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Here's Singer's new note dated 7th June - they now have a Buy recommendation, having previously been Under Review

They forecast 15.8p EPS this year, rising to 20.2p EPS next year (with 1.4p and 1.6p dividends and a £6.0m and £8.7m cash pile excl. IFRS 16 leases respectively):

"Shares rebased to attractive level

Eneraqua’s share price has rebased after the forecast downgrades at the May FY23 results. FY24 will be a reset year, with earnings reducing. However, many of the Group’s structural growth drivers are still intact and the growth story is expected to resume in FY25 (we forecast EPS growth of 28%).

Our new forecasts are supported by the order book, with 90%/47% visibility over our FY24/FY25 revenue forecasts. There is a project pipeline of £425m beyond this. Post the results, the shares now trade on a Jan. ’24 EV/EBITDA rating of 4.8x, falling to 3.6x or a P/E rating of 9.2x, falling to 7.2x. Whilst confidence needs to rebuild, we believe the shares should attract a higher rating over time, reflecting an attractive margin profile and long term growth outlook.

We target an EV/EBITDA rating of 9.2x, which drives a target price of 249p (15.8x implied P/E). This supports our Buy recommendation.

Forecasts rebased to prudent level

Post the 23rd May results, we rebased our FY24 adj. PBT forecast by 42% to reflect a reprioritising of projects in favour of typically lower margin, lower cost per unit projects. We believe forecasts are now pitched prudently. Our new forecasts are supported by a record order book and a strong pipeline. The order book provides visibility over 90%/47% of our FY24/FY25 revenue forecasts. There is a project pipeline of £425m beyond this, of which 38% is expected to be completed in FY25 so there is c.£162m of business to go after. This implies a required success rate of 34% to hit our revenue forecast vs. an historic tender win rate of greater than 50%. We consider this to be a conservative position. Management also indicates that the order book is supportive of an improving margin profile.

Long term growth outlook still intact

Eneraqua’s principal activity is the provision of turnkey retrofit district or communal heating and hot water systems, replacing end of life systems in multiple occupancy buildings (primarily social housing). It also delivers water efficiency upgrades for utilities/commercial customers. The long term growth outlook for Eneraqua’s services is underpinned by the need to improve energy efficiency, to reduce domestic energy costs and therefore reduce fuel poverty. These growth drivers remain unchanged and we expect earnings growth to resume in FY25, forecasting EPS growth of 28%."

CAPD's investment in Leo Lithium was up another 4% overnight to new highs on a "Significant Resource Upgrade" at its Goulamina mine.

CAPD and MSA Labs also get mentions in the narrative for drilling and lab services provided:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02677562-6A1154672?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

The Small Caps Live Weekly Summary sent out this weekend by ds2 included a useful summary of the new contract:

Https://smallcapslife.substack.com/p/small-caps-live-weekly-summary-1a6?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=302785&post_id=128709446&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

"Capital Limited (CAPD.L) - New Contract Award & Finance Update

…new mining services contract…Earth moving & crushing services for Ivindo Iron SA, majority owned by Fortescue Metals Group ("Fortescue"), at the Ivindo Iron Ore Project ("Ivindo") in Gabon…The contract has a term of up to 5 years and will generate approximately $30 million of revenue per annum once fully operational.

This is a nice contract to win. It is with an existing customer, and they have mobilised initial equipment already, which suggests they knew it was coming when they won the drilling side, and just had to agree on terms. But most importantly, the remaining $15m capex is funded from debt, not equity.

Perhaps the most interesting maths is the ROCE. The capex is $30m for $30m of revenue. Our guesstimate is that their mining contracts tend to have mid-30's GM, so let’s say $10m incremental GP. Some additional admin costs but not too many since they presumably already have facilities on site to support the drilling side. So say $8m incremental EBIT. 27% ROCE, well above their 10% incremental cost of capital (which is the cost of debt). The complicating factor is that this is only a 5yr contract, so although these tend to get extended, 5yrs of $8m EBIT = $40m doesn't compare particularly favourably to the $30m spent today. Although this looks a lot better if they are using $15m worth of existing equipment, and in reality, the equipment should last longer than 5 years in most cases. Plus, the synergies with the drilling side, getting in on the ground with a potential world-class mine, and the diversification of another mineral all make this a good contract win.

We don't think I'm going to suddenly fall in love with the mining side of the business, given how good the drilling and MSALABS businesses are. However, the economics of this contract are reasonable, with the potential to be very good if it allows them to add more fleet/rigs in future.

There were some small broker Price Target upgrades in response to this news. Berenberg from 166p to 170p, Canaccord to 150p and Stifel to 180p. Tamesis just re-iterate their old 160p Price Target but add $27m revenue, $11.6m to EBITDA & $12.4m to FCF in 2024. Here are the old figures (me - sorry, don't know how to post the tables!):

And now, post-contract win:

This is a decent upgrade, potentially making the 5% share price rise on the day an under-reaction to this news."

I understand that the writer of the Buy tip above has a 150p target.

The article is on "Share Prophets" web site (which is asterisked out!).

as an aside, leo lithium continued to rise last night, up another 10% to new highs of a$1.05. capd's holding in this alone is now worth almost £6m.

anyway, capd were tipped as a buy on ************* at some point yesterday fyi (but subscriber only):

https://*************.com/views/68881/capital-limited-new-contract-and-increased-bank-facility-buy

"capital limited – new contract and increased bank facility, buy

by hotstockrockets | thursday 15 june 2023"

Here's a link to Allenby's latest note FYI:

Https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/20230517-MTI-Wireless-Edge-Ltd-MWE.L-Allenby-Capital-Q1-update-1.pdf?c3638=on

Extracts:

"Q1: Solid start to FY23, growth drivers in all divisions

Solid Q1 performance from MTI Wireless Edge Ltd (MWE.L), the technology group

focused on comprehensive communication and radio frequency solutions across

multiple sectors. Revenue increased 1% to $11.3m and PBT by 15% to $1.1m, reflecting an improvement in gross margin, FX tailwinds and higher interest received. Net cash strong at $8.5m (Q1 FY22: $6.5m) but this did benefit from the FY dividend ($2.5m) being paid in April and March in FY22. On a divisional basis, all were profitable and there was revenue growth in Antennas and Water Solutions (Mottech) while Distribution (MTI Summit) was relatively quiet. The outlook for FY23 remains positive here as design wins move through to production. Medium term demand drivers for each division remain intact and we anticipate further growth at the top and bottom line. P&L forecasts and 90p/share fair value, equivalent to an FY24 EV/EBITDA of 13.0x and a yield of 4.1%, remain unchanged."

"Outlook: Demand for MTI’s comprehensive communication and radio frequency solutions across each division remains good with the ongoing challenge of water scarcity, the embrace of 5G and increased military spending given the global political situation. We expect continued profitable growth and our 90p/share fair value is unchanged."

Gresham have added a further 7m shares and now own 29.55%. Another 0.5% and they'll have to make an offer for the company :o))

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/inspired-INSE/share-news/Inspired-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/91331417

continuing the upward trend since ipo in 2020 and bouncing off the, erm, recent *****uple bottom :o))

Good to see. Hugely undervalued compared to sector comparator JDG and an extremely well run company on its cheapest rating for a long time.

News of MSALabs/Chrysos in Ghana:

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/msalabs_msalabs-photonassay-gold-activity-7070283960043393026-9K1q/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

"MSALABS 3,902 followers

1w •

Our newest laboratory in Obuasi, Ghana is undergoing final preparations for opening, with commissioning of the PhotonAssay unit and training of operators underway. Operations are planned to commence on June 10 and will deliver PhotonAssay services to the Ghanian mining and exploration industries.

PhotonAssay is the groundbreaking technology providing faster, more accurate analysis results and supporting improved definition of reserves and resources and quicker decision making to improve operational efficiencies and profitability.

#MSALABS #PhotonAssay #gold #ghana"

And also gaining accreditation in Canada for PhotonAssay:

Https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7073946094526742528/

"It has been great to see all our friends and colleagues at the Canadian Mining Expo in Timmins, Canada. We have been celebrating our recent PhotonAssay ISO 17025 Testing and Calibration Laboratories accreditation at our Val d’Or laboratory. We are now providing this groundbreaking technology, that delivers faster, more accurate assay results, through our Prince George, Timmins and Val d’Or laboratories across Canada."

Nice plug on Citywire today regarding Berenberg's new Buy rec and target price, which thankfully hammers home the point that CAPD is becoming a "full services mining house". Perhaps the market is finally cottoning on here:

Https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/expert-view-whitbread-croda-onesavings-bank-frasers-and-capital/a2419181

"Capital’s transition to full services miner, says Berenberg

Mineral drilling solutions group Capital (CAPD) is growing its contracts as it continues its transition into a full services mining house, says Berenberg.

Analyst Richard Hatch retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and increased the target price from 166p to 170p on the stock, which was trading up 7.3%, or 7p, at 103p.

It has won a contract from a subsidiary of tier-one Australian miner Fortescue Metals that builds on its existing three-year diamond drilling contract and ‘is a good example of how Capital can grow its presence on a site and add additional services by starting with its core business – drilling’, said Hatch.

‘When we initiated on Capital in 2020, it was predominantly a driller with ambitions to grow and diversify its business,’ he said. ‘Since that point, it has moved into, and now grown, its contract mining business, and also added additional growth through its [mining analysts] Msalabs business, which offers attractive continuing top-line growth.’

The award of the latest contract shows ‘further growth and diversification for Capital’s revenue streams’, added Hatch."

Tican Chilled Foods select Podstar - quite a large global company too:

Https://www.touchstar.co.uk/blog/ticanchilled

Given TST's overseas expansion I wonder if this may lead to further substantial business?

"Tican Chilled are part of the Tönnies Group a family owned company that has its head office in Germany. Tönnies operates a highly diversified international food business and is active around the world with its eight divisions of Meat Pork, Meat Beef, Convenience, Sausages, Ingredients, Logistics, International and Central Services."

"The work that Touchstar has done for Tican has been fantastic. We presented them with some feature requests that they had not encountered before but they came up with viable solutions to ensure the use of Podstar was as simple as possible for all concerned. The proof of delivery system immediately reduced our paper usage by at least 70 per cent. The PODStar mobile app is very easy to use with very minimal driver training on the handhelds required. I have rolled the system out to all my drivers with very minimal disruption to our operation and I would highly recommend the PODStar solution to anyone looking to move away from a paper-based delivery system."

The Allied Gold IPO is going well, and is expected to close on or around July 17th with a $300m fundraise.

CAPD will therefore be able to discuss any upwards revaluation of their shareholding in the 30th June interims, although hopefully there'll be an RNS detailing this around the IPO date. The interims may even include the revaluation in the numbers since the process will be almost complete at that point and will have concluded prior to those numbers being issued:

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allied-gold-corp-limited-allied-145100716.html

"Allied Gold Corp Limited, Allied Merger Corporation and Mondavi Ventures Ltd. Announce Submission of Application for TSX Listing and Provide Update on Business Combination and Financing with Closing Date Set for July 17, 2023

etc"

Berenberg have today raised their target price to 170p:

Https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Capital+Limited+%28CAPD%3ALN%29+PT+Raised+to+GBP1.70+at+Berenberg/21785751.html

And Stifel have also raised their target price to 180p:

Https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Capital+Limited+%28CAPD%3ALN%29+PT+Raised+to+GBP1.80+at+Stifel/21785991.html

I was just re-reading April's issue of Techinvest and noted that MWE's 2022 results were well reviewed and Techinvest's review hadn't been noted here, so here's the conclusion (the share price was then 51.5p):

"MTI is a well-balanced business, with its three divisions all performing well and delivering on their respective growth strategies in fiscal 2022. The company grew in terms of both sales and profits and it is noteworthy that this was delivered despite the ongoing impact of the global chip shortage, which affected key components required in nearly all of the products and solutions sold by MTI.

Management reported that the business is seeing compelling opportunities in all operating segments, with the opening of the Indian market for E-Band 5G backhaul in particular representing a substantial opportunity for MTI over the medium term. The conflict in Ukraine has led directly to a significant increase in defence budgets and that too is likely to have a positive impact on the company's financial performance in the current year and beyond. Around 37% of MTI's sales are defence-related. Continue to buy."

Good to see the share price break upwards over 100p and at new recent highs.

Tamesis have retained their 160p share price target.

They've added $7.5m additional revenues into their forecasts this year, which are now just in the upper range of $320m-$340m revenue guidance at $331m, so still relatively conservative.

They forecast 20.3c EPS this year, i.e 16.2p EPS.

They also see 39.4c operating cash flow per share this year.

They note:

"World Class Project and Operator. The Ivindo Project is one of the world’s largest undeveloped high grade hematite projects. FMG has an 80% interest in the Ivindo Iron JV and has been assessing the project since 2018. FMG note that the geology and iron ore potential is similar in scale as Simandou in its early stages of exploration, with its multi-billion tonne potential and high grades. This is great news for Capital who have effectively been asked by FMG to sort out the drilling, earth moving and crushing. This puts Capital in a key operational position which, in our view, will only become more valuable if Ivindo gets even bigger".

They summarise:

"Financial impact in 2024 and beyond. Our forecasts for 2024 do change clearly. Capital note in their press release that revenues of approximately $30m pa will be generated from the mining service contract once it is fully operational. We estimate at full run rate this could add c. $13.5m pa in gross profits – a material addition over five years given the relatively light $15m of capex required. We model revenues from the new contract starting in H2, ramping up in 2024 and being at full operational capacity in 2025."

The Investment Case

Today’s announcement is another demonstration of the ability for management to secure major contracts and a further diversification of the Company’s revenue stream being a mining services contract on an iron-ore project. At the current price the shares are trading on EV/EBITDA multiples of 2.5x and 2.6x 2023 and 2024, PE ratios of 5.7x and 6.9x. This continues to implies little growth in the business yet these sort of contract wins plus the trajectory of MSALABS with Chrysos (c. $80m+ of revenue by 2025 vs just $3m in 2019) show that the reality of the investment case is completely the opposite. We maintain our price target of 160p."

WH Ireland have retained their 9.5p fair value share price.

They forecast €3.2m PBT this year, rising to €6.0m PBT next year. That's 0.5c EPS rising to 0.9c EPS, or 0.43p EPS rising to 0.78p EPS.

Which is a current year P/E of 8.4 falling to just 4.6 at 3.6p.

They note that "average prices of €953/tonne achieved in May......remain well above our forecast assumptions of €900/tonne".

And "in the 5 years prior to 2021, average prices achieved by DKL were on average ca. €578/tonne".

RNWH went ex-div last Thursday with the 6p interim dividend, so it's encouraging to now see the share price higher at 725p-729p than it was last week taking the divi into account.

Https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/06/11/3-penny-stocks-paying-rising-passive-income/

"Riding the wave of global trade

Near the top of my buy list right now is leading international shipbroker Braemar (LSE: BMS).

A shipbroker acts as a specialist intermediary between shipowners and charterers that need to transport cargo. And Braemar operates across all time zones and major shipping hubs, including Shanghai, Singapore, Mumbai, and Sao Paulo.

As well as chartering though, the firm provides expert advice in investment and risk management. So its offerings are well diversified, making its income less cyclical.

In a trading update back in March, the company announced it had achieved record revenue and profitability for the financial year ended 28 February. The shipbroker expects underlying profit of at least £20m from revenue of £150m.

That would put the stock on a bargain price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of about six. The shares offer a dividend yield of 4.1%. The payout is healthily covered three times by anticipated earnings.

One risk worth considering is that the shipping sector will need decarbonising, which will cost billions. But Braemar also runs a carbon offsetting brokerage service, so looks very well positioned."

Another excellent monthly CPO update, you can't ask for more than that.

CPO production was a record high for May, and H1 CPO production will b ematerially higher than last year's. Similarly for PKO production.

Even having softened slightly recently, CPO prices at $953 are not far from last year's H1 average of $1,013.

Extraction rates are also continuing to improve.

So this H1 will likely see a rather nice advance on last year's $4.2m EBITDA and $2.5m PAT in H1.....