Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Same for me... I never post unless I have anything valuable to add to the discussion. The way this BB has changed, I don't want to post and give oxygen to the FUD artists at play here. I am sad at the way they have highjacked my genuine query to GRH this afternoon and used it to spin there lies.
I have followed PG for 2 years before investing in PRD, only after I had confidence that T&T was happening. When I bought, it was way below true value for T&T project, that has only improved. For Morocco, I would say see the actions of the BoD, new Coo to co-ordinate operations is a strong message, more importantly understand the geological set up needed to have a play like this where a large kitchen is feeding across a larger area.
JohnH - ''Market Makers weren’t sure how to price the news so they simply let market forces drive the direction'' - If you have any experience in investing you will know this is not true. We retail investors cannot force the MMs to take a loss, which they did by opening and buying few millions of shares above13p. If in doubt, they will simply increase the spread and lower the bid to protect their margins.
GRH, if you can, any inputs on my query would be highly appreciated, thanks.
I understand you are not running a ‘free advice service on market forces’ but would greatly appreciate your take/observations on the 1st 2-3 minutes of trading in PRD following the MOU1 update RNS.
I have been investing for years (mainly biotech/pharma – my domain) and have followed market movements, both up and down, based on 7am released RNS, but never I have seen MMs opening the market at the previous day’s close on ‘perceived bad news’ like we have seen with PRD, why do you think this happened?
I tried my best to read and understand the reasons for this over the last week but failed, so any pointers would be greatly appreciated.
Ta,
R
Anyone who was going through this last week, would have realised that there was a buying pressure for this share, any amount up to 1M was getting a 7.8p to 8p price from MM.... I was wondering why if this was a duster?... Also, never seen MMs not dropping the price on the bell to 40%... These two puzzles now have an answer...
at 7.8p, there is demand for shares... reason, we have more data and not going in blind for MOU4.. Also I have been asking myself why skip MOU2-3 and go to MOU4, while you have EIA in place for MOU1-3?.. One possible conclusion for me was, MOU1-3 were intended to understand the gas play of this area and then use that data to find the so called 'Kitchen'... good news is that we appear to have found it with just 1 well... Again, I will be waiting for the full explanation of the results and the reason behind it and also expect to see some interest from other operators if this is true!
Hi everyone,
I had been busy with work hence could not contribute much but still holding strong.
Last update was good, I asked 2 questions during the CEO meet, both were answered well.
1) White label product got traction and sales expected to contribute few millions (less than 10mil) to revenue in due course. This is big because the technology is totally de-risked and, on the path, to realising it full commerciality. New lines of products will be released for sure by next year!
2) No more fund raising unless it is for growing the business, i.e., Phase 1 will allow TRX to breakeven and generate cashflow to be re-invested for phase 2 expansion in 12 months. Phase 2 will be delayed until demand for the product increases dramatically and if they want to take a quantum jump to next stage, like acquiring new business while expanding etc., they will do a placing, and this could be at NASDAQ. I think BOD believes that TRX needs to stand on its own feet and be able to accelerate growth before they can sell it to the American investors, so this is 12-18 months down the line for me. For them 3x or 5x multiples is dirt cheap!! They will invest at around that price but ensure it reaches 10x or more.
A trading update in August/September with numbers till date and guidance for the year is what I am expecting. My intelligence from the research places and hospitals is that USA had ‘sneezed the COVID away’ and it has been like this for over 2 months now. Unlike us in UK, they just do not care anymore about new variants bla bla bla…. So, I am expecting around 17M revenue for this year for TRX.
Take care!
Best
Hi all,
Same mood as everyone, not anxious for tomorrow’s results – cannot see any short-term events affecting the future of TXP in a substantial way.
I see some posters expressing concern wrt the cash burn rate. As per the last RNS, for 2020 it was 550K/month, but this will also have a part of phase 1 costs added. My calculations for 2021, again based on last RNS, were that we have reduced the admin costs from 13M to around 9.5 M. Even with a modest increase in sales to 16M, with 48% margin, will give us a 7.7M. That will be mean a 1.8M/year or 150K/month – excluding Phase-1/2 costs. I think this is manageable because we will see Ops recover by end of 2021, so by Q3 2022 the company can declare it will break even by end of the year. I have submitted my question on this topic, to see how confident the BoD is on this, hope they will answer it.
Best
Hi bendis,
Our support is around 0.57p, we bounced back from there last week... not sure if we will test it again this time, might well do but will be very hard to time it in my opinion. I managed to pick up shares at 0.59p and 0.58p last week..
If you are planning to hold for at least 1 year, then you are less likely to be under water and more likely to be at a decent profit margin.
Best
Cheers GRH for sharing your thoughts, much appreciated!
I do not believe political parties will be pragmatic with their policies, they just take positions that gives them the maximum advantage over their rivals. But the government should do the opposite and prioritise national interest and safety over and above anything, including principles, morals, and ethics. So, the Greens who are part of the government should act differently to their party, which could mean political suicide for them unless they manage to convince their party that by not acting in the Ireland’s interest and sticking to their ‘we are a party of mother earth and every earthling is our voter’ moto, could wipe out the Green party itself in Ireland. Germany’s Greens threatening the Irish energy security should help in this lobbying process.
I like the direction PG is moving now to provide a package of things that include energy security with FRSU, CO2 sequestration/CCS, and increased investment in to ‘Green alternatives’. Something that could stand a chance to pass as it solves more than one problem without creating a new one!
Best
Morning GRH!
I did, in fact I studied this presentation a long time ago and made an expectations road map against which I am plotting the course of Paul's actions/progress. There were times when I doubted his intentions - my theory was CO2-EOR was just a side show to get advantage in the politically charged Ireland (Having the 'Green' CO2-EOR badge makes it easy to sell). While this still could be the case, COVID could have changed his plans and now he can monetise each of these units separately.
Morocco is also very very interesting, specially how he ended up getting that licence, the speed with which he disposed off the convertible loan… Read a lot of published research on the Basin and its potential for Gas discovery – very interesting!
Btw, I am one of those many who monitors this BB regularly but do not comment as I have nothing new to offer. I was in early, put the maximum I ever wated to invest in PRD then, not a fan of averaging up as one mostly loses money, sitting on 4+ bags now, have enough safety room to weather the lows, if they ever come our way.
Btw, congrats on your first of many £Millions from this investment!!
Best
Re posting as my previous one never got published!!
Hi Ginandmilk,
Me too, I do not keep a target on SP – If it is undervalued has growth potential with limited downward risk, I will keep the stock. Also, it is too early to fix an exit price for TRX for anybody, we are far from take off, still taxing to the runway IMO.
However, I have a range of figures where I believe TRX will be/should be in next 1-2 years, again these are based on current/future projected revenues. The big disconnect for this stock is its valuation – just 3-4 times of sales!!!! For a company with strong IP, FDA and CE approval, huge growth potential and 2-3 years of sales traction in key markets of US and UK, this is an insult!!
Let me explain:
If you go through the company books for the period of 2017, when woodford and Invesco owned 54% (Invesco - 28%, woodford - 26%) of this company and made the acquisition of ‘Cell Right technologies’, TRX was valued at 20x sales (revenue was 5.2M with 116M Mcap)!!! The projection then was that TRX will generate 70% Y/Y growth figures over time (4-5 years) hence it was classed as high growth stock with 20x sales multiples. You know what, TRX exceeded those growth numbers but when it needed more cash to expand so that it can keep growing at more than 70%Y/Y, woodford collapsed and Invesco pulled all the money out of this stock, so they could not raise money in time to keep up with the growth, hence sales flattened at 13-14M. While the revenue of the company more than doubled from 2017 to 2019, the value of the company collapsed from 116M to 11.7M (10 times!!!) which then ‘recovered’ to 17.5M when the ‘May 2020’ placing happened. So, the poor stock performance is disconnected from the revenue growth or future growth potential of the company.
Despite everything negative that was happening with SP, we worked with top10 health care company for 2 years to develop products and launched one, grafted along to get the CE approval for OrthoPure® XT, educated the market with our Urogyn and dermis product lines. With the latest funding, this for me gives the company potential to grow at 70 Y/Y for next 4-5 years. Soon, we will get valued at 20x sales, when that happens, I will be re-evaluating my position here, so 20x sales is my target valuation for this company.
It could be 35M in sales by Q12023 or 50M in sales by Q12024!
Best
Hi Ginandmilk,
Me too, I do not keep a target on SP – If it is undervalued has growth potential with limited downward risk, I will keep the stock. Also, it is too early to fix an exit price for TRX for anybody, we are far from take off, still taxing to the runway IMO.
However, I have a range of figures where I believe TRX will be/should be in next 1-2 years, again these are based on current/future projected revenues. The big disconnect for this stock is its valuation – just 3-4 times of sales!!!! For a company with strong IP, FDA and CE approval, huge growth potential and 2-3 years of sales traction in key markets of US and UK, this is an insult!!
Let me explain:
If you go through the company books for the period of 2017, when woodford and Invesco owned 54% (Invesco - 28%, woodford - 26%) of this company and made the acquisition of ‘Cell Right technologies’, TRX was valued at 20x sales (revenue was 5.2M with 116M Mcap)!!! The projection then was that TRX will generate 70% Y/Y growth figures over time (4-5 years) hence it was classed as high growth stock with 20x sales multiples. You know what, TRX exceeded those growth numbers but when it needed more cash to expand so that it can keep growing at more than 70%Y/Y, woodford collapsed and Invesco pulled all the money out of this stock, so they could not raise money in time to keep up with the growth, hence sales flattened at 13-14M. While the revenue of the company more than doubled from 2017 to 2019, the value of the company collapsed from 116M to 11.7M (10 times!!!) which then ‘recovered’ to 17.5M when the ‘May 2020’ placing happened. So, the poor stock performance is disconnected from the revenue growth or future growth potential of the company.
Despite everything negative that was happening with SP, we worked with top10 health care company for 2 years to develop products and launched one, grafted along to get the CE approval for OrthoPure® XT, educated the market with our Urogyn and dermis product lines. With the latest funding, this for me gives the company potential to grow at 70 Y/Y for next 4-5 years. Soon, we will get valued at 20x sales, when that happens, I will be re-evaluating my position here, so 20x sales is my target valuation for this company.
It could be 35M in sales by Q12023 or 50M in sales by Q12024!
Best
Thanks for sharing this Mafuta… very useful for us PIs to keep reaffirming that we are not falling prey to tricksters!
I hold similar views or must say read and come to similar conclusions over the years on how market get manipulated and make it very hard for retail investors to realise the maximum potential of their investment.
My mantra has been ‘’Do a lot of research before investing then do it again in 10 different angles. Only invest if you understand the business and happy with the valuation’’. This way I can TRY and break my hardwired instincts that tell me buy when SP is increasing and sell when it is dropping. Instead, I want to buy when it has dropped to its support price (or in some cases when it is cheap) and do not sell until it has reached my target valuation (this must be reviewed regularly).
Best
mbingo – It was an ‘investormeetcompany’ organised event here is the link:
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/investor-presentation-relating-to-the-2020-interim-results-1
Thanks for pushing for this link as it allowed me to re-listen to the talk - it’s always more rewarding to rewind and analyse after few months of progress.
Btw, I stand corrected with my figure of £30M/year from the white label deal. That figure was not presented but he does say that ‘if I believe the figures that the customer is showing and expected sales from it, it will have a very significant impact on the revenues’ something to this effect – 25 minutes into the talk. He also adds that the space constraints will not impact this product line.
When I said we are undervalued, I was referring to current valuation of TRX with 13M sales, 9M cash and reduced operating costs of over 1M. Future valuation wise, as per information in the public domain, in 2-3 years’ time, if executed well, we will be a 300M Mcap company!!
mbingo - We have been informed by the CEO last year that the white label deal with the Top10 healthcare company has the potential to add £30M/year with the current processing capacity i.e. without the phase 1 and 2 expansion that is underway. In the last RNS, we have been informed that the feedback from the products is very good and that sales are expected to gain traction this year. So, we should expect more than that 150M Mcap when all of this is executed. Timewise, it will take 2-3 years to reach the full potential.
Ginandmilk – me too, happy to wait long to realise the full potential but will be keeping a keen eye on every word of the RNS and information from the industry colleagues.
Best
Hi all,
With a bit of calm returning to the SP, I added more to my holding today. IMO our support is somewhere between 0.6p and 0.55p and SP is currently undervalued (discounted for COVID, execution risk etc.).
We have strong IP, a new team focussed on accelerating the sales for our products and funding until 2022 (with phase 1 and 2 executed) or till 2023 (if Phase 2 is postponed/timed based on growth in sales). This is a mid-long term play with SP gradually increasing over a 3 month cycle until market gains confidence and that should trigger a re-rate to a minimum of 5x sales multiples.
I found the SP rally till 0.75p before the results very interesting as it was backed by huge volume. Of course, it must be a managed leak from an insider/advisor that caused it – IMO, a job well done to increase the visibility of our group.
I have a feeling that an II is accumulating for a position in TRX, hence the slide in price. We have seen this before twice in the last year, around 0.55p and 0.6p.
DYOR,
Best