Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hi OaW,
You have $590m ‘cash flow’ on your post - do you mean annual revenue? I come up with around $380m revenue per year, which is the $532m over a 42 month period adjusted for 12 months plus accugas. None of that if FCF, it’s total revenue.
All we have to go on for potential profit, or fcf is the dividends paid from the midstream business ($150m ish).
My guess is 500m shares equity raise at circa 20p giving $130m ish. Further 100m shares @20p as options/payment. Circa $500m debt funded (if there is good appetite to fund this or there will be bigger fundraise, which will have to be attractive).
So we end up $500m debt (against this asset), plus any potential further payments - not clear yet but rns hinta at $50m (milestone payments?) and MCAP of $300m plus options.
Net debt of circa $880-900m across all assets. That’s a $1.2b valuation on revenues of circa $376m PA (adjusted and estimated for 12 months - is that right…?) and indicated dividend (excluding existing business) of $ 161m PA.
That’s at a 20p SP.
Just done this on my phone quickly so is not detailed, so feel free to go over it and add more detail.
I believe the strategy is to grow dividend revenue here, not necessarily capital appreciation (posted this a few years ago here), so I’m not sure the is a lot of room for the multi bags some Might expect.
Any idea why AK has recently resigned as the director of SAvannah petroleum ltd 1 and 2 recently? These are subsidiaries of SAVP that hold the Niger assets.
The ‘new administration’ is frightened to proceed with many projects. Some of the individuals I have spoken to recently, in Nigeria in this industry have said they believe it is because they do not want to be perceived as corrupt and so are not really approving any deals. There is evidence, and again told by people I have spoken to who live there, that the country is suffering because of it, with power cuts for extended periods etc. One of the individuals I am in contact with is attempting to set up a power generation business and he is facing this issue from their government.
With this context, with the history of these assets and the allegation of massive money laundering with 7e and/or associated companies/shareholders and members of the previous administration, and now reports questioning the world bank due Diligence process, You have to admit, there is a reason for the hold up. And a possible reason for the TO not going ahead. Buhari allowing these assets to go to a U.K. company when he could alledge they were built with money from the Nigerian government?
In the news vacuum, we are allowed to speculate, no?
Of course, all this information is available to the public, any interpretation on it is my own and could be totally incorrect. Either way, do your own research etc etc.
Next up, I wonder how AK managed to get his hands on the licences in Niger? If so, please share. Really interested to hear that story.
*raising, not raiding!
Not true trek.
Golden eagle was set up to get oil leases in Alaska from NordAq when NordAq defaulted on repayments of a loan AK and Lothian made to it while Devine was in charge. Despite NordAq (Devine) raiding further funds. Via a farm in for NordAq.
When Devine left NordAq the new owners of NordAq wanted the leases back. You can see there was lawsuits between AK and Lothian Vs NordAq. I was mentioning it on this board at the time, and I believe the lawsuits was subsequently completed in private.
The link I posted yesterday showed that golden eagle (AK) has passed the licences back to nordaq but kept a 1.5% royalty. This seems to indicate That AK has had to transfer ownership back to Nordaq for whatever reason. This happened on Oct 18, so I expect will show up in the accounts for GE over the next year or so.
I don’t have facts, I don’t think many people will have bit it’s all a bit murky. I did hear a rumour, unsubstianted and I believe it was alleged in the court documents that the ex ceo of nordaq (Devine), subsequently went to work for Lothian (of whom AK is the 100% owner of holding all the shares today I believe) which, if true raises a question as to why he would be in favour with Lothian and AK having lost money to a deal with Nordaq. They did get some oil leases next to a rumoured 5billion barrel oil discovery though.....
I don’t expect this post to be up for long.
http://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Leasing/2018-10-04_Assignment_Decision_NordAq_Energy_Inc_Golden_Eagle_Petroleum_Limited_v1_0.pdf
Just a bit of background really.
someone reported it and it got removed. i know who reported it. this is a forum to talk about this share. stop reporting my posts for posting what is freely available on the web.
https://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/11696-SevenEnergyweb-proshare.pdf
Placing done before the end of jan for a reason?
30m which will trigger the debt facility. This has been obvious since they released the mistaken RNS on the debt facility confirming they needed either completion of 7e or a equity raise of 30m. I would expect news on Niger to follow swiftly after the completion of the bookbuild.
Has been a lot of PR about lately.
Been waiting for that. I expected it before Christmas.
& Amdigh-1 well test to be performed in December 2018;
& Confirmation of Early Production Scheme ("EPS") plans anticipated to develop a recoverable resource base of 52 mmbbls, with a first phase expected to see production of c.1kbd from Q1 2019 and a second phase development planned to see production ramp up to c.5kbd during 2019;
& Net capital expenditure to first oil expected to be less than US$5m, with external financing requirement 60% lower vs. the Company's conceptual development solution announced in November 2016;
& Savannah's Competent Person, CGG Robertson, has reviewed the EPS plans and associated cost structure and has assessed these to be reasonable;
& 120 mapped exploration targets identified on Savannah's acreage for future drilling consideration;
& Confirmation from the the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum of Niger that the pre-feasibility study for a second export pipeline from Niger to the Benin coast has been completed, with the feasibility study planned to be completed by end 2018 with a view to first oil exports in 2021.
Amdigh-1 Well Test Plans
Following the Company's discovery at the Amdigh-1 well, announced on 6 June 2018, Savannah's Niger subsidiary ("Savannah Niger") has elected to perform its first test on this well. It is intended that an electric submersible pump ("ESP") will be installed downhole using a workover rig during the month of December 2018. The workover rig is expected to be hired from Great Wall Drilling Company Niger SARL ("GWDC"). Savannah Niger expects to rent the associated surface equipment required for the test.
Last year!!!
I know it was not directed at me pickledpeck, but having looked at the presentation amer put out today, I would think it likely they revalue the asset. The recent transaction is an addition anyway so it is going to look very attractive from an asset perspective.
Separately, I think the main theme here is a major must be pretty confident it can get reasonable amounts of oil to market. And a share which many have sold at a loss has delivered a partnership on some of its acerage that demonstrates the class of the depth that Amer have.
Surely it’s why so many instutions are involved here. For the pi - it’s hard to see the wood for the trees if you are glued to these bb posts all day long.
Received World Bank backing - reported in Africa Intelligence.
The terms as announced are more beneficial to SAVP. You can see this if you look. You can not argue the previously announced terms do not Benidorm SAVP.
SAVP announced yesterday they are seeking the changes. It will be benificial immediately to SAVP financially.
Your statements are currently not relevant. I repeat, unless SAVP themselves are directly lying, which will land executives in prison (especially with the institutional investment here) then you can’t really say it is down to corruption.
I would spend more time to debat this, but I’m travelling and also a bit lazy. SAVP are on record saying the delay is down to them - by that I mean our CEO. It would not be too hard to corroborate this - by that I mean get proof in a lawsuit situation, and I credit the board and AK with a bit more savvy than that.
I think your post is far too simplistic and shows the limits of your knowledge. Sorry if that comes across as rude but it’s my opinion. And this is a public bb where anyone can post anything they want - so little pi’s who read it and are swayed in their investment by a post on here need to be careful, because that shows you are being influenced by whatever you read, positive or negative.
You want the detailed assessment of what your posting, read the risks and uncertainties in the most recent admission document. It is clearly listed for you - can copy and paste on this bb to your hearts content.
I am sure all competent investors are familiar with it...
There is reading between the lines, and not really reading at all.
Firstly read the RNS announcement that this one refers to. It says a MOU was signed by frontier, SUGL and accugas to progress in good faith, with the intent of giving sugl full control of the CPF (with its 200mmscf/d + gas processing capacity). It confirmed the UERL buyout was agreed. It gave the terms of the MOU and said all parties were working together to progress this within 30 days.
Today we have SAVP announce they are pleased to announce they are seeking further amendments which will be immediately cash generatitive above the current case.
Read between the lines.....?
If there are lies in these statements then there will be lawsuits all over the place. A rather quick, shoot from the hip post regarding ‘reading between the lines’ ‘years of experience’ seems a bit silly when the information exists and is shared by the company.
Your post suggests the company is lying. There are no shades of grey with what they have released. It is clear if you read the information announced.
It’s probably why not many people are posting. They have the information they need.
Shell also missed hurricane oils fields. They did not listen to their geologist. So he left them, set up a company and got the licences...
This share is being traded like hell for pennies.
Derisked because the payments etc etc
Ahh, should have checked. Accugas, and the rest of the spelling mistakes - well, blame on AI. We are all the victims.
if your doing research, you really have to spend the time to read the initial and most recent admission documents. This is not your standard AIM co, and imo will smash charcoal’s achievement.
The purpose of the accused vehicle is to distribute the proceeds to the owners, of which SAVP is one. I’m fairly confident AK is the ‘director’ of this arrangement. By that I mean he has assumed an acceptable level of exposure to accuses in terms of the debt pile, and constructed a consortium to own the rest of that business, who are basically a financial institution. As part of the terms, he has also left the door open to access a further 10%.
If your doing research, and of a business mind, research the history of the assets related to accugas. It’s easy to find.
It’s derided because the payment are guaranteed.
I can’t advise on research, but look into the boss here. He is unique, and imo someone you want to associate money with. He has the potential to create the next shell - no joke. But he won’t. Like he said, everything has a price. I believe he already has an exit strategy. And a lot of IIs believe so too. Getting interesting right now too. IA comes through and I might even celebrate a little...!