Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Found it, $4.5 discount to Brent per bbl
At $55 oil Current fcf at around 115k $ per day at 2018 capex guidance using previously announced opex at 7k bopd. Can anyone tell me the pricing for the crude here pls? (Discount to Brent or WTI?) also, CPO block looks good at 40deg API, anyone know the discount (if any) for that? Looking very good for reserves growth here also. Any mention anywhere of guidance on 2018 production figures based on the wellsplan? Thanks in advance if anyone can help
Just recently got involved here and will be increasing. I can only see good news on the horizon with relation to Mariposa. I am 90% sure we will be looking at increased rates from the next update - currently we can see 27bbl/psi drawdown at stable rates. Can�t see any reference to flow assurance issues so I assume downstream pressures can be low for separation without affecting the data so would expect them to be able to continue increasing the choke size - for example an additional drawdown of 100psi from the current point at the formation would give an extra 2,700bbl/d at a flowing WHP of 460 odd psi - total rate around 5,500 bbl/d. That is quite something for a cheap well and a company with no debt, looks and sounds likely to me. BOD comments look reserved but hint at this is I expect the results to do the talking here, both in terms of reserves and production potential. 30% of two 5,000 + bbl/d Wells by the end of H1 plus current production looks like pretty good upside. Does the current 7k bbl/d production figures reported include the JV oil from mariposa or is it net to AMER figures? Does anyone have any up to date info on the drilling of the next target on CPO 5 outside of RNS info? Thanks
In the admission doc and the previous RNS. 1st tranche placing shares to be admitted to trading today using the current allotment - raising just over $12 m
As announced by the Company on 18 December 2017, the Company has formed a strategic partnership with an investment group including ASMA Capital Partners B.S.C.(c) (“ASMA Capital”), as the fund manager of IDB Infrastructure II B.S.C.(c) (“IDB Fund”), with a view to that investment group making a potential investment of up to US$90 million in the Company for new Ordinary Shares at the Placing Price, including: (i) an initial US$30 million to be invested shortly after the admission to trading on AIM of the First Tranche Placing Shares; and (ii) for a period of 24 months following the completion of the Placing, a right for the investment group to subscribe for an additional US$60 million of new Ordinary Shares at the Placing Price (the “Additional Potential Investment”).
Read section 1, introduction. It’s in there. Not posting to try and be smart btw, I am only interested in my investment, not yours. It’s a big document so, in my mind it’s acceptable that some posters might not know the wording in detail, and, as ever it’s all open to interpretation As for a fraud.... well, only I know the answer to that one...
I am in two minds about this Jim (in terms of ‘stakeholders’) - let’s say shareholders with some sort of agreement in place, or security or whatever it is. Firstly - this is all seven, SAVP are trying to acquire the assets. In that regard, all SAVP can do is try and reach a deal that works for them, seven is the business that is in trouble (actually they are bust, and will be entering into a bankruptcy process if this deal falls through, no question) They were not public ally traded, so it narrows the investment potential of the shares - so it makes sense to me that it is likely to be larger entities that held shares. In this regard if the shareholder has the capability to manage, or cut a deal for someone else to manage any of sevens assets and they hold some sort of security as a shareholder, and they are ‘up for the fight’, and if they have the financial backing for the fight (advisors, costs etc), then they have a decision to make - and I would agree this could be a spanner in the works - and it is rightly identified in the principle risks associated with SAVP today. However, there is an element of time presssure involved with the assets themselves, including personnel running the assets. Firstly seven do not have the cash (apart from that afforded by SAVP) to continue running the assets. Frontier for example have started proceeding against seven for unpaid costs - SAVP will settle with them, but only when the deal goes through. This adds time pressure to that particular asset. The midstream assets (uquo cpf) has been identified as being at risk of the staff leaving due to an uncertain future, and they are essentially on skeleton staff anyway. A principle risk here is the cpf not running due to staffing or technical issue, and defaulting on the contracted volumes. In this case, the value of the seven business’s begin to be impacted in my mind. Much more on this but can’t really be bothered to post, but I am not convinced currently that this is a failure, but it is a mess. We have come back to market halfway through the deal, due to the listing deadline with a lot to be progressed. The principle risks when reading them willl give any investor the fright of their lives, this is true for many companies. Read some of the mid cap producers in the North Sea from 2 years ago and you see what I mean. In my humble, and I am sure flawed opinion, this has to be read with some context. My personal (and objective -believe it or not) opinion right now is that it would be a massive own goal for bondholders to turn down the exchange offer. I think the ‘stakeholders’ should get proper advice, but there may not be much of a business left by the time they get moving..... imo
Read the document Jim, first 30m to be paid shortly after the admission of the first tranche (which is today). Does not sound like that is dependant on the transaction to me
Initial investment of 30m due shortly after admission of the first tranche (12m). The company will have 42m$ (minus the 8.8 m$ outstanding from the RCF) should the deal not go ahead and the second tranche not be issued. They will not be insolvent as you stated Jim.
Missed that point, thanks. Interesting that shareholders have this agreement. I would have thought they would have been involved in some sort of process if this is the case, another point for me to clarify with SAVP. It’s a long list
So your comment is related to suppliers in general. Yes, agree. There will be some that will loose out I would assume. Although legal proceedings and a resolution if that route was explored would also be lengthily and costly to any supplier (or stakeholder as you called them). It’s not my biggest concern.....
Read it in detail, several times. I was asking which stakeholders you are referring to that can block the deal, apart from the weight of the SSN holders. Since over 90% of the SSN holders already agreed (albeit different terms from my understanding), who else can block the deal? Nigerian officials?
Who specifically can block the deal?
Protected themselves? They are protected? No more protection than any other shareholder Jim88. What SAVP has said is they the second tranche is conditionally placed pending the approval of resolutions 2 and 3 at the AGM, and the acceptance of the exchange offer or scheme approvals for the SSNs. They don’t need to money until this happens so there are many ways you could say this. I think you will find there is a likelihood current shareholders would not vote for it at the agm, and SAVP would not conduct the placing if the holders of the SSNs turned down the deal, and in effect the acquisition was cancelled. Think that was what you meant. But since nobody asked, you felt you wanted to share this information I assume? I expect you are going to be posting the many ways in which shareholders are not protected over the coming days/weeks/months so I am surprised you have said shareholders are protecting themselves. In fact, as you say, the fact that they can give money to the SSN holders and potentially not receive the assets due to Nigerian Gov approvals means they are not protected. Either way, let’s see. For holders here, the exchange offer going ahead as soon as possible in jan will be a good result.
Agreed.
thanks, Im afraid I do not agree on the communication though. I read the RNS in their entirety and I understood it - although it has taken a few reads. the RNS regarding the placing has to be read in its entirety. it is aimed at the investors so is worded in a certain fashion. put simply - unless you qualify as an institutional investor, the RNS simply informs you of whats up. PIs may like daily fluffy information fed to them, but that's not business. it must be clear that they are busy, and making progress (although not as quick as expected). as mentioned, we will be told the placing price when Barclays and the company agree on it based on the bookbuild. yesterday we also say there is more going on in the background. frankly, it looks to me like they are flat out, and I am interested to watch it come together. I am sure there are a lot of commercial sensitivities with whatever is going on also. these are only my views. I like the strategy that we appear to be seeing evolve - I have posted on this from the start of the year and I am happy to see my investment begin to deliver. I firmly believe this is not an isolated transaction, because this is what we have been told in an RNS. personally I think I have all the information I need at the moment, until they announce the results of the placing.
not if it buys them the SAA
e) The Bookbuild is expected to close between 15 December 2017 and 18 December 2017 but may close earlier or later, at the discretion of the Global Co-ordinator and the Company. The timing of the closing of the books and allocations will be agreed between the Global Co-ordinator and the Company following completion of the Bookbuild (the "Allocation Policy"). The Managers may, in agreement with the Company, accept offers to subscribe for Placing Shares that are received after the Bookbuild has closed. i) The Company will make a further announcement following the close of the Bookbuild detailing the Placing Price and the number of Placing Shares to be issued (the "Placing Results Announcement"). It is expected that such Placing Results Announcement will be made as soon as practicable after the close of the Bookbuild. the paragraphs above are from the RNS. It is possible that the announcement yesterday is the result of discussions that were formalised during the placing period - the company (ie our BOD) has the right to negotiate separate agreements and also to deal with places inside the US - Barclays sort out the rest. the announcement yesterday paves the way for acquisitions going forward - it means they can come to the table and demonstrate a certain level of accessible finance. it is interesting that this comes from a previous large investor in Seven. the above paragraphs indicate work that is going on. personally, at this end of the investment I am happy to let it happen. amidst all the noise here, there is clearly a big opportunity a cashed up business can take advantage of in Nigeria. there is the possibility of adding in excess of 21 m $ worth of oil production a month if the SAA arrives for up to 200m$, plus more etc for the researched. the company need cash to fulfil these obligations but the potential for whoever gets it right will be pretty big. I cant really see anyone else in this position at the moment. for balance, if we suddenly find out there is no appetite from II's in supporting this strategy, it will be bad news. but raising funds for this has been in the making all along. it would be very surprising (to me) to find out they could not raise the funds.
Notification of provisional Auction results Notify bidders whether they’ve been provisionally awarded a Capacity Agreement C 20:00 or C+1 07:00 Friday 03/02/2017 or Monday 06/02/2017