463 per acre (a 21.8% gain potentially).

If you put a value on the farm buildings themselves of say £250K (which feels a lot for what they are), then it would still be a gain of 19% on the land.

As a shareholder I'll be quite happy with that if they get it away.

Of course, that leaves PMG with 1,240 acres which, valued at the same price they're hoping to sell at (£4,463/acre), would be £5.5m - valued as agricultural land rather than a wind farm/solar. Maybe it's worth less as agricultural land on the top of a hill? But presumably much more as a wind farm.

Lot 3 alone (150 acres, no buildings) is offers over £680K, or £4533/acre.
Lot 2 is 120 acres, no buildings - offers over £790K or £6,583/acre.
Lot 1 (811 acres, with all the buildings/sheds) - offers over £3.35m or £4,130/acre, so quite a variation.

PMG bought Pitreadie (2,320 acres).
Tipperty Farm for sale now with 1,081 acres across the 3 lots.
So they are hanging on to 1,239 acres.
That's a lot of windmills and solar... ;-)

There was already an investigation ongoing but this summarizes more recently, and yes, there is a risk if the opposition win:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/02/04/oil-deal-with-exxon-deprived-south-american-nation-of-billions-report-says/#1ebf6dd061b3
Some older articles:

https://www.stabroeknews.com/2020/02/13/news/guyana/more-efforts-needed-in-probe-of-kaieteur-canje-oil-blocks-awards/

https://www.stabroeknews.com/2019/06/02/news/guyana/companies-say-award-of-canje-oil-block-licence-was-above-board/

This may or may not be true I guess (but ironic if so)..:

https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2019/07/07/probe-of-kaieteur-canje-oil-blocks/

Westmount holds a ~ 4.8% of JHI.
JHI hold a 17.5% carried interest in the Canje Block covering over 4,800 square kilometres, offshore Guyana. This block is located adjacent to and in the same geologic basin as the Stabroek Block which has delivered sixteen substantial oil discoveries since 2015, with reported discovered recoverable resources in excess of 8 billion oil-equivalent barrels to date.
ExxonMobil is the operator of both blocks.
"The proximity to these world-class source rocks means that reservoirs on the Canje block are in direct contact with the source, and are charged through vertical migration. Effectively, Canje’s reservoirs are filled first before hydrocarbons migrate up-dip to other blocks." (JHI website)
"Canje Block is the same size and adjacent to the productive portion of the Stabroek Block operated by ExxonMobil, with recoverable reserves exceeding 4 billion barrels. Utilizing block wide 3D seismic, JHI’s technical team is working closely with ExxonMobil to select drilling locations on multiple billion-barrel prospects, each demonstrating direct hydrocarbon indicators identical to successful wells in the Stabroek Block." (JHI website)
As a result of a 2018 farm-out to Total, JHI is carried for the drilling of up to four wells and is funded for the drilling of additional wells.
It is anticipated that the first well on the Canje Block, Bulletwood-1, will be spudded in H2 2020, with the possibility of additional drilling by the end of the year.

That's about the closest I've found to any figures - multiple billion bbl prospects, same size as Stabroek which has >4bn bbls recoverable.
Though likely that JHI would sell out at some point sooner rather than later (after the 4 carried wells?), and who knows what they'd be valued at.... 4bn x 17.5% = 700mn bbls @5$ is $3.5bn. 4.8% of that (i.e to WTE) is $168m.
WTE have bought their 4.8% stake in JHI for approx $5.3m (£4.3m) (if I am interpreting the slightly obscure wording "At cost, Westmount's holding in JHI equates to approximately 38.1% of the value of Westmount's gross assets as of 31st December 2019." correctly?).
So it could be very, very good for the WTE share price if they strike...
Then there's Kaieteur next.
All assuming there's no shenanigans about the validity of the licenses by the Guyana government, though that seems unlikely given how far in Exxon are already, but you never know...
GLA

Yes, almost the same quantity, but those shares haven't been issued yet (should be this morning)?

Can't see a previous TR-1 so looks like they've just jumped in.
Can't find out anything about them. (There was a UK Ltd but dissolved, not them).

Hmm.....interesting. 12% is quite a chunk.
Good news.

Was flagged up a couple of weeks ago on the OGA site?

Indeed:

"The Perth development is located in block 15/21C in the Outer Moray Firth. The initial Core Perth development will comprise up to five production and two water injection wells (phased) tied back via a dedicated manifold. The Concept Select Report has been submitted to the OGA, with discussions continuing. Laterly, we have gone back to re-confirm the status of one of the development concepts. We are not looking for any additional support from the supply chain at this time."

Everyone seems to have missed the Platypus update on Friday?

"Project Summary
The Platypus field is located in the Southern North Sea gas basin in Blocks 47/5b and 48/1a, 18 km (11.2 mi) north-northwest of the West Sole gas field and 15 km (9.3 mi) west-southwest of the Babbage field. As a result of the successful appraisal well in August 2012 the field is being progressed towards development subject to an economically acceptable transportation offtake route being secured.

Recent global event project update: The Concept has been approved for a tie-back to Cleeton Platform with onwards export to Dimlington. Tenders for Rig, XTree, Subsea Pipeline & Facilities EPCI, Umbilical Supply and Controls Supply have been received and are being assessed. Platypus Sanction was expected in Q2 2020 which is under review as we are assessing the impact of COVID-19 and the general industry economic situation. A further update will be published once we have a clearer picture of how we intend to move forward."

A snippet on Buchan also from Jersey earlier:

"Concept selection studies are being conducted to identify the optimum solution for development of 20/5a & 21/1a reserves. In parallel technical and commercial evaluation studies have commenced for a collaborative development of the wider Greater Buchan Area including discoveries in neighbouring Licences. Studies are examining the potential for a reduction in development costs and an increase in value for all participants arising from a a new production hub in the area, potentially including electrification in line with the Oil & Gas Authority's ("OGA") Maximising Economic Recovery ("MER") strategy for the UKCS and reducing CO2 emissions. The current phase of work is scheduled to conclude Q2/Q3 2020."

"including discoveries in neighbouring licenses".....so why did PMG relinquish Polecat and Marten..?

Cash down almost £5m in six months. Was hoping that was as a result of paying off the loan, but it isn't...
They've relinquished Polecat and Marten.
Gas production down a little (probably a good thing right now!).

Worst thing is no news at all on GPA, and a clear steer that current gas prices are not going to make the next results any prettier. But then that's the same for the whole sector.
Not great news. But in the scheme of things, we can at least take solace in the fact they still made a profit, still plenty of cash in the bank and NAV has grown. That's good when compared with many others.

It's rumoured that they may have found a gold seam whilst digging the swimming pool at Pitreadie.. ;-)

Results due on Friday. They are not prelims so should be released as normal I think.
I am expecting the cash position to be roughly the same or (hopefully) higher, but that will be reporting the position as at the end of December. So also expect them to lower any expectations that that cash growth will continue to increase.

If correct (i.e. the cash situation is not significantly reduced), current share price is about half of the value of the cash + farm + Aupec.

Some numbers to try to dull the tedium this thread has become....
We'll hopefully know a little more in less than a couple of weeks time with the interims, but at the last count (June, published in Nov) they had cash of £30.7m, a farm valued at £7.6m and Aupec (O&G consultancy, probably very busy right now..) which last year generated £425K profit on T/O of £2.1m.
That's 28p/share cash, 7p/share for the farm and say 2p/share for Aupec (valued at 1 x T/O). So 37p/share without any O&G interests in the valuation.
Operational cash flow last year was £4.7m, up from £3m the previous year. Assuming lower NL gas prices (but higher production), there is of course a significant risk that cash generation has declined, but IMHO very unlikely to have gone negative.
Operating cost for the gas was (is?) US$11.9/boe, and right now the TTF price is around €8.5/MWh (as low as it has been for a long, long time). For anyone interested that is around US$9.3/boe.
So the gas not making money this week, but has been up until roughly the end of January. Might still be now depending on what contracts they are signed into...
Anyway, I can't see why the cash position should have declined to any extent in the interims (which report to end December - so 'this week's gas' is irrelevant) and it's quite possibly/probably higher.
A property crash (anyone see that coming...?) could impact the farm value...but property seems solid for now.
Aupec keep calm and carry on.
So forget the oil and gas interests for now, this is currently priced way below tangible asset value...billy bargain if anyone has any $$ left to buy shares..or the inclination.

GLA!

Since it has gone a bit quiet here (hoorah!), a few snippets/reminders from the November prelims and subsequent press coverage:

“Energy firm Parkmead Group will inevitably show up on the radars of prospective buyers if its current growth trajectory continues…”

“Executive chairman Tom Cross said the Aberdeen-headquartered firm’s upcoming UK North Sea projects would prove the company was “high quality”.”

About the farm….“The land is well suited to wind, solar and biomass schemes and Mr Cross revealed Parkmead had been approached by some “very big companies” who are keen to work together on renewables projects.”

“Parkmead hopes to tie GPA back to Cnooc International’s Scott platform and believes the project could deliver 75-130m barrels of oil equivalent.
Parkmead is also a partner in Dana’s Platypus project in the southern North Sea, from which first gas is scheduled for 2022.
Mr Cross said projects like those would put Parkmead in the line of sight of larger companies capable of making large acquisitions.
He said: “I’ve been here before. There comes a point when you come on people’s radars because production is at a level that makes you more recognisable. That’s the nature of where we are.
“We have rising revenues, profits and reserves, so any industrialist looking in from the outside will start to realise this is a high quality company.
“We’re not worried about that. We’re just driving ahead. If someone comes along and wants to partner with us or buy us we’ll deal with that.”

“The company has a cash balance of £30.7m, which leaves it well-positioned for future acquisitions, according to executive chairman Tom Cross.
Parkmead is “actively evaluating” deals and was active in the UK’s 32nd offshore licensing round, which closed earlier this week.“
(The above courtesy of Energy Voice)

The prelims saw a change of language about GPA negotiations – from “entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership…in order to EXPLORE terms for a tie-back“ back in March..to “…potentially AGREE terms for a tie-back..” in November (my CAPS).

Press & Journal article stated “A final investment decision is slated for spring 2020.” ref GPA.

IMHO, PMG are looking ridiculously undervalued at 40p (market cap = £43m), given that they are producing, profit-making, cash flow positive and have net assets of £68.3m (as at November).

With cash of approx. £31m, a farm (undeveloped for renewables) valued at £7.6m, and subsidiary Aupec (£2m?), that means all the O&G assets are in the price for about £3m, or 3p/share.

That’s £3m for 2P reserves of 46MMBoe and 2C of 100.8MMBoe.
And Platypus first gas scheduled for 2022, GPA deal possibly any time now, two West of Shetland blocks, Skerryvore WIP…and possibility of further deals imminently, and 32nd licensing round due to be announced in a month or two’s time.

GLA!

And a fair few more chunky buys at close of play. Good, it's not just me who thinks it's ridiculously good value at these levels.
Still, 100k shares is still only £40k or so...with any positive news on GPA these will really fly...

Interesting, according to the trades shown on here there are so far today 102,000 buys vs 3000 sells...

I was hoping it'll start flying now, after I've just loaded up some more! ;-)

Some nice chunky buys today...
SP is far to close to value of cash + (undeveloped) farm. All the O&G assets are in for almost nothing, no debt, profit making, about to announce a major deal (hopefully) that they have been working towards for years...
irrespective of peoples viess on TC and communications, this is ridiculously undervalued..