Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
One of the reasons company is at this low valuation is quick expansion in the last...I would want this to be steady until the company sees enough orders to convince the shareholders that return on extra capital investments will be guaranteed in the near term.
Will have to see.. but there is still JD to show their hand
I know Chinese very well, they will never pay the fair price for anything, very stubborn when negotiating. They were in discussions with Currys from last year as reported by BBC and I guess were dragging their feet hence the Elliot offer to out them. If JD don't offer, there is chance for this could go private. Makes sense as a strategy, specially when JD missed on buying German retailor, if Currys also goes, they will loose the battle with Alibaba and Temu. Having said that, I don't expect anything over 80p, the final offer could be around 77p.
It seems that way.... first time they have released a ''Form 8 (OPD) - Currys plc'' after Form 8 (OPD) from JD.com the day before... News should be out over the weekend I would guess!!
I agree, the downward sentiment is persistant, with measures to curtail ads,
https://news.sky.com/story/vape-ads-on-social-media-need-to-stop-as-regulator-announces-crackdown-13083389
However, when all this passes and there is some clarity on the damage, this share should bounce back. Will have to wait till annual results to understand how much revenue and profit is lost and the plans to recover and growth.
Yes will load up more when it drops below £1.
Its the future that is important not the past and present.. They could not give any clarity on this, so this will drop and discount for the unceternity.. so PE at 11x, at earnings of £26m (after tax) for FY25, 283m marcket cap is sensible (for UK markets, which are always looking bearish for no good reason!!)
Or clarity on the price to be offered...someone deffo god wind of it.. but there are player in the market to moderate the price.. they will just open a short position and cover this rasie!!
Not expected this to be implemented... I don't think the industry was expecting this as well.. Sandy did say it is not expcted with NHS distributing milliions of vaps on one hand and taxing them on the other...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-cut-national-insurance-income-tax-inheritance-stamp-duty-k9tx63rfq
Just one more on JD...
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-currys-buyout-chinas-jd-111920300.html
Why currys is fit for JD and potential reason for Currys trading higer than the 62p offer price..
https://retailtimes.co.uk/kantar-currys-may-not-be-the-only-retailer-in-jds-sights-as-chinese-e-commerce-giant-confirms-interest-in-bid/
A t/o at very very low price or more worryingly, it will be pushed into the admin and then bought off cheaply... you can't have a shareholder at over 30% holding and this happens without their knowledge.. more likely, it is happing for them... they get their loan back, get someone else do the dirty deeds of pushing this in to admin, and pick it off....wow, but sadly seen it all before.... I hope this never happnes and we recover... this drug is very good and a saver for many pateints, so if done well even from here, we will recover to see profits and shareholder value restored
Wow... I wonder if they have reduced the revenue/prescription realised in H12023 to help fudge the figures... you increase one number and decrease the other... and then say we will increase the revenue per prescription later.... Just letting the CFO go will not be enough. I am worried now how will the biggest shareholders will react to this!!!
Looks like JD were sniffing at it for few months now, and timing of the Elliot bid and news release could be to extract more value from JD:
"The BBC understands that conversations with JD.com on a possible transaction started towards the end of last year as the Chinese firm looked at options to expand internationally because of weaker demand in its home market. "
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68335829
Interesting analysis on JD's positino and need to buy Currys:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/20/currys-fate-shows-future-shopping-is-chinese/
Doesn't really answer my question, even when all this transpires, the company is still reasonably priced. Cash generated now and next year funding M&A in Nutrition to recover some of the lost revenue should be in place by 2024, if this doesn't happen then, yes I will start feeling down beat about this business but until then, it has huge potential as a strong recovery play.
Btw, 16M investment every year for Elf bar is based on the scale of the opportunity, when that shrinks, the investment will also be scaled back. It's not good business not to scale back and I don't think Sandy is too naive.
Bangrak, I understand your logic for loss of earnings from the vaping division, but I am not understanding your reasoning for this down bead narrative.
Going by your assumptions on vaping, which I broadly agree with, there will be around 85% loss of earnings for FY2025 in vaping division, which based on HY2023 figures (I am taking these as this figure will be closer to the median as FY2023 figures will be boosted by the elf bar deal which I consider as a blip, more on this below) will mean gross profit coming down from 34.4M to 5.4M. Assuming all other divisions to remain the same and pull in the same revenue, we are looking at 26.3M gross profit, 12M net profit, and 9M net profit after tax for FY2025. On current valuation, this will give SUP a forward PE multiple of 16.7x for 2025, which is comparable to industry average of 15.5x – Current PE is 6x.
I don’t think it will be hard for people to understand why Elf bar were so keen to increase their distribution in UK and what was the logic of SUP to bid for it. They just want to sell as much of it as possible before the ban hits, as we can already see, this will result in surge in cash generation, which will continue for the next year as well. So, by the time the above scenario materialises the company will be cash rich, which as we can already see it wants to deploy in M&A for the nutrition division and drive growth.
This will be one of the better times to be in the nutrition business, the next in line to be standardised is the ultra-processed food industry and all the sweets and fat selling guys, which is leading to high obesity in children/adults. A brand with high protein food will do well and retail space is available for SUP to capture. With cash and operational leverage (they already have retail clients and all the infrastructure) the probability of success is high, hence for me the future is good for SUP.
Just going by fundamentals, under current market conditions, a cash generating profitable business should be valued more than the market average multiples. Only thing that was stopping big money to invest was the uncertainty around the legislation, with that cleared and all the factors and timelines clear, that money is moving in, SUP has only bought 75,000 shares, rest is being purchased by someone else!
Keen to hear your thoughts.
I don't think it can be taken out by a hostile bid... ~60% of the stock is with IIs.. unless they decide to take this private this will not happen. Even then, the BOD has a duty to get a fair valuation for all the share holders, so for them to recommend an offer, it has to be at least 90-100% premium to current price. I feel, even that will be a steal as 3x revenue multiples (at which we should be trading currently) will be over £1 and companies like this will go for 5x multiples, that will be £1.7/ share. What we will not get is the exponential growth of value from there, all the hard work is done with us taking 40% risk, but rest of the 5x -10x value growth will be creamed off by the IIs.
This share has never been a share for quick trading... you have to go back to 2020 when the major placing happened to understand who owns and controls this company. Big IIs had a 5 year view and I can see it is shaping up to that target. I don't know what IIs targets are but the company is on track to achieve 4-5 years of 20% YoY growth with $4-5 M/year cash generation by end of 2025. I am expecting capacity expansion by end of this year or H1 2025 when it will be projected to exceed 40M revenue. All of this should translate in to shareholder value at some stage, either by a TO deal or by moving on to Nasdaq when the time is right.