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In theory Kefi could have mothballed everything in the KSA but Hawiah too good a project to delay, as harry said even though Kefi get a smaller slice of the pie there being the junior partner it’s a much bigger pie than TK so Hawiah will be more valuable in time to Kefi.

Plus Kefi had to have a plan b if the wheels had come off with TK and the Saudi projects would be a lot easier to get off the ground as between being a junior partner and Saudi development loans not much money would have to be found.

With the benefit of hindsight might have been better to not reduce Kefi share of the Saudi projects but think even harry was surprised at how good Hawiah turned out to be though the copper price going through the roof certainly helps.

Think they had a extra drilling rig in Saudi Smellyben and really pushed through the drilling there, it paid off and in the future the plans is not to explore every bit before building a mine but would have cost. A plus from the webinar is the cash raise will be after TK financing has wrapped up and will deal with both sides of Red Sea projects.

Things that are not in the RNS but were in the Webinar are that some of the local investors are subsidiaries of bigger international companies that are finding it hard to repatriate their earnings so money just sitting in banks so not likely to have the same problem we had with ANS.

Also sounds like any cash raising will be post deal “when everything is wrapped up”.

Suggest anyone who has not done so catch up with the webinar in case I have missed anything and to just digest everything.

rains election? Election no..wet season not relevant for financing.

country desperate to correct trading balance whoever is in power..

What caused delay… core syndicate sign up delayed due to reasons presented earlier..formal delays..just lead up delayed not other schedules.

Inter crediting deed executed? People who call shots are senior lenders no debating what terms its the last thing that gets signed any how.

Three steps in compensation and moving settlement first settlers comped in June second batch in jury third batch just after wet season..

Plant and machinery schedule yes possible to do..
Did Government align start of project to create good publicity….yes (lol) they would be delighted to see the mine progress just before election

Frustration of shareholders at delays…Challenge of first mover and other challenges…Company has tenacity to deliver…rewards are exceptional..harry spends most of his time in Ethiopia TK so close now you can taste it…

Funds raising? wrapping up everything in one go both sides of red sea kefi and Ethiopia funding in Ethiopia and ARTAR and in Saudi (post TK Deal)
Kefi enough clout to get project off ground?…highest risk capital already spent by Noventa and kefi to get to this stage..next money for development…mining contractor putting in resources..banks serious about delivery..local investors money to deploy money sitting in their banks has to be used in country..syndicate works because they care about country

New timescales firm? Unless some major event or black swan even timescales reliable.

Jibal quatman…Granting of licence delays…past problems no longer relevant for Hawiah…KSA needs money now as well due to oil price so political will is now there

Funding package end of June phase four will be covered.

Hawiah change of assumptions…you do not have to drill everything out to trigger development but can drill at the same time

Project big enough? Hawiah knocking on door..

Licenses slowly granted? Six projects sequencing cannot comment on commercially sensitive and it is out of kefi hands

JQ licensing when? Believe dealt with by ARTAR but no details.

Travel restrictions have not had a big impact yet…virtual meetings..relationships still strong and lots of Due diligence..Harry waiting to be vaccinated…clear success of drilling in KSA buy back bigger share of KSA from ARTAR…no. KSA extremely prospective though plenty of opportunities but strong partner means kefi in good position one third share of a giant pie rather than a bigger share of a smaller pie. Hawiah the smaller share will be bigger than the bigger share of TK.

Closing remarks testing but special time for company so hang in there things are turning for us.. shareholders deserve a break and stakeholders keen to succeed.

We will make it happen.

My write up advfn..Harry explains what a kefi webinar is…..exciting time for company a lot of things have to happen in a short order..walk through of slides of presentation…updating slides rather than all slides..just ten slides

Description of TK households will be moved third slide corporate overall picture..…kefi undervalued…getting on with it…should see share price with along with developments will increase SP…NPV doubled… due to metal price increase and increased share of TK and Hawiah progress

Steps for developing fall development…lead up schedules slipped but..still on target for full go ahead middle of year (government sign off) harry describing house road and electricity work…

Mid year kick off drawn down later of year debt comes in (basically no change from quarterly)

Metal price has changed outlook for Kefi, local companies that are internationally owned that are well capitalized (that cannot move money out of country easily) Finance improved to around 75 percent (important for shareholders)

Discovery in KSA Hawiah Maiden resource gets getting bigger and improved grades

Harry talking about covid…Logistics challenging but done well..security been an issue nationally but not at TK site…Kefi elevated security.. achievement to keep things on track extra measures to protect..Kefi will be countries biggest export company

Harry talking about covid…Logistics challenging but done well..security been an issue nationally but not at TK site…Kefi elevated security achievement to keep things on track extra measures to protect countries biggest export company

Harry saying sorry about delay admits he thought things some things would be done by this webinar (there you go topical)

Corporate development plan slide
Project robust…mining fleet investment by contractor May milestones…Exchange of letters…pull together everything…need formal credit approval. Government already spending…March Ethiopian investors felt obligation to invite them they will have to commit in may like everyone else…kefi offtake needs to go firm in may....May is key month should be a string of announcements then June government and final sign off

Targeting development in Hawiah after things settle down with TK…NPV numbers…other slides 13…senior management committee experienced.. Slide 18 foreign companies in Ethiopia..Newmont…other companies.. Bisha mine..Harry heads of mining association in Ethiopia…slide 21 covid and security in TK…Covid not as big a problem as in other countries (average age 18) security basically says incidents elsewhere but not at sleepy TK but kefi taking precautions slide 35 mineral resource NPV sensitive to scaling up liable to increase.

End of presentation slide walk through.

Questions..

TK what are the next share price moving announcements?….key steps on slide what happens in may and June…things happen to de risk project leading to fuller value..

Timetable thrown out by Ethiopians..only invited in march (?)..
Other

https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/kefi-gold-shares-gap-6-7-higher-on-new-corporate-strategy-higher-valuation/

Harry not the most natural presenter and can put his foot in it by being too blunt but credit to him he was totally straight and laid things out as they are...which is looking good

Seems from the actions of the various consortium members that are fully on board that it has enough momentum to get fully over the line (slide 6) June sign off by government if everything else signed off next month should be a formality so next month the crucial month.

Https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/presentations/kefi-corporate-pres-27april_2021.pdf

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/metal-boom-copper-hits-10-year-high-amid-supply-constraints-and-infrastructure-plans

Only need to get there once and it’s a completely different scenario to five years ago with a government much more friendly to the prospect and a much greater gold price meaning TK could be 8 times more profitable than back then.

Trouble is he can only say what he thinks at time which is usually a best case scenario coupled with harry being over optimistic which means Kefi generally gets there but the timescales are often well out.

Once the finance is a go though the whole picture changes then it a case of building the mine and the schedule will not be so elastic and be more predictable.

Said in a previous webinar that a second Ethiopian group was interested in investing though timescale was probably stretched for them longer than harry said so worth watching Kefi webinars. He probably had to back down though on the timescale as politically for the Ethiopian government they can show more Ethiopian investment just before a election and maybe do a favour for the group involved.

Harry probably wanted to name the partners as well otherwise he would not be asking them for permission to name them, that was probably thrown of by the rejigging of the consortium make up as well as it would make sense to name them all in one hit.

Personally will watch the webinar and probably more than once to see what he says how he says it and what he does not say and try to read between the lines generally.

Looks like things were slowed by more than one Ethiopian group wanting to get on board, in addition to local and national government that are already on board. That hardily equates to African friends losing faith.

Think you lost any credibility when you said it was in the Economist.

hxxps://www.thearmchairtrader.com/kefi-gold-copper-share-price/

Extract though worth reading the whole things

“ The finds in Ethiopia have generated a lot of investor interest, including from the Ethiopian federal and regional governments, while Ethiopian private sector groups also are expected to commit funds in May. Both the Ethiopian and Saudi Arabian governments are now boosting their mining sectors with reforms to develop their economies and attract inward investment. For example, in June last year the Saudi Arabian government approved a Mining Investment Law, to help the country’s mining industry, and expanded the role of the Saudi Investment Development Fund specifically to support mining project finance, which may prove useful to the Hawiah Project financing.”

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/china-opens-its-borders-to-multi-billion-dollar-gold-imports-sources/articleshow/82101272.cms

https://www.facebook.com/takele.uma.01

Ethiopian mining minister on Facebook today. The photo with 2013 and a photo on it of Abiy is due to the Ethiopian calendar looks like they are combining electioneering with progress in the mining sector.

“To get better, it takes more effort.
It is being seen that our mineral wealth is becoming based on our economy.
We work more than what we have compared to what we have. We need to increase the standard of saving seed to investments.
Today in Benishangul region, we have officially started the construction of gold factory in Kumruk. When the factory starts working, it produces 7500 kilograms of gold a year. This will increase the size of the national product in a high amount.
The gold production will be completed once a year and will be in stock.
Including Benishangulgumuz region I would like to thank them for the start of the project.”

https://www.ethiopiancalendar.net

https://allafrica.com/stories/202104150796.html

Ethiopia: Survey Emphasizes Mining for National Growth...

mining survey at 28 sites in Oromia.. distributed 5,610 geo- science information through undertaking 15,800 sample studies in collaboration with different stakeholders over the past seven months... in addition to provide different professional with supports to explore and drill mining.. The report stated that the findings enable to reduce unemployment if states properly translate the findings of exploration in to action...

“Ethiopian exploration area highly prospective: The areas reserved for KEFI’s exploration licences cover a vast 1,120 km2. The area hosts two NNE-trending structures, parallel to the Tulu Kapi trend, that host a combined 24km of mineralised strike. There are a number of enticing exploration prospects where historical trench sampling and drilling have returned high grades. Management’s conservative target is to identify some 300,000 oz to 500,000 oz of oxide material grading 1.5 g/t or better than could either supplement ore feed to the plant at Tulu Kapi, or be developed as separate heap leach operations. This could enable production of an initial 50,000 oz pa that would benefit from low strip ratios, low costs, and high gold recoveries. Given the large area, the highly prospective nature of the geology and past results, the real target must be to discover the next Tulu Kapi.”

https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/files/Orior-Capital-KEFI-Pole-Position-22Oct20_opt.pdf

RNS actually looked better on second reading other groups wanting to invest is actually a vote of confidence in the company and the project.

Let’s see one possibly two Ethiopian groups.

Government.

Regional government.

Mining Contractor.

likely more than one multinational industrial group

an international metals trader

“At this stage, it appears KEFI will own at least 65% of TKGM, which will depend on...”

Ironically looks like Kefi will get a bit smaller share than it might due to more groups people getting on board. Worst case is one or both Ethiopian groups pull out and kefi gets a greater share of the revenue from TK in which case easy to fill the gap through the offtake agreement.

All this vs some people understandably getting emotional.

If the company had actually handled the PR marketing and communication recently properly shareprice could have actually gone up today as more buying than selling.

Agree got to look at what the situation actually is now and park the emotions even though that’s difficult.

Reading through everything again really only a shortish delay on one part (though important I agree) that is not throwing out the overall timetable.

The new Ethiopian investors want to get on board obviously do see it as a sure thing as does the mining contractor that is suppling the fleet and assuming its the same one wants invest in Kefi shares.

Ironically could end up with more buying than selling today think if the company and harry had actually trusted us rather than have a “the truth you can’t handle the truth” attitude the shareprice would be a lot higher over the long term.