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With interesting moves being made on the ownership front.. I am starting to wonder what is the current true valuation of TRX.... will it be 5X sales or 3x sales current sales? Also, will it be based on this year sales or based on previous years revenue?? Any thoughts from fellow PIs will be appreciated. Ta

Also, I will not belive the time and date stamp on this.. it is out when they want it to be out... again it need not be a 'buy'.. seeing this with other trades.. they are lining the ducks before 1) making an offer to take private 2) Welcoming a new II 3) Something else... we shall see.........

Its still here G&M:

14-Jul-22 16:51:35 0.45 253,701,093 Buy* 0.44 0.46 1m

Interesting events... I will not see this 1M in isolation.. Since the Annual report (which was publised way earlier than past years) things have been very interesting... Share price has been kept low to get 10-15% of the stock 'Moved', while stifel financial corp visits the site....Not sure what is happning but with good numbers reported and company about to break even soon.. this has to be good.

Washerupper... Is there anything we will hear soon that you already know? I ask because we see around 5% of stock possibly moving hands today, which if Richard is the buyer of, will make them 15% each... I find this very strange that you open the account to say this and we might see this unfold!! Apologies if I have gone wild with speculation but I have seen this happen before.

Having said all that, there is nothing I can do here, if all the big boys roll in and take this private and pay us PIs 0.7p/share, there is nothing we can do about it. I will not be happy about it but what can I do hey!!

Just so we both are on the same page, how much do you expect to be paid if it is taken private by end of 2022? Ta

Why you hope you will be wrong? Taking private will not be cheap, they will have to pay us a good premium to sell our shares, so not worried if that comes to pass.

How can this be correct?
05-May-22 12:15:17 110.60 1,450,000 Unknown* 113.80 114.00 2m

Should the average share price not be 137.9p instead of 110.6p printed above?

Just curious and puzzled!

So the big question is why now? Mr.....

Boonco,

My point is made by reading the SEP 21 statement in conjunction with March update and not reading them individually. RCC is the only disease group advance enough in September to give positive signals to warrant spending resources to plan for a phase 3 study.

I cannot see a balanced argument from you, which is a shame, when you say this ''Also, the quote you highlight from the September ’21 half year report rns makes no mention of rcc. You can speculate they might be referring to rcc but again it’s just that, speculation."

On one hand you acknowledge that they are working towards a phase 3 in oncology but it being in RCC is a speculation and then go on to argue that the talk of phase 3 in oncology itself is a speculation.

My whole point of starting this thread was to highlight the data from 4D and the message they have given us so far with regards to oncology trials. If we are confident of the science and believe the drug has a market and need for patients, we don't have to worry about short term price movements. At least this is what I practice. Speculation will not help me, I am invested in the science and the company and believe it to progress towards approval. If anything materially changes with the science, I will reconsider my investment not because of the short term price movements or potential take over bids.

Boonco, it was in the RNS update and further reiterated during the conference call.. yes, not in the Final results.

But the point does not change.. They were working on it at least from September.. and still actively pursuing it... They need not have to tell us in September or in March but they did inform us. I read that as them getting positive signals from Merck and FDA.

Sorry, for saying that but it undermines the message the company is delivering. We have been told in the Sep-21 update that:

''The main focus of our work in oncology at this time is the preparation of a pivotal development program for MRx0518 in an oncologic indication.''

and reatirated in April annual report that a Phase 3 in RCC is being developed to include primary ICI patients as well.

So, now take these two things, keeping in view that they have been working on it for 8 months now, each one of us can draw our own conclusions by reading official FDA guidance on the timing of the phase-3.

I will ask for eg:

1) What classification refractory patients will fall in to?
2) What classification primary ICI resistant patients will fall in to?
3) What endpoints and in how many patients we must show clinical benefit?
4) What will Merck gain from if they get this approved for sales mid-way during phase 3?

We don't need to speculate now.. We know things are progressing well.

If big chunks are from SO, then who is 10K seller?? There has been a 10% volume from 10K trades for some days now, I thought it was SO. These big chunks are non price forming trades... more likely shorts closing than SO selling as we haven't seen them during his climb down from 11% to 4.5% holding.. but can't be sure. Well, In any case, them closing shorts/SO selling up now is good!!

But it has taught me many things. The old man Buffet is so true when he advised to only buy the company that one can understand. There were times I was worried when we kept drifting and the data read outs were delayed, making you think if it was a failure. But, knowing the field and how trials are set-up, was the only thing that helped me reason to hold on to it. The data on RCC has rested my worries and as 4D has slipped in the Nov/Dec update and now confirmed, they were working on phase 3 in RCC at least from last Oct/Nov, this will be extended to primary resistant group, this will be BIG!!! Even 5% response in primary ICI resistant group is a step change in cancer care!

Now, I just need to step away and see it unfold and only focus on the data, the rest will follow.

As we are on the subject of mucky city deals.. Just curious if anyone else thinks the today's trading has been 'managed' to let the shorts out? I think yesterday's 125K and today's 250K, 3x 149997, and 411997 (1.5M in total) trades are shorts closing. They are either negotiated prices or OFF exchange traded based on the closing UT trade price. It appears that always know when to close their positions.. well let's see what happens tomorrow!

We are waiting for the good work to reflect in the SP.. The big boys are in it for at least 2025 and expect the company to establish in the market as a mid-level player by then... In my eyes that will be a $50-$75M revenue generating company. Long before that we will have new IIs taking positions to be part of next stage of growth, that should re-rate the stock.

Agree with Richard, one of my reasons to be part of this company is the strong regulation barrier for a new company to enter the market. Only big players can do it but as our CEO said, they prefer to work with finished products and distance themselves from anything to do with handing human tissue. That puts TRX in a very strong position for future valuations.

@Chris - Clinical trials are very complex and must be designed properly to have power to predict the responses beyond reasonable doubt. One complexity with microbiome drugs is that we don't know what the gut-microbiome composition of these patients was prior to 518 or before prior lines of ICI.. so, when we see response to 518, there is always one factor that has not been covered with enough power, which is that somehow the trail has biased the selection of patients with favourable microbiome for ICI/518 treatment. This is something FDA will ask... This is where 4D must come up with power calculations to arrive at a target number of patients for phase 3, that will cover this factor. If we then see 20% response in that cohort of 120-180 patients, then this can be extrapolated, with certain degree of error, to all the RCC refractory patients.

How do you think Merck and 4D will arrive at a valuation for 518? They can't pluck the number from thin air, right? You make estimations of in how many patients it will work and how much revenue it will add per year and do that 5/6/7/8/10 year period and a proportion of that total sales revenue will be offered now to sell the drug.. If it will add $10bn, we will be offered $1bn..

$7.5m will just cover costs for 3 months max... gives us time to raise money when we have achieved the right valuation.. As I said, Phase 3 approved for RCC with an indication from FDA that if mid-trial certain thresholds are met, they will consider approval for emergency use will push the valuation north of $700m.. this could happen in H2, we can raise money then for a phase3, Asthma and Parkinson's trials. Or as we would have de risked the drug by now, a mix of raise and parter sponsored trails..

I stopped thinking about him the moment the RNS landed however, 4D needs to move on now... we need funding guys and that to big time.. When I know that any buy-out will only happen if we show results in phase-3 with at least 20% of Clinical benefit and when that happens it will be north of $1bn (just for 518).. I am happy with a diluted $400 valuation and $150m in the bank now! BUT we can't have this fund around our neck any longer...

Just to clarify, Phase-3 in RCC

In all probability, he has around 100-200K left..IMO. Let's see where we will stabilise in the next week/ two... I hope we will turn a corner now with IIs and aquire a good set on the book.

4D has been working on a phase 3 application from late last year, IMO, so hoping we will see that come through soon.