Member Info for RN1MLT

Hi Chester18,

Thank you for keeping this BB lively and stimulating useful discussions.

More than happy to donate £100 to CRUK, when the SP hits 2.5p, I will be crying with joy when that day arrives!!

Ta

Hi Chester18,

I will stick with my target SP of 1.56p***.

Ta

Aa, cheers Jurado for pointing that out, indeed I didn't phrase it correctly!! Missed out the all important 'not' in the sentence!!!!

Hi Mafuta

As I said, I am not at all worried, maybe I didn't phrase it well. I meant it doesn't really matter as we are seeing buying at these levels from IIs, so quite the opposite. I was merely pointing to a glaring 4% hole from yesterday's trading, a missing part of the puzzle, which hopefully gets filled soon.

Good news indeed, that too in the region of 0.44p, tells me the current range of the fair price (~0.55p, 20% discount for IIs will land it at 0.44p). More importantly, the confidence on the near/mid term prospects for TRX.

We are still waiting to here about another 4% of the holdings (if we think 6% was sold yesterday), hopefully we will get it by Tuesday but I am worried, just good to know about all the big players in the play.

After doing a bit of number crunching, here is the summary of today's trades:

Potential sells: 475,289,299 (Avg. price - 0.4126p); of these 231,106,321 (Avg. price - 0.4242p) are 'LRGS' trades reported late to the market

Potential buys: 301,694,065 (Avg. price - 0.4424p)

So there are hopefully more buys to come (~175M) tomorrow, in any case at 300M, if it is a new II who bought the shares, they have crossed 3% and have to report it when they have reached their final position.

You're right Chester18, the volume sold is more than double of what Spredex had, so will be curious to see where the rest of the volume came from. Makes me rethink about the raise we had to 0.6p recently, which could have prompted some sells from recent buyers at 0.25p.

It will be positive to see the new director, Brian Phillips, contributing by bringing in LTHs and IIs to this company. I might be jumping the gun here, but It will be interesting to see if the new II has any connection with Brian Phillips.

At 2.99%, they had 210M shares, which is in the range of today's sells. Also, I think most of the sells at .43 could be buys as Spredex were forced to sell at .4p. A new set of massive sells and a 125M reported so will have to digest this. But yes, all of this should result in an holding RNS hopefully tomorrow.

Looking at today's volume of 370M, and the big sells (90M+87M+10M+10M) which equate to around 200M, IMO SpreadEx Ltd are sold out now. Its nice to see that the shares are gobbled up by IIs too.

I think so too... a cool 10m trade at 16:17 IMO is a buy.. with other many dotted 1M+ buys today.. around 20M bought..

@ GliUlivi - I understand the frustration,it stings pretty badly when diluted so massively. Normally when something like this happens you can buy more to average down but in this case it is not advisable since most of the old IIs have jumped the ship and the new ones have extracted their price. I agree with you, the company has to work hard and that too at a good pace to even achieve 1p SP but I have confidence in the science and products of this company and predict a takeover by a bigger medical health company just for the patents and FDA/CE approvals (They are barriers for the new products from rivals to enter the market, which a bigger company can exploit and milk revenue at healthy margins). I must clarify, I have only entered into this stock after the dilution after watching from the sidelines for a long time.
My understanding for such a low offer price was 1) After Woodford left or shall I say screwed TRX, other IIs, predominantly IP group didn't see a case to put more money. 2) The directors, who got replaced recently, were IMO tasked with getting funding to the company, they have failed spectacularly! The new IIs valued this company at 1.3x of sales, which is exploitation (they will say this is the art of investing), however now they have to back the company in the subsequent fund raises if not they will lose. I believe the IIs have also priced this into their valuations. So, effectively what happened was that TRX was 'sold off' to a new set of 'Owners' by a distressed bunch of old owners (Woodford were eager to get rid of their 20% stake to pay back to the investors, so I don't think they will be keen to bargain for a good price for it!).
I had invested in another company, HZD, which got also hit by woodford, their board managed to find a buyer for the woodford's share of ~21% very quickly, managed to contain the damage to the SP to around 20%, other IIs stayed the course until eventually the company was acquired by PerkinElmer.

My price action analysis predicted this downward movement to close the gap to 0.46p, I was so tempted to do what many here were doing i.e sell at around 0.56 and buy back again at 0.48 but couldn't muster the confidence as I think there is one more RNS due before the year end giving us update on the trading for this year and phase 1 expansion which could move this share upwards and set a new base at around 0.55p.

My take on TRX is that we are not a penny stock, at least we don't behave like that with ~80% stock controlled/owned by IIs, VCs and insiders. In line with Chester18's analysis in the past, we will be moving up step by step over the next 12-18 months, based on the company hitting various milestones in revenue generation. But at every stage my understanding is that the IIs will make money/de-risk by loaning their shares to MMs for making the market (0.1p difference could make them 100's of thousands of pounds!!) and allowing for re-rating of this stock, this is what we could be witnessing now IMO. Unlike us, IIs cannot jump the ship in case of a disaster without blowing themselves up in the process!! For them the viable end game will be to either 1) sell the company off (M&A) or 2) pass the baton to the new set of investors. The stage the company is in now, option 2 will not be possible unless we improve and become profitable, when that happens we will all be happy with our 2-3x multiples!! So, I will not panic but keep watching the progress.

With the subject knowledge, I can tell that they have some very cool IPs, now, recovering from the woodford saga, they just have to commercialise their existing products and in 5 years time we should be a 300M Mcap company. But, if the IP group wants an early exit on this stock (in 1-2 years), I am afraid we will be sold off for half of that!

Davies101 - No, actually that is my SP prediction if we achieve 22M in sales, which is 70% growth Y/Y which is predicted by analysts (also IMO this is what the company has projected to the new IIs for the next 2 years). If the company hits the target 22M sales (or on track to achieve this), then the market will valve us above the 5x sales multiples, which gives us a Mcap of 110M and SP of 1.56p. Current SP is always a reflection of future performance of the company so I am hoping this will have been priced in by OCT 2021, although we will not get the final figures for 2021 until Q12022. If we get bought around that time, we will be asking for a valuation in the region of 185M Mcap (5x of 37M in sales), a SP of 2.6p at current dilution.Again my figure of 37M in sales is based on us achieving 70% Y/Y growth for 2 years and M&A will be based on discounted future sales. 

Morning Chester, thanks for adding me to the list, also please put a * next to it for my CRUK. Ta

Not surprised with the no SP response to these RNSs and not worried as well, as the SP is mainly reflective of revenue or discounted future revenue. As things stand, we are getting a re-rating to 0.55p, which is 3x sales, a minimum multiple for biotechs at this stage. IMO, the market got a clear indication from the company that they are on target to achieve the 13M sales for this year, hence we will see a re-rate to 0.55p by the end of this year. Once the confidence builds in this company, we should see it re-rated to 5x sales, a typical multiple for loss making biotechs with excellent growth prospects and profit margins.

Chester18, I have been following this board for a while (invested for over 6 months now) and value your contribution to keeping it lively and real. Just jumped in today as I see we are turning a corner and all these changes are giving me an indication that in 1year to 1.5 years we will break-even, the coming year will be exciting for us. My SP prediction for OCT 2021, will be 1.56p with 22M in sales.

I think the RNS just mentioned that BPC is due to expect the CPR in mid-Nov but not that they will release it to the market in mid-Nov. So they may have already recieved it by now, they will have to now frame there statement and release it with a comprehensive plan on how to develop them, which I guess will take time.