Member Info for robs12

LOL..sorry SRS, read your post as 'bought into PMG shares' rather than joined the company!! That'll teach me to skim over on my phone!

SRS69, where did you see that?

Off topic, I bought another decent chunk yesterday...it just looks way to good an opportunity at this price. Now far too overweight...

Thankfully there are filters so you don't have to see the drivel.. ;-)

Gas is locally priced. For PMG, producing in the Netherlands, the relevant price is TTF, but we don't know what (if any) contracts are in place.

For those who feel the comms are poor...what exactly do you want to know?

Regarding GPA they are negotiating terms (nobody seemed to pick up on the different language from "entered into commercial discussions" in earlier announcements to "potentially agree terms" in the Nov RNS). Are you expecting them to share the timeline and contract details with you during the negotiation?
They are also negotiating with a number of contractors in parallel. Do you expect them to share the details of who and what with you?
If you feel you need to know that sort of 'news' then you should apply to join the board...!

GPA - FID expected spring 2020...so shortly.
Platypus - sanction expected in Q2 2020 and First Gas in Q4 2021. It should produce more than the NL gas.
Skerryvore and WoS being worked on.
NL gas being developed further (but entirely dependent on Vermillion of course)

They have cash of 28p/share (as at June, but positive cash flow from NL, so should be more now), a farm worth 7p/share, and Aupec (maybe 2p/share - net profit of £425K on T/O of £1.2m).
So all the O&G interests are currently valued at ~4p/share...or £4.1m

The market will wake up sooner or later.

LOL...here we go again....
Exactly what do you want to know that has not been communicated (that would not jeopardize current negotiations if it were common knowledge)?

Bondsan, Longboat is certainly an interesting play. I think they may tie up with PMG in some way, a lot of common interests and people.
Maybe they'll take a sizeable minority stake (say 25%) in PMG to prevent a takeover. Both TC (with Dana) and FPM believed they were taken over at well below fair price. PMG had a sizeable stake in FPM until they were acquired.

Without the deal, nothing would have happened, zilch.
With the deal they effectively have to pay 15% of the 3D costs (which they can almost afford) and they will get taken to the point of yes/no on drilling, decided upon by Shell. If Shell decide yes, then EDR have to stump up some drilling costs, or farmout again, but on the basis of a very very high chance of success (and potentially much more than they believe is there now, dependent on the seismic).
If they lose another 15% for a free carry of 15% then that is a good deal. Better than 0% of nothing ;-) Which is where could have been today.
Yes, it will take some time, but it was always going to, this block was never going to be a jam today scenario...

Hi MM,
yes sorry, I'm getting them mixed up. P2069 (205/12) was Davaar, not Sanda as I've written below, so they've had Davaar twice.
Sanda (205/13) they originally got a % of in 2015 (with other stakeholders), and other WoS blocks which they subsequently relinquished. They then got 100% of 205/13 in 2017, and looks like a new license/term as a result.

Maybe BondSan, they are big numbers. Half a billion barrels recoverable P50 would be very nice, but given the lack of comment on it in either 2018 or 2019 annual reports I have my doubts...

But they'll need to get a shift on if they want to keep Sanda N & S . The license (P2296) started 19th Feb 2017, and initial term is 4 years - so to Feb next year.
The work commitment before then is to reprocess two 3D seismic lines (PMG say they have already undertaken "extensive" reprocessing) and there is a drill or drop provision, or give it up. So they need to drill a well, unless they can wangle an extension. That'll be some task unless they already have a farmout deal in negotiations and can persuade OGA to give them an extension to complete the drill as a result.
They had this block previously (P2069 awarded Oct 2012 with initial term of 4 years, hence the link to the old Charles Stanley report on it a couple of posts down), then got it awarded again in 2017, so they must have liked it.

Can't find the license details for Davaar (P2406), but it started 1st Oct 2018, so if it is the same terms they have another 18 months or so on that.

Some useful (albeit a few years old) info ref Perth appraisal wells and hub plan etc - page 5 onwards:
https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_Research_21.10.2013.pdf

Ref Polecat and Marten, and PDL generally - page 3 onwards:
https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_Research_28th_Round_Results_21.11.20141.pdf

And Davaar WoS, just for fun..:
https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_PMG_Davaar_Update_19022014.pdf

All well worth the effort to read if you after some technical detail (though obviously old, so figures incorrect!).

Neil, regarding Perth/Dolphin/Lowlander - "The three fields have been fully appraised, with a combined total of 13 wells drilled, and contain oil in place of over 400 million barrels." This from PMG 14/9/2016.
Perth and Dolphin produced "32-38o API oil at production rates of up to 6,000 bopd per well".
Lowlander "is an Upper Jurassic Piper sandstone discovery, appraised by five wells, and contains 2C oil resources of 21.4 million barrels of recoverable oil on a P50 basis".
There is an unquantified "Midlander" prospect nearby too.

Up until 2016 or so, PMG referred to it as the PDL project - Perth/Dolphin/Lowlander. Then it was changed to GPA (Greater Perth Area) when Polecat and Marten were added to the portfolio - "The Polecat and Marten fields have the potential to be highly valuable to Parkmead as, given their close proximity to PDL, they could be jointly developed as part of the Greater PDL Area project".
Polecat was appraised in 2010, the well flow tested at 4,373 bpd of good quality 32° API oil.
The Marten discovery was made in 1984, encountering three oil bearing sandstones of Upper Buzzard age.
They must be some 50-60km from Scott though, so not sure if still in the frame..

10 years from now...hmmm... I am thinking more about 2 years from now ;-)

By then...:
- GPA deal done and some value for it in the Share Price, hopefully a lot.
- First gas flowing from Platypus (and maybe plans for development of Platypus East (Possum) for an extra 50bcf) - this should be roughly the same as the current NL gas flow rates, so all things being equal they'll be making double the profits they are now, nice cashflow.
- Skerryvore firmed up and maybe a farmout - New seismic done in Q3 2019, will be reprocessed and interpreted during 2020, three stacked prospects have the potential to contain 157 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent on a P50 basis.
- Blackadder (up to 170bcf?) with Cluff (now playing with Shell)
- maybe some WoS news for a farmout - though notable by silence about WoS in the interims/AR. So maybe they're gonna drop it...or maybe they're just keeping very quiet about it for other reasons...
- some news, and hopefully action on the renewables plan

Should be a transformational couple of years.

A few years back, Senergy estimated 24% recovery rate for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. Charles Stanley had to say about it: “For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy’s most recent publicly available estimates).”

PMG have stated several times they expect GPA to recover more than 80MMBoe.

I strongly suspect they really think it will be a LOT more, but are not shouting about it too loudly yet. Maybe a new CPR with the deal (if it happens), to reflect the above and the reservoir study - "New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor".

Cash = 28p/share (as at June, but positive cash flow from NL), a farm worth 7p/share, so all the O&G interests (and Aupec) are currently valued at ~12p/share.

Patience... ;-)

"Parkmead hopes to recover 193 million barrels of oil from GPA." (Energy Voice article).
"Parkmead’s GPA project, which has the potential to deliver 75-130 MMBoe on a P50 basis." (2019 AR).
"Perth and Dolphin....recoverable reserves and contingent resources of approximately 104 million barrels of oil" (PMG RNS)
"Lowlander....contains 2C oil resources of 21.4 million barrels of recoverable oil on a P50 basis" (PMG RNS)
These 2P/2C figures stated before ""New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor".

Let's err on the cautious/lower side and say it is 75MMBoe, and value it at $5/bbl, that's £288m, or £2.65 per share.
Wack it up to 193MMBoe and $10 and that's £13+/share...

That's without current cash, NL gas, Skerryvore, Platypus (which appears to be progressing well and sounds like will contribute more gas than NL does currently..), explo.

Just realized the post below got truncated...

It was meant to finish:

15 November 2019 (interims):
Parkmead is in commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to potentially agree terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) to the Scott facilities.
Parkmead is also holding discussions with a number of leading, internationally-renowned service companies in relation to the GPA project.

That doesn't seem like going around in circles to me ;-)

GPA timeline summary, the below all from PMG interim and finals announcements:

24 March 2017:
Perth and Dolphin are at the core of Parkmead's Greater Perth Area (GPA) oil hub project which has been fully appraised, with a combined total of 17 wells drilled, and has expected recoverable reserves and contingent resources of approximately 104 million barrels of oil.

17 November 2017:
Greater Perth Area (GPA) invitation to tender announced to the service provider market, covering the pre-FEED, FEED and subsequent development phases of the project. 13 alliance submissions received from 35 companies across all project components of drilling, subsea construction and export route options
In discussions with a number of leading, international service companies and oil companies
Parkmead has received financial proposals for significant parts of the development, reducing the capital expenditure needed to bring the project onstream.

29 March 2018:
Parkmead now in full control of the GPA oil hub project with operatorship and 100% equity.
Agreement signed with Nexen Petroleum, a subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), to undertake a detailed engineering study for the potential subsea tie-back of the GPA project to the Nexen-operated Scott facilities in the Central North Sea.

16 November 2018:
Engineering study confirmed the technical feasibility of a tie-back of the GPA project to the Scott facilities.
Parkmead has entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to explore terms for a tie-back of GPA to Scott.
New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor.

29 March 2019:
Parkmead has entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership, led by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) International, in order to EXPLORE (My CAPS) terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (GPA) oil hub project to the Scott facilities.
Parkmead also holding discussions with a number of leading, internationally-renowned service companies in relation to the GPA project.
A tie-back to Scott is one path to potentially unlock the substantial value of the GPA project.

4 April 2019 (From the OGA Current Projects page, updated by PMG):
FID is planned for Q4 2019 with 1st hydrocarbons currently planned for 1H 2022.

1 April 2019 (Energy Voice Article reproduced on the PMG site):
"Parkmead hopes to recover 193 million barrels of oil from GPA."

31 August 2019 (Energy Voice Article reproduced on the PMG site):
"Parkmead intends to develop GPA as a tie-back to the Scott platform..."
"A final investment decision is slated for spring 2020"

15 November 2019 (interims):
Parkmead is in commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to potentially AGREE TERMS (My CAPS) for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“G

Hi MartyP, (sorry for delay in replying - I am enjoying a few days on the slopes so away from the fun here).
Of course I am not happy about the share price 'collapse', but am happy with the purchase. It was flagged for some time so not unexpected, and makes good sense IMHO.
In your post that was removed (not by me I hasten to add!) you referred to it not being good use of shareholders funds. I think my response was clear (there seems to have been much confusion/misrepresentation about how this deal was financed) and Davde seems to have answered already.
Happy New Year all - lets hope it's a good one for PMG!

Hi Marty, not sure we understand...please explain clearly if you think differently, but TC (and wife + third party) invested more of their own money into PMG in the Pitreadie deal. A lot of it. Effectively, TC traded a cash loan (from his wife) for a bunch more PMG shares, for which he paid 50p a pop.
They exchanged a cash loan for shares.
And they 'averaged down' in terms of what they have personally invested in the company.
Yes, there was a bank loan which went in with the deal, but not significant in the scheme of things.
Exactly how much per share do think private investors have lost out on this deal? (And I'm not talking in terms of share price movements, but in the financial arrangements of the deal - forget subsequent movements in the shareprice, those have an effect on all, and particularly TC, since he is the largest shareholder...).

None of us are getting any younger, but nor is Tom, who has a lot invested here at at an average of 70p (before the "Wind Farm" in deal).
They have been working on it for many years, and are expecting to make a lot of money...