Member Info for RNSTranslator

Ah Good old Malcy, aka rent a quote...
What Malcy said Today "whilst concentrating unduly on other assets notably West Newton"
What Malcy said previously "... the Zechstein is about to be tested, the process has taken a long time and the jury is out, for what it’s worth I have nailed my positive colours to the mast and feel that UJO and RBD will be successfully be rewarded in six weeks time."

Blows with the wind...

I think the lack of share price movement on todays news of cashflow simply reflects that the market now wants to see real delivery, not promises. There was some lack of clarity ion the news regarding what does "net" actually mean, is this revenues net to UJO (ie 40% of gross) or is it net revenues to UJO after opex costs?
I think the market has pretty much written off WN, at least for the next 6 months, and indeed RBD are now focussing on selling Victory and Cali, tells you that their WN asset story has moved on.
So the real question is the value of Wressle, the new CPR would be helpful, because to be frank, stating instantaneous rates of 844bbls/day or significantly above 500/day, whilst positive, is not helpful in actually valuing the field, which requires an understanding of its decline profile and what is ultimately recoverable, so the ultimate income profile can be calculated, which will determine the share price. ALL fields decline and we don't yet have the information to know how fast. Some folk talk as if its a huge annual number that simply goes on indefinitely... that's simply not the case...its what are the revenues and what do you plan to do with them that the market really wants to understand.

"Lets see when I wake up the price."
I admit you've tried hard, but you haven't yet woken up the price...

Price 0.4p
"If I remember correctly, according to an old CPR West Newton has an NPV OF £250m on gas alone. Since then they've discovered there's also an oil lake the size of Loch Ness, and the gas extends for miles. No wonder those who want to drive the share price down are getting a bit hysterical."

Seems to me the company did the work of driving the price down, the gas volumes have been reduced by 80% and the oil is single figure recoverable (all as per published info their website)...

Sorry RNSTranslator, I added an extra 1200 quid in there. Bad of me ramping like that!
And of course you forget the opex and the Calmar payment of 2.9mm USD.
But of course the are just rounding errors...

Fair point Dream on... its about futures prices, not current.
This is a rush to sell whilst Gas remains expensive, so its the obvious time to try and sell.
Who ever buys will need to negotiate access with Total and the transportation and processing fee, and a better capitalised company who has the funding to develop is probably better placed to do that..
The graph of line capacity pg 21 BNP report does however point to the fact that Totals plans for Glendronach is key.
It shows that as they move to low pressure then Glendronach production is capped 26-29 by the introduction of Victory volumes.
As owners of Glendronach, I would have though Total would want that in the system uncapped before they bring in 3rd party volumes...that may or may not be the reality, but that's what the production throughput graph is saying...

Thats $20,400 over 7 days equates to nearly £105,000! PER WEEK!
Really????

I’ll take that as an admission that you think RPS are smarter than Chevron. Gutsy call after HUR.

So simple question
Chevron said 100bcf RPS say 179bcf
Shell say 1.24 mm bbls Schlum say 39mm bbls…
Who do you believe?
What did Shell and Chevron get wrong?

This is his HUR broke the news on the catastrophic miscalculation of the OWC (and reserves) in the 2017 RPS CPR
“ The Lancaster oil water contact ("OWC") is now estimated to be at 1,330 metres TVDSS, compared to the range of 1,597-1,678 metres TVDSS in the Company's 2017 Competent Person's Report ("2017 CPR"). This shallower OWC is consistent with the observed earlier and higher water production, and more rapid reservoir pressure decline, than was originally anticipated.”

The thing is it’s not my numbers vs RPS and Schlum,
It’s Chevron and Shell vs RPS and Schlum.
So you think they’re smarter than Shell and Chevron???

Selfish
Have you heard of Hurricane and their pre development RPS CPR.., if you did you wouldn’t be quite so ****sure…
RPS CPR OW contact 1600m , actual contact after production info 1300m that’s 300m out, reserves decimated, … so you ask “don’t you trust them” ask a HUR shareholder if they do.

Selfish, if you read even RBDs presentation you’ll know they have a WUT (Water up to) and a GDT (Gas down to) the contact is de facto somewhere between the two, both Chevron and RBD use the same for the mid case…

If you think Corallian/RBD/RPS is smarter than chevron in calculating reserves then it looks like you’re on a winner.

A bit like they were smarter than Shell on Curlew A after they relinquished…Remember that imminent drilling of the 39mmbbl discovery, after shooting a well site survey, that was quietly forgotten, The one that Shell thought was only 1.24mm bbls…
Or Colter (aka Colter South) a 15mm bbl “discovery” that was was also quietly dropped.
Or WN, the biggest thing since 1973 with now possible recoverable reserves of 8-13 mm bbls of oil gross…(if they can get it to actually flow)
All published numbers not an “I believe” or “I think” eh Heid.

For those who follow form:
Curlew-A : RBD said
“ Curlew-A appraisal well planned for drilling in H2’19 subject to farm- out (well is partially farmed out to date)
• Contingent 2C resource of 39 mm bbl.

Shell in their report 2016 said: 1.24mm bbls.
https://dataogauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/relinqs/P2058.pdf

I’ll let people make their own minds up.
Chevron calculated 100bcf recoverable RBD has 170bcf recoverable.

Interesting comment from SW in today's video:
3m:20s onwards "It didn't get developed decades ago... it was remote and no access to infrastructure.. completely changed now"
Here are the actual facts: This discovery was relinquished by Chevron (in 2018), some 2 years after the infrastructure became available in 2016, so at best that's a slightly misleading statement.
So why didn't Chevron develop it ? Well, you can find their report here, and make your own mind up and see what Chevron thought of the volumes and risks:

https://dataogauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/relinqs/Jan2019/Chevron_P183_Block_207_1a_Relinquishment_Report_June_2018.pdf

Gas prices in 2018 - For information gas prices in 2018 were above 50p per therm (see here)
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/67BC/production/_120665562_optimised-gas_uk_price-nc.png

Too early… of course this is the RBD board.., ??

Valuation upside is indeed .36p for RBD, this is the UJO board and simply suggests that UJO’s upside in WN is far less than the transformational scale previously suggested by both company’s.

GP not GO!