Member Info for rivaldo

Everything proceeding smoothly with no surprises - which is what we want to see after past hiccups.

VLG are confident about delivering in line with expectations. With the consensus of Cenkos's and Singer's forecasts being 4.92p EPS this year, that puts VLG on a current year P/E of just 8.2.

Last night's fortnightly update from the Naked Trader revealed he's just bought into BMS:

"One not on the podcast is Braemar where I have bought a few.

Markets are always wary of shipping cos as they are cyclical but I couldn't quite resist what looks like a nice bargain here.

A statement is due soon, but we already know the figures which were kindly recently produced.

And they look good. There's also a decent dividend.

Fly in the ointment? Well, it's possible 325 is the ceiling as they don't like going above

there. Then again a breakout could be quite a powerful signal.

Any other downside? Could the outlook statement coming take some shine off? Who knows but the share look well supported and potential as a nice tuckaway with a yield too."

Https://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

Big news yesterday was that the water companies are planning to TRIPLE their spending on sewage, wastewater etc before 2030 to £10 billion.

This is of course after all the hoo-ha about polluted rivers and oceans in the UK.

Not great news for water bills, but terrific news for RNWH given their increased presence in this sector following the acquisition of Enisca:

Https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2023/05/water-companies-apologise-for-sewage-spills-announce-transformation-plan/

Https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/broker-views/RNWH

"The order book here has strengthened to £110m (HY22: £66.0m), providing good visibility for the second half and into 2024.

The net operating cash inflow was £24m and free cash inflow £22.6m, lifting period end net cash to £17.0m after £13.3m was incurred on acquisitions.

The overall Group order book at 31 March 2023 has strengthened to £890m (HY22: £771m) underpinned by long-term framework positions.

Trading has started well in the second half of the year and the strong forward order book underpins confidence that the full year will be in line with the Board's expectations.

The interim dividend was lifted 5.8% to 6.00p with the forecast full year payout of 18.15p reprsenting a yield of approx. 2.5% at the current 6732p share price.

This consistent performer, which is a popular stock for IHT planning portfolios, continues to deliver."

Https://www.investorschampion.com/channel/blog/looking-good-puzzling-valuations-stonking-small-cap-update

"Renew: looking good as always

Renew Holdings (AIM: RNWH), the Engineering Services Group supporting the maintenance and renewal of critical UK infrastructure, announced excellent interim results for the six months ended 31 March 2023.

Renew's activities are focused into two business streams: Engineering Services, which accounts for over 98% of the Group's adjusted operating profit, focuses on the key markets of Rail, Infrastructure, Energy (including Nuclear) and Environmental, which are largely governed by regulation and benefit from non-discretionary spend with long-term visibility of committed funding.

Specialist Building focuses on the Science, Landmark and High Quality Residential markets in London and the Home Counties.

Group revenue in the period increased 13.8% to £471.8m which includes a contribution from the acquisition of Enisca since December, as well as organic growth of 11.6%. Group adjusted operating profit was 8.8% higher at £28.3m with the adjusted operating profit margin 6.0% (HY22: 6.3%).

Across the two business streams…

Engineering Services activities saw revenues climb 15% to £435.8m with adjusted operating profit up 11.6% to £29.7m. Performance was driven by continued positive momentum in the Rail, Infrastructure and Environmental sectors, with the Engineering Services order book standing at a highly supportive £780m at 31 March 2023 (31 March 2022: £705m).

The Government's Autumn Statement re-confirming a commitment to a record £600bn investment in transforming the UK's infrastructure to meet the target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is good news for Renew. As are ambitious plans to scale up affordable, clean, homegrown power and build thriving green industries to boost the UK's energy security.

Within this, Network Rail, a significant customer for the Group is expected to invest £44bn over Control Period 7, which runs from 2024 to 2029 with expenditure expected to focus on operations, maintenance, and renewal of the national rail network. This plays to the Group’s strengths as does the Government's commitment to a rail decarbonisation programme including a significant investment in electrification programmes, as part of the overall UK target to deliver net zero by 2050.

Of the £24bn committed over a five-year period to England's strategic road network, £11.9bn of this funding is ringfenced for operations, maintenance and renewals which gives Renew a unique advantage from which it has continued to benefit.

With pressure on public expenditure as a result of the difficult macroeconomic environment, Renew is seeing an increased focus on maintaining and renewing existing assets instead of major infrastructure enhancement projects.

Revenue in the Specialist Building business was broadly flat at £36.0m (HY22: £36.9m), with operating profit £0.5m (HY22: £0.6m). "

"The company stated that it expected to report revenue for the year of not less than £150m (2022: £101.3m), with underlying operating profit of not less than £20m (2022: £10.1m).

Cash generation had also been strong, expected to be in a net cash positive position of circa £6.9m at the end of the financial year (2022: net debt of £9.3m).

Trading in the first few weeks of the financial year started well and the board looks forward to the rest of the year with confidence.

The Equity

There are 32,924,877 shares in issue.

The Braemar Shipping Services ESOP is the largest holder with 12.03% of the equity.

Other large holders include Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management (7.78%), Chelverton Asset Management (5.85%), Horizon Kinetics Asset Management (4.85%), Barclays Bank (Private Banking) (4.00%), Unicorn Asset Management (3.60%), and National Financial Services (2.72%).

There are three private holders of size – Quentin Soanes (3.91%), Magnus Halvorsen (3.39%) and CEO James Gundy (2.36%).

Broker’s View – 520p Valuation

Analyst Ian McInally at Cenkos Securities estimates that the year to end February 2023 will have seen sales increase to £150.5m (£101.3m), more than doubling adjusted pre-tax profits to £19.5m (£8.9m), lifting earnings up to 50.1p (45.6p) per share and easily covering a 12.0p (9.0p) dividend.

For the current year he is going for similar revenues at £150.5m, a slight lowering in profits to £17.3m, dropping earnings down to 42.4p but increasing the dividend to 13.0p per share.

The year to end February 2025 he has pencilled in an increase to £155.0m turnover, £18.5m profits, earnings of 45.3p and a very much healthier dividend of 14.9p per share.

The group which has a strong balance sheet, he suggests, will end up with £6.9m net cash for the end February 2023 year, then £13.3m this year and £18.2m next year.

Based upon his estimates McInally computes that the groups’ net assets will show through at £86.8m for the 2023 period, then £95.8m this year and £105.3m for next year.

At Edison Investment Research Andy Murphy has fairly similar estimates to Cenkos Securities.

He has a dividend discount model-based valuation for the group’s shares of 520p.

My View – On 5.8 Times Price-To-Earnings

The other quoted shipbroker is Clarkson (LON:CKN) which is valued ten times higher than Braemar, with its shares trading on 13 times current year earnings.

That compares to Braemar’s capitalisation of just £96m with its shares currently standing at 292.5p, which puts them out on a mere 5.8 times estimated historic earnings and yielding over 4.1%.

The shares, which were up to 350p in September last year, have tremendous investment appeal at the current levels.

I believe that the imminent announcement, of the group’s final results for 2023, will give a very positive showing of that year’s trading and a strong report on current prospects.

These shares are cheap an

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/braemar-strong-results-due-shortly/

"Braemar – Strong Results Due Shortly

By Mark Watson-Mitchell 17 May 2023

Did you know that there are only two publicly traded shipbroking companies quoted on the UK market and Braemar (LON:BMS) is my favourite.

Absolutely I make no apologies about returning to highlight the investment advantages of this undervalued group.

With some 16 offices across the globe the company operates on a 24/7 basis, covering all the shipping hubs in offering its customers opportunities in both established and emerging markets.

As a leading global shipbroker with offices in London, Singapore, Beijing, Geneva, Perth, Dubai, Athens, Mumbai, Aberdeen, Hamburg, Melbourne, Madrid, Palm Beach, Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Houston, the group is well-positioned to serve key industry players across different time zones and cultures.

It delivers expert advice in Chartering, Corporate Finance, Research and Analytics, Operations and Risk Management.

Its operations are diversified across Tankers, Dry Cargo, Sale & Purchase, Renewables, Financial and Offshore in order to generate a reliable, less cyclical income stream.

The £96m capitalised group claims that to achieve success in the volatile world of shipping, you need the highest level of expertise and years of practical experience.

And Braemar, with some 400 plus employees globally, offers just that to its clients.

Group Operations

The company’s operations are diversified across tankers, dry cargo, sale and purchase, renewables, financial and offshore.

It operates through three segments: Investment advisory, Chartering, and Risk advisory.

The Investment advisory segment provides investment consultancy, new build advisory, sales and purchase brokerage, asset valuation, recycling/end of life, and capital raising and corporate finance.

Its Chartering segment includes cost-saving solutions, creating and protecting deals, cross-desk collaboration, first-mover initiatives, and freight consultancy.

The Risk advisory segment includes derivatives brokerage, asset utilisation, loan restructuring, loan portfolio management, and carbon offsetting brokerage.

Sales Per Business And Region

On a sales per business basis Shipbroking accounted for £94.66m of the group’s 2022 turnover, some 93.4% of the group total, while Financial was £6.65m for the balance 6.6%.

On a sales per region basis the UK accounted for £54.52m (53.8%), Singapore £19.42m (19.2%), Australia £12.57m (12.4%), Germany £2.49m (2.5%), the US £0.97m (1.00%) with the Rest of the World handling £11.34m (11.2%).

Recent Trading Update

On 22nd March the group issued a Trading Update for the 2023 year’s results.

It announced that the business had achieved record revenue and record profitability for the year ended 28 February 2023 on a simplified business strategy."

Glad to see FNX's EBT planning to buy in up to 250,000 shares.

I like the sound of:

"The directors believe that conducting a small buyback of shares is a good use of the Company's large and growing cash balance"

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/fonix-mobile-FNX/share-news/Fonix-Mobile-PLC-Share-Buyback-Programme/91099261

Good to see Kestrel continuing to buy, alongside the daily buyback.

Kestrel now own 23.2%, or 66.3m shares, having bought another 86,000 shares. Hopefully they'll continue buying up to 29.99%!

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Directors-Dealings/91099423

New video interview of Alusid's CEO about the Topps Tile deal - interesting comment that Alusid have partnerships with large brands which he can't talk about as regards international growth:

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo3_i_xZXFM

Here's Shore Capital's full conclusion from their latest note:

"Forecasts

We increase our revenue forecast by 6% to £920m and our adjusted operating profit forecast by 3% to bring us in line with the top end of consensus at £62m. Our revenue forecast implies 8.4% growth, which we consider to be conservative given the growth achieved in H1 and the order book. We see very low downside risk to profit forecasts, given the cost-plus nature of the group’s contracts. Due to the increased tax rate, we currently forecast minimal growth in adjusted EPS, but see scope for revenue upgrades.

We believe EPS could be ahead of our current number and consensus by a high single-digit percentage. Renew has consistently had a very high level of visibility with c.70% of current year forecast sales usually in the order book. This has helped the group meet or beat consensus profit forecasts in every year since the group came into its current form in 2006.

Valuation and recommendation

We believe Renew presents an attractive opportunity for investors to benefit from the UK government’s commitment to spend £600bn on infrastructure from 2022 to 2027. Given the nature of Renew’s variable, cost-plus contracts, we believe it is very well placed to pass on inflationary pressures to customers. We also believe it is protected against economic downturns given that its revenue is driven by the public sector. We continue to believe Renew has a lower risk profile than the market perceives, possibly due to associations with peers servicing much larger fixed contracts.

We maintain our BUY recommendation and 950p DCF-based fair value (30% upside). As of yesterday's closing price, the shares trade on 12x our conservative FY23F EPS forecast and 7x on an EV/EBITDA basis.

We consider this valuation to be anomalously cheap, given the company’s consistent c.30% ROIC, 18% adjusted EPS CAGR since 2011 and current net cash position."

Didn't work - anyway, the interview is on Directors Talk.....

here's a new interview with a hardman analyst discussing their recent note "a major quantum production ramp up now secured" (i've inserted spaces to nullify the asterisks - just delete them to listen!):

https://www. ************* interviews.com/surface-transforms-production-ramp-up-secured-in-a-potential-2bn-a-year-market-video/4121118829

Berenberg have again reiterated their Buy and 250p valuation:

Https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Centralnic_Group/broker-views

Shore Capital also have a 90p price target based on "conservative" forecasts.

They conclude:

"Outlook and valuation

We have consistently flagged since we initiated research coverage in May 2022 that MTI’s strong financial platform provides a base to grow sales both organically and through acquisitions, with any new business incremental to margins/profits. In our view, the group has demonstrated this with the organic growth in Summit in 2022 boosted by the PSK acquisition, while the Q1 FY23A results show good progress for Mottech and Antennas.

In the note that accompanied the FY22A results in March, we highlighted that each of the divisions has growth drivers with, in our view, Mottech particularly well placed to potentially see stronger sales than we forecast. as its software improves the efficiency of irrigation systems, while reducing the cost of operating them. We also expect to see good demand for the defence-related products and services of Summit/PSK. Finally, the Antenna division is likely to benefit from the rollout of 5G across the world as it already supplies seven of the top ten operators with its technologies.

We maintain a 90p fair value on the basis of a DCF analysis, which is corroborated by MTI achieving an FY23F EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.2x (the average of our peer group)".

Another 800,000 shares bought this morning and another tick up....looking strong. Hopefully Harwood Capital/Christopher Mills are buying again.

Allenby Capital have retained their 90p fair value price target this morning.

With 1.01c EPS in the usually much quieter Q1, MWE have made a very good start to 2023 and look likely to beat the forecast of 4.28c EPS for the year imo.

RNS - prelims will be next Tuesday May 23rd.

We already know results will be in line with around 25.3p EPS, plus a 1.2p dividend.

Order books are excellent and confidence is high with so much forward revenue visibility. Perhaps the upcoming results will bring in some buying on such a low P/E.

Batterseafish, the CEO and the other guy sold just 9% of their holding - the first such sales since the IPO in 2021 - and they retain very large holdings in ETP. It's perhaps more relevant that post-IPO other directors were buying more at 255p, 276p and 279p - well above where the share price is even now after the company has progressed nicely since then!

EPS is up 14% and PBT up 9% in the normally quieter Q1, with the cash pile up to $8.5m (the divi being paid in April) and bringing in additional interest receivable, plus improved margins also helping the cause.

Each of the 3 divisions is performing well and there's confidence for the outlook in all of them. Water, 5G and defence are all great areas to be in and should continue to be so in the short and long-term.

There's also a notable mention of growth being acquisition-led as well as organic:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-Q1-2023-Financial-Result/91085260