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For me the most important thing from this RNS is that they have made $400k in H2, that is $66k/month CASH... which is the most relavent thing for me when measuring the sucuss of a company and potential of its products. One more year of growth and cash generation will prove the company is ready for next stage of ramping up.. very happy holder
I would not give any credit to my own speculations. On facts though, we are under valued by a factor of 70%, and should be trading in the 90p to 110p range. So this move is long overdue. Maybe this update will remove any remaining doubts about valuations, and it will naturally go this range.
I am invested here from 2020, waiting patiently, happy to wait another 18 months or so, when we should be 3 to 4 times of current price, not that keen to just take 100% of profit. Having said that if majority of the holders are happy with this there is nothing one can do. Also, growth needs funding, which leads to dilutions, so if an offer at the right level comes, why not!
I have been cracking my head from last night... expected an RNS this morning which didn't come... even the wording is not clear.. if I get it right, they were already vested these shares last year and we are not been told until now, which is bad, but I think it is more than that...may be a TO deal is in workings, and they are getting their ducks in the row.. I don't know.... all speculations
Sales as expected (which is very good progress), I like the use of 'core' revenue, gives me hope that my expectations of first revenue from OrthopureXT this year will be realised.
Share price wise, now trading at 1.5x P/S, which is very very cheap compared to peers and industry medain of 9x P/S. It is now at a 25% discount to TRX average of 2x P/S, wow!
For me it is one of two things:
1) A seller in the background - We did see Inthello take up 1% of the shares without any uptick in volume, where did they get the shares from?
2) We will see a 100-120% rasie with an RNS saying a buy out is agreed. You do see these kind of SP movements just before take outs.
I don't know which is the case but as I belive the company is signicantly undervalued (going below 60p is criminal without some very bad news or a seller), I have added 700 more to my kitty with the spare cash I had. Either it will correct back to above 60p or it will double, if it goes further down, I will ponder on adding more.
I have been working on my investments and going back to notes I left myself when I first invested here back in 2020, I started feeling something is off with TRX. The company is delivering on all what I had expected from them (normally I see that the hyperbola is exposed after a year or 2), so why is the SP not taking care of itself? I first thought they are keeping it down to sell it off or take it private by offering 100%, so need to keep it under 0.7p. But, looking through my notes I remembered that TRX received what I called as 'Crisis funding' in 2020. Some of the investors didn't fund the company to stay the course but to make their 2x/3x as and when they can. First it was Spreadx, now looks like it is Lombard. LOAM was at 16% in 2020, now they are at 9.3%. All these months they have been selling slowly which I think is keeping a lid on the SP.
I am not worried as such; the company is growing (taking market share) and now profitable. We are seeing new IIs jumping on board, who could be seeing this a good return in next 2 to 3 years. A good return for them should be at-least a SP of 1p or more, which is OK for me. This will be a slow burner though out 2023 unless we see some corporate action.
It's my ideal case scenario bobsson, nothing that I dreamt of but based on the IIs expressed vision for this company back in 2020/21. They see it to mature in 2025 for them. So, yes with current infrastructure they can pull in 50M revenue (with 10M from allograft product sales), if they grow at mid %20s for next 3 years they will be there and there abouts.
I do also think this current setup of management is for stabilising the business and achieving full potential of it organically, so will have to see new directors come in before and big moves.
On big pharma, my understanding is that they don't want to deal with the complexities of human tissue management side of things. The technology itself could be attractive and if TRX can prove it's potential for the pig allografts, then it will appeal to the big pharma as this business is scalable exponentially.
Hi Ginandmilk, minimun bid price is not at all an issue. The company will issue ADRs, each ADR could be 100 ordinary shares. So at 1p/share, 1ADR will be $1.2, but the more likely senario will be, we will have 1:10 consolidation and ADRs could be issued at $12 with 1:100.
This kind of thing is bread and butter stuff the more important thing for us is 'WHY we should list at Nasdaq?' - I think TRX should now accelerate its growth to reach 100M revenue by 2026. Organic growth at 20% is difficult as they start hitting 50M revenue, so they have to buy growth for which the cheap capital could come from Nasdaq listing (US values this more than AIM, provided TRX can prove that they can grow for next 3-5 years). The other alternative is PE buy out, as this will be perfect for them to buy now and IPO again 2024/2025.
First reaction to it - All in line with expectations, bonus is that all the sectors are growing at 20% and now allograft division can also pull in revenue from this year.
Interesting to see change of advisor also pairing with the fact that we were Q4 EBDTA positive, so by Q3 2023 we will be 1 FY EBDTA positive, is this the indication of where we will be heading, a Nasdaq listing? It makes perfect sense to me - Its healthcare (defensive sector- flavour for next 18 months), EBDTA positive (only place IIs want to invest now) and bonus is its growing (so it will come out well from this slow growth phase in US)!! To me, nothing more perfect for NASDAQ listing later this year. Raise serious cash to fuel serious growth.
I expected it be on 26th so a bit surprised but thinking it will be more because of positive reasons to delay than anything. We should be approaching fcf nutral position so may be that is the reason or there is a deal in the making, not wise for me to speculate, so willl wait patiently.
Very interesting research @L3Trader.. My calculations put cash burn at 50k/month for 2022-H1, and FCF nutral by Q1-2023, if not by H2-2022. A re-rate to 3x sales will be due in the Q1-2023.
what do you recon is the monthly cash burn for 2022-H1 and 2021-H2? Do you think it is not sustainable till the company becomes FCF nutral?
Firstly.. The results are as expected.. good progress and on track to breakeven by 2022.
On the potential TO offer - Richard, that was my logic all along, as I have written previously, the IIs will not sell it cheap, they will extract the true value from the buyer but I have recently understood that they can make complex deals like rolling in with the buyer and taking private shares and all that so I am no longer trusting them to ask the true value.
I hope, for once, the city is fair and let this gem of a company to thrive in the public setting as it is.
Thanks Richard... I share your assessment of the current position of TRX but I fear that the prospect of this company reaching many multiples of current value is too lucrative for IIs to take this private rather than leave it on AIM. My pondering was more on how much we will be offered if it happens before September 2022.
With interesting moves being made on the ownership front.. I am starting to wonder what is the current true valuation of TRX.... will it be 5X sales or 3x sales current sales? Also, will it be based on this year sales or based on previous years revenue?? Any thoughts from fellow PIs will be appreciated. Ta
Also, I will not belive the time and date stamp on this.. it is out when they want it to be out... again it need not be a 'buy'.. seeing this with other trades.. they are lining the ducks before 1) making an offer to take private 2) Welcoming a new II 3) Something else... we shall see.........
Interesting events... I will not see this 1M in isolation.. Since the Annual report (which was publised way earlier than past years) things have been very interesting... Share price has been kept low to get 10-15% of the stock 'Moved', while stifel financial corp visits the site....Not sure what is happning but with good numbers reported and company about to break even soon.. this has to be good.
Washerupper... Is there anything we will hear soon that you already know? I ask because we see around 5% of stock possibly moving hands today, which if Richard is the buyer of, will make them 15% each... I find this very strange that you open the account to say this and we might see this unfold!! Apologies if I have gone wild with speculation but I have seen this happen before.
Having said all that, there is nothing I can do here, if all the big boys roll in and take this private and pay us PIs 0.7p/share, there is nothing we can do about it. I will not be happy about it but what can I do hey!!