Very bullish new article on Master Investor:pt 223 Oct 2021 08:40
"Core corporate strategy
Its core growth strategy is identifying and acquiring cash-generative businesses in its industry with annuity revenue streams and exposure to growth markets and migrating them onto the CentralNic software and operating platforms.
It has been acting as somewhat of a global consolidator, through seeking out and making acquisitions in a highly fragmented market.
Its market
It operates within a staggering $30bn market, that for online presence services, which gives the group a massive space into which it can expand.
A very tight equity
The group has some 251m shares in issue.
Large holders include Kestrel Investment Partners (22.6%), Inter. Services (14.8%), Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (France) (8.23%), JTC (7.71%), Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management (6.10%), Chelverton Asset Management (5.81%), Schroder Investment Management (5.43%), Herald Investment Management (3.81%) and BlackRock Investment Management (3.20%).
Erin Invest & Finance, which is a director’s holding holds 6.29%, while other directors have another 3%.
Q3 Trading Update
The group’s organic growth has further accelerated during the nine months to 30 September 2021, following its significant investment programme, resulting in organic growth of 29% against the same period in the prior year.
The Q3 statement indicated that the company expects to report revenue of at least $280m and adjusted EBITDA of at least $32m for the nine months ending 30 September. This represents an increase of at least 66% and 45% respectively over the $168.5m and $22.1m results reported for the same period last year.
Cash as at 30 September increased to $54m from $28.7m as at 31 December 2020. Net debt as at 30 September decreased to $79m from $85m as at 31 December, despite the deployment during the period of a total of some $13m on the acquisitions in the period.
The group’s CEO, Ben Crawford, stated that: “CentralNic’s growth rally has further accelerated during the third quarter of the year with year-to-date organic growth now reaching a record 29%. The company expects to trade comfortably at or above the upper end of market expectations for the year for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We are particularly pleased that the accelerated growth is now also starting to translate into higher profits.”
Broker’s View
Analyst expectations of revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the 2021 financial year range from £348.6m to $355.3m and $41.1m to $42.0m respectively.
Bob Liao, an analyst at Zeus Capital, the group’s NOMAD and broker, bullishly states that “We see an increasingly strong profit growth profile for CentralNic. The Online Marketing division continues to take market share, the Direct and Indirect divisions are accelerating growth through investment and (in the) longer term, we expect to see operating leverage as the company elevated investment levels plateau. We believe this outlook is not reflected in CentralNic’s earnings multi