Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Savannah has conducted a review of the value of Accugas Limited, which has been assessed as reasonable by LR and incorporated in the Nigeria CPR. The base case NPV10 for Savannah’s 20 per cent. interest in the Accugas Midstream Business has been assessed at US$209 million, which, when adjusted for Savannah’s pro rata share of approximately US$470 million debt which sits at Accugas Limited, represents a base case value of US$115 million.
No debt.
Will it come this month?????
Implementation Agreement
7.1 The Company and the Locked-up Parties have agreed that they will enter into an Implementation Agreement, which will document the legal terms and steps on which the Transaction will be implemented by the respective parties. The Implementation Agreement will need to be finally agreed and entered into by the Company and the Locked-up Parties before the Acquisition and the Capital Restructuring can be completed.
7.2 The Implementation Agreement will schedule, among other things:
7.2.1 the agreed purchase agreement regarding of the Company’s acquisition of Seven Energy’s interests in the Uquo Field and the Stubb Creek Field;
7.2.2 final finance documents on which it is proposed the Capital Restructuring will be effected;
7.2.3 intercreditor agreements relating to the finance documents; and
7.2.4 a purchase agreement regarding the acquisition of Exoro and its subsidiaries (including the operating company, Accugas Limited), pursuant to the Accugas Transaction.
7.3 In addition to scheduling various execution versions of the legal documents required to complete the Acquisition and Capital Restructuring (which will become effective pursuant to the terms of the Implementation Agreement), the Implementation Agreement will include provisions of support for the transaction, obligations to facilitate the transaction and limited termination rights.
7.4 The Implementation Agreement will set out, in detail, all the steps that need to occur to complete the Transaction, when those steps are to be taken, by whom and in what order. The completion mechanics of the deal will be a pre-agreed sequence of events that will commence once all conditions precedent to the Implementation Agreement have occurred. Conditions precedent are likely to include the termination and execution of the Frontier Agreements and the receipt of governmental and regulatory consents (see “Ministerial Consent” below).
Appreciate that clarification Zengas. Thanks for posting it
Depends on debt, but I wouldn’t really value anything on that alone really. And it’s a bit naughty of me to put it the way I did because it suggest that SAVP are not doing anything with that - ie could return to shareholders a chunk of it. In reality I would expect that will be spent, capex on drilling, acquisitions and partnerships in Nigeria, buy in extra 10% Accugas etc
With the revenue predicted here and a clear path to development in Niger (2021 Benin export) after feasibility study complete end of this year and a partner to accelerate exploration, appraisal and development confirmed I would expect the Mcap to be 3-4 times where we are now. Quite easily.
AK alluded to the mcap here and what the business was looking to replicate. It’s a few billion. We have more assets and potential than the business he was referring to though.
For anyone who hasn’t watched the presentation, they should. It was very good.
Depends on debt, but I wouldn’t really value anything on that alone really. And it’s a bit naughty of me to put it the way I did because it suggest that SAVP are not doing anything with that - ie could return to shareholders a chunk of it. In reality I would expect that will be spent, capex on drilling, acquisitions and partnerships in Nigeria, buy in extra 10% Accugas etc
With the revenue predicted here and a clear path to development in Niger (2021 Benin export) after feasibility study complete end of this year and a partner to accelerate exploration, appraisal and development confirmed I would expect the Mcap to be 3-4 times where we are now. Quite easily.
AK alluded to the mcap here and what the business was looking to replicate. It’s a few billion. We have more assets and potential than the business he was referring to though.
For anyone who hasn’t watched the presentation, they should. It was very good.
Depends on debt, but I wouldn’t really value anything on that alone really. And it’s a bit naughty of me to put it the way I did because it suggest that SAVP are not doing anything with that - ie could return to shareholders a chunk of it. In reality I would expect that will be spent, capex on drilling, acquisitions and partnerships in Nigeria, buy in extra 10% Accugas etc
With the revenue predicted here and a clear path to development in Niger (2021 Benin export) after feasibility study complete end of this year and a partner to accelerate exploration, appraisal and development confirmed I would expect the Mcap to be 3-4 times where we are now. Quite easily.
AK alluded to the mcap here and what the business was looking to replicate. It’s a few billion. We have more assets and potential than the business he was referring to though.
For anyone who hasn’t watched the presentation, they should. It was very good.
Depends on debt, but I wouldn’t really value anything on that alone really. And it’s a bit naughty of me to put it the way I did because it suggest that SAVP are not doing anything with that - ie could return to shareholders a chunk of it. In reality I would expect that will be spent, capex on drilling, acquisitions and partnerships in Nigeria, buy in extra 10% Accugas etc
With the revenue predicted here and a clear path to development in Niger (2021 Benin export) after feasibility study complete end of this year and a partner to accelerate exploration, appraisal and development confirmed I would expect the Mcap to be 3-4 times where we are now. Quite easily.
AK alluded to the mcap here and what the business was looking to replicate. It’s a few billion. We have more assets and potential than the business he was referring to though.
For anyone who hasn’t watched the presentation, they should. It was very good.
Depends on debt, but I wouldn’t really value anything on that alone really. And it’s a bit naughty of me to put it the way I did because it suggest that SAVP are not doing anything with that - ie could return to shareholders a chunk of it. In reality I would expect that will be spent, capex on drilling, acquisitions and partnerships in Nigeria, buy in extra 10% Accugas etc
With the revenue predicted here and a clear path to development in Niger (2021 Benin export) after feasibility study complete end of this year and a partner to accelerate exploration, appraisal and development confirmed I would expect the Mcap to be 3-4 times where we are now. Quite easily.
AK alluded to the mcap here and what the business was looking to replicate. It’s a few billion. We have more assets and potential than the business he was referring to though.
For anyone who hasn’t watched the presentation, they should. It was very good.
Depends on debt, but I wouldn’t really value anything on that alone really. And it’s a bit naughty of me to put it the way I did because it suggest that SAVP are not doing anything with that - ie could return to shareholders a chunk of it. In reality I would expect that will be spent, capex on drilling, acquisitions and partnerships in Nigeria, buy in extra 10% Accugas etc
With the revenue predicted here and a clear path to development in Niger (2021 Benin export) after feasibility study complete end of this year and a partner to accelerate exploration, appraisal and development confirmed I would expect the Mcap to be 3-4 times where we are now. Quite easily.
AK alluded to the mcap here and what the business was looking to replicate. It’s a few billion. We have more assets and potential than the business he was referring to though.
For anyone who hasn’t watched the presentation, they should. It was very good.
Sorry, EBITDA 130-170 range from what we currently know. Taking up the additional 10% of Accugas will increase that obviously
EBITDA circa 160-200 m dollars mid-end 2019 if 7e transaction completes.
Drilling all next year in Niger, expected to see a partner to come in to accelllerate exploration and appraisal.
Plenty of growth in Nigeria business
Possible acquisitions
Downside - 7e transaction not completing. If Implementation Agreement comes this month then we will all be happy.
What’s wrong with the Benin option which is being progressed and is the primary option targeting first exports in 2021?
The company has released this news. They have not disclosed any export route anywhere else that I am aware of.
You know it!
Although I will say everything happens if the transaction goes through, that includes you well test (although we should probably just refer to it as EPF as they are one and the same here) so I am expecting announcement of the IA being signed by all party’s to make a difference. That is the point which risk falls dramatically. I suppose it remains to be seen if there are only a few pi’s left to buy at that stage though.
Surely they are sells as well as buys?
How can you buy if there is no sell?
Very positive to reaffirm the end of October for the IA. I Take a bit of confidence from that.
Not sure who was posting the other day regarding the expected realised price of crude in Niger (too lazy to go back and check) but it sparked my interest a bit. Thought I would share a bit on this if anyone is interested.
It’s not a wide market (obviously) and from the response I received from the company I don’t think they have agreed a contract yet - I think that’s reasonable considering they do lot have to delivery a feasibility study until sometime in November to the relevant authorities.
All the guidance suggests a discount of approximately 18% to Brent. This is estimated to be conservative. This is also alluded to in the recent broker reports. It is also in excess of the 42 dollars the poster mentioned.
This is obviously internal pricing in Niger, this is different from export pricing, as this would more reflect world oil pricing for the grade of crude.
The notes that Thomas the tank has put on here are available on the SAVP website. Interestingly the Mirabaud note is a bit out of date (although it’s recent) as their projection for 2021 is for the 5k bbl/d scenario from Niger. This will actually be next year. Worth a look if your invested because their projection for 2021 will happen next year if 7e completes.
And if it completes, I don’t think anyone would disagree that SAVP will deliver. This has been too visible (in terms of PR from the boss) not too complete. To many interviews and reassurances have been given in my opinion. Not exactly shooting fish in a barrel though is it.
Vitol
The vital connection did cross my mind.
I don’t think the current funding structure is for anything that is new, I think they are delivering on an existing plan with a known financial forecast, and are ensure they can deliver on it as the situation dictates. I think we are just seeing how it’s developed over time.
From a shareholders perspective, avoiding the issue of shares at a fixed price when success is known (deal closed) is prudent and should be a focus.
It’s was vague and in no way did it ever refer to that as binding. I would simply assume all this means is we have access to numerous forms of funding. Very positive but I would like to see that used in a responsible way - ie not mates rates etc. We have already had that and we are still pulling our pants up from the last one.