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Very much looking forward to next Tuesday's H1 results and outlook given all the upgrades and now the huge ExpressVPN acquisition.

Also, KAPE are presenting on 21st September after the results at a Progressive Research event - free to register:

Https://www.progressive-research.com/

Https://www.rea.co.uk/websites/reaholdingsplc/English/2450/cpo-price.html

Also, REA Holdings reported H1 results last week, and commented:

"With CPO and CPKO prices expected to remain at remunerative levels, the group looks forward to a period of prosperity"

Moving up once again, on no trades declared as yet, so probably another larger buy will once again be reported later.

At the current 19.5p, the P/E for the year starting in only four months is only 12.8, which in itself is pretty cheap.

The PEG for the company is also just 0.75 based on the 17% growth forecast from this year to next. This is of course the measure most favoured by Jim Slater. Any company trading on a PEG of less than 1 is seen to be good value, so a value of 0.75 is extremely good value.

That's an unusually large Buy of 20,000 shares at the full 85p offer this afternoon....

Interesting points from Shore Capital's new note today:

- with 28% earnings accretion, KAPE are forecast to make 40.6c EPS next year assuming the acquisition completes before 31st December, rising to 46.5c after that
- the resulting P/E of 13.6 for 2022 at 400p is extremely cheap for the sector
- ExpressVPN have 93% recurring revenues
- founders will own 14% of KAPE post-acquisition
- ExpressVPN is highly cash-generative, with expected cash conversion over 85%
- it has users in 180+ countries
- it has an 82% subscriber retention rate (very similar to KAPE's)
- it has extensive relationships with the likes of Acer, HP, Nokia and Philips whereby it's pre-installed on those brands' hardware. KAPE will likely leverage this for Cyberghost and PIA etc.

Looking great - apparently the push was initiated by a tip from IC columnist John Rosier, who's just bought CNIC into one of his portfolios.

Remember that the target rpices from Berenberg and Stifel are still more than double the current share price, even after this rise.

A series of small buys, and now the share price has broken out to new 18-month highs.

Interesting :o))

This is a decent read too:

https://www.facebook.com/cromavigilant

Lovely to see this today....

"The Board is very confident that trading for the year ending 31 December 2021 will be comfortably ahead of already upgraded management expectations"

Interesting to see that EKF are opening new facilities in relation to COVID testing kits "with the expectation that sales of these products will continue for the foreseeable future", and that "we are now discussing the supply of products for non-COVID-19 indications" resulting from the success of the COVID test kits.

Plus encouraging to hear that the core business "is capable of generating significant double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA over the next three to four years".

A very strong set of H1 results today, remembering that this is the much seasonally weaker half so H2 will look even better.

ACSO reiterate that:

"we expect Cash EBITDA to be significantly ahead of market expectations for both the half and the full year"

The Balance Sheet is strong with $33m net cash. Virtual queueing is the future for all sectors across the globe given the pandemic - you just have to rad the narrative to see that this is the case. Prospects look very good here.

The placing is indeed at 337.5p, and was "multiple times oversubscribed".

KAPE's directors have subscribed a whopping additional $13m in the placing, and the founders of Express VPN have put in another $4m.....plus major shareholder Unkmind put in another $15m.

Full steam ahead methinks.

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-round-up-featuring-fonix-mobile-winkworth-national-world/?mc_cid=854ac934f6&mc_eid=db9f9bbaf2

"Fonix Mobile (LON:FNX) – masses of potential for this year and beyond

On Thursday of next week, this group will be declaring its full year results to the end of June. We already know that that they will show a good advance on the previous year’s figures.

However, what I am looking for is a good Trading Update with the finals, pointing to a continuation of the first half performance and prompting, I hope, an upgrading in broker’s estimates for this current year.

Fonix, which was set up in 2006, provides mobile payments and messaging services for its multitude of clients across the entertainment, telecoms, media, enterprise and commerce sectors.

Based in London, it is a fast growth business which is driven by blue chip clients such as BT, Global Radio, ITV, Bauer Media, Comic Relief and Children in Need to name just a few.

When consumers make payments, they are charged to their mobile phone bill. This service can be used for donations, cash deposits, content and ticketing.

The company’s service works by charging digital payments to the mobile phone bill, either via Carrier Billing or SMS Billing. The group also offers messaging solutions.

Revenues last year will have risen from £40.1m to around £45.1m, while adjusted pre-tax profits are estimated to have increased from £7.3m to £8.4m, with earnings up to 6.9p (6.1p), and a 5.2p dividend per share.

The end July Trading Update reported strong earnings growth and expansion into international markets.

It also noted that “With high levels of repeating revenue, a strong exit run-rate for FY21, new supplier connections in international markets and a growing pipeline of client prospects across all sectors, the Board continues to be confident in the growth potential for Fonix going into FY22 and beyond.”

In late April this year the group’s shares hit 190p at one stage, before falling back to 123p on the day that the Trading Update was announced. Since then, they have been up to 170p, before easing back to 161.5p last Friday night.

At that level I rate the shares as offering a very good upside, with that 190p mark being an early price objective.

By the way, I note that the company’s brokers, finnCap, have a 200p price earmark.

Let us hope that next week’s results statement will provide the fillip to get the shares running back up again."

Wow :o))

I did expect an acquisition, but didn't expect it to be for $936m.....this takes KAPE into a different league.

"Highly earnings enhancing" too.

And a MINIMUM price of 337.5p for the fundraising is excellent news.

The share price could rise sharply from here as the full impact sinks in.

Here's a nice SCSW tweet about the deal btw:

Https://twitter.com/SCSWSharewatch/status/1437459372590960641

"After hours #KAPE , buying ExpressVPN in part funded by placing at 337.5p, doubles user base to 6m. Huge synergies from consolidating servers and duplicated costs est at US$30m. Almost 30pc eps accretive.Been a great one for GP3 which holds from 93.5p"

Techinvest's new issue is out, so it's probably OK to post part of their review of CNIC from the prior August issue in their Trader Portfolio update:

"Among holdings in the Portfolio, CentralNic was one of the better performers in July. The share price picked up late in the month after the company announced that it expects to report revenue of around US$174m and adjusted EBITDA of US$20m for the first half of 2021, reflecting growth across all business lines. This represents a 56% and 32% increase respectively over the same period last year. Much of the growth was contributed by acquisitions, though encouragingly organic growth was 16% in the first quarter and 25% in the second quarter. CentralNic now expects to deliver revenue for the year well ahead of market expectations with profits comfortably in line.

Consenus broker forecast for the current year is adjusted pre-tax profit of £17.2m and earnings per share of 7.26p, giving a modest prospective P/E of 13.4.

We feel that having made several significant acquisitions to build scale, CentralNic is now in a strong position to deliver strong, multi-year profit growth."

Techinvest's new issue is out, so it's probably OK to post part of their review of KAPE from the prior August issue. Here's their conclusion FYI:

"Kape looks to have made a strong start to 2021 and encouragingly the company has reported that a growing number of customers are choosing to take more than one of its products. We feel that the Webselenese acquisition has the considerable potential to drive revenues and add new customers as it becomes fully integrated in the group.

For the current year, consensus broker forecast is for earnings per share of 26p, rising to 32.1p in fiscal 2022. On a prospective P/E of 9.9 for next year, the shares look good value. Strong hold."

WH Ireland have today raised their fair value to 115p (from 100p). They now see
3.5p EPS rising to 5.5p EPS next year, and £1m EBITDA rising to £1.3m next year. They summarise:

"Interims illustrate continuing momentum – FY 2021E forecasts raised

Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has released interim results to 30 June 2021, which illustrate positive momentum across the business. In the six-month period, revenue was 8.9% lower as expected but the meaningful 640bps increase in the gross margin reflected the growth in recurring software income, while a tight control on costs remained.

Looking ahead, the order book is reported to presently stand at £836k and despite the well-flagged wider supply chain challenges, the Board now expects results for the year to 31 December 2021 to be ahead of current market expectations. As such, we now look for FY 2021E PAT of £250k (previously £100k), while at this stage maintaining our FY 2022E forecasts of £500k for the time being.

Although the shares have performed well, an FY 2021E EV/EBITDA of 5.2x falling to just 4.1x illustrates the potential for multiple expansion and further outperformance. Reflecting the uplift to forecasts, we increase our fair value estimate for the shares to 115p (from 100p), which would equate to a current year EV/EBITDA multiple of c.8x."

From MP Evans' H1 results this morning - I suspect Malaysian COVID restrictions won't be fully ease for some time to come given Delta etc, which should continue to be good for CPO prices:

"As indicated above, CPO prices remained strong in the first two months of the second half of 2021, and given the continued strength evident in the forward markets, the full-year average cif Rotterdam price is likely to be at a multi-year high. Looking into 2022, much depends on the extent to which production in Malaysia recovers if and when foreign labour restrictions are relaxed as Covid-19 is brought under control."

Encouraging to see the published offer price up to 106p this morning. Perhaps stock is becoming scarcer.

Also interesting to note Friday's late RNS that Erin Finance were able to find buyers for 4.25m shares at between 103p-105p seemingly pretty easily, and that their remaining stock is now held for the long-term.

Great to see from this news that CNIC have roared into fourth place for global new .com registrations.....

https://domainnamewire.com/2021/09/08/whos-on-top-com-leaderboard-update/

And Master Investor are very keen on CNIC:

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-featuring-centralnic-costain-and-mccolls/

"CentralNic Group (LON:CNIC) – Dollars and cents keep rolling in

This company really is a little money machine. It enjoys a staggering 99% ARR, which really helps to underpin its forward growth strategy.

On Tuesday of this week, the global internet platform company declared its interim results for the six months to end June this year.

They showed revenues up 57% from $111.3m to $174.7m and its EBITDA was 36% better at $20.5m ($15.1m).

The group reckons that the full year results will come in at the higher end of market expectations.

Analyst Bob Liao at the group’s brokers Zeus Capital estimates that revenues will be $355.1m ($241.2m), while EBITDA could rise from $30.6m to $41.4m, worth 10.4c per share in earnings.

The Q3 results will be announced in November, which is when further profit upgrades could be made.

In the meantime, I do see that group’s shares, now 102p, edging gently higher towards my price objective."

Liberum have today raised their target price to 520p:

"BUY, TP raised to 520p from 510p

On our revised estimates, Wincanton trades on a March 2022E P/E of 11.0x and EV/EBITDA of 7.0x (pension adjusted, using the NPV of deficit repayments). We see this as wholly undervaluing a group delivering medium-term double-digit underlying EPS growth (masked by an increase in the tax rate this year), providing crucial supply chain services to mainly blue-chip customers, with strong and growing exposure to structurally high growth customer sectors. We raises our DCF-based target price to 520p from 510p on higher forecasts. Our recommendation remains BUY."

"Reinforcing Wincanton’s Digital and eFulfilment offeringWe see this as an attractive deal. Cygnia has a strong client base with mid-market retailers and health & beauty brands, including BrewDog, Moonpig, Molton Brown, Revolution Beauty, Whittard of Chelsea and Feelunique. It operates out of four sites in the UK, using a shared user warehouse model. Its services include the full range of online fulfilment activities, along with returns and parcel carrier management. The acquisition is consistent with Wincanton’s strategy of pivoting to faster growing activities within contract logistics. Digital and eFulfilment is the smallest but fastest growing of the group’s customer segments. The acquisition of Cygnia should reinforce Wincanton’s offering in this area. In particular, the mid-market exposure should complement Wincanton’s current strength with larger customers. Having a mix of larger and smaller customers provides good options to fill multi-user sites and accommodate customer growth, including the recently-opened Rockingham site."

H1 results are out, and as a poster has commented elsewhere...

"Wowee, look at the comments on OEM8. Demand has “greatly exceeded expectations” leading to “higher volumes for SCE”.....”significantly higher capacity commitments”.

OEM8 was already an enormous contract (£27.5m) and down for £8m per annum once up and running. How much bigger might “greatly exceeded” be ???? ( all subject to contract !!).

It all fits together now with that last RNS: SCE expecting to fill the factory by 2024 a year early. If ( big if, or getting a much smaller if) they get to £75m revenue in just three years time........wowee !!"

"no wonder the last RNS talking of a need to streamline production, and bring it on stream faster. We now know a bit more of why."

I also like "Good progress on both commercial discussions and ongoing successful product testing with several other new and existing customers". And SCW are "working on a significant number of unannounced projects".

Schedules in the short term for the OEM8 model may slip a little - and OEM9 has delayed SOP by a year - but this is hugely outweighed by "the customer's (OEM8's) higher than originally forecast order book".

Hopefully lots more news flow still to come this year.