Member Info for rivaldo

I'm glad to see the CEO being issued options exerciseable at 2.95p rather than the oft-used nil cost. He doesn't benefit at all if the share price doesn't rise (and tohope for options to be issued with an exercise price at a 33% premium to the current share price is simply living in a fantasy land).

Hopefully this indicates CMH's belief that the share price is at or around lows from which it's a good time to issue incentives with upside a-coming:

Chelverton have declared they now have 670k shares left, so as they had 850k before they must have sold 180k.

Interesting that the transactions took place on 4th and 26th July - if they'd been buybacks I'd have thought TST would have had to RNS them immediately, so perhaps there's a large buyer out there sweeping up the stock?

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/touchstar-TST/share-news/Touchstar-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/91683890

Good stuff, with the production improvements continuing without a hitch and cash being managed prudently.

And a nice hint of news flow to come:

"The Company is continuing its work with customers on converting its prospective contact pipeline into firm orders with further announcements expected in the current financial year"

A solid H1 trading update, with revenues up 24% and the order books up 30% on the year end, providing strong visibility in meeting expectations.

Cenkos have retained their forecast of 5.81p EPS this year, i.e a P/E of only 5.7, and say Buy.

Plus there's strong cash generation this year, with "FY23E FCF expected to be £7.2m indicating a current FCF yield of 17%".

Great to see Dowgate Wealth buying another 11m shares, and now up to 6.98%:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/react-REAT/share-news/React-Group-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/91673616

Another £24,000 of shares just bought back at 1200p, in addition to the £27,875 bought back on 11th July:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Transaction-in-Own-Shares/91674129

Also, on 20th June FG Nominees based via Intertrust in Nassau (very nice) declared they'd been tipped over the 3% holding mark by the buybacks:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/91378822

There's more info as to FG Nominees in the Panama Papers (!) here, but not sure it yields much:

Https://offshoreleaks.icij.org/nodes/10173907

With approaching 8.3p per share in cash, and around 3.3p EPS forecast this year, MWE are on a miserly ex-cash P/E of only just over 10.

Shore Capital updated after the Indian subsidiary news - FYI here's their conclusion, retaining their 90p valuation:

"Outlook and valuation:

In the March note we also highlighted that each of the divisions has growth drivers with, in our view, Mottech particularly well placed to potentially see stronger demand than we forecast for its water management and control software. Typically, the software improves the efficiency of irrigation systems, while reducing the cost of operating them. The Antenna division is likely to benefit from the rollout of 5G across the world as it already supplies seven of the top ten operators with its technologies. Today’s news of the establishment of its Indian subsidiary positions it particularly well in the Indian market, in our view. Summit/PSK had a strong FY22A and we would also expect to see continued good demand for its defence-related products and services as demonstrated by the recent contract win.

The share price has drifted lower since the release of the Q1 results in May. Ahead of Q2/H1 FY23F results in mid-August, we maintain a 90p fair value on the basis of a DCF analysis, which is corroborated by MTI achieving an FY23F EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.2x (the average of our peer group)."

Following the H1 update Zeus have raised their EPS forecasts for this year by 2% and by 12% next year.

They now see 21.3c EPS this year, rising to 25.1c EPS next year.

In summary:

"H1 update: Walking the talk

CentralNic provided a solid H1 2023 update, giving the company confidence in delivering 2023 results at least in line with expectations and to continue its share buyback programme. Gross revenue grew c. 31% organically in the LTM to end of H1 2023, with strong performance and market share gains across all business lines. Adjusted EBITDA/net revenue margin was steady and in line with our full year estimate. Adjusted cash conversion was 89% and is expected to improve in H2. Net debt was higher in H1 due to increased share buybacks. At the current share price, we expect material share buybacks to continue.

We raise our 2023 net debt estimate, lower share count and thereby upgrade Adj EPS by 2% in 2023 and 12% in 2024. We expect continued strong earnings performance to drive CentralNic’s low multiples (2023: c.6x EBITDA, c.8x PE) higher."

"Outlook and forecast revisions:

Strong trading in H1 2023 gives the Board confidence that full year results will be at least in line with market expectations. H1 2023 gross revenue is about 48.0% of our full year 2023 estimates, compared to 46.8% in 2022 on a pro forma basis. We leave revenue and profit estimates unchanged. However, we increase our net debt forecast due to increased share buybacks, discussed above. Cash outflows for share buybacks in H1 2022 was $13.7m, already near our original full year forecast of $14.8m.

Given the company plans to continue aggressively buying back shares, we raise our cash outflows for share buybacks and our year-end net debt figure by $38m to $76m. We lower our 2023 weighted average share count by 5.9m to 269.7m, assuming shares are purchased evenly throughout H2 2023 at the current share price. We lower 2024 weighted average share count by 24m shares to 244m, reflecting the full impact of share buybacks in H2 2023.

As a result, we raise Adj EPS by 2% in 2023 and by 12% in 2024. We expect net debt/EBITDA to remain low at 0.8x in 2023, broadly unchanged from 0.7x in 2022.

Valuation: The shares have risen 15% over the last month but remain attractively valued at c.6x EV/ EBITDA, c.8x Adj PE and c.13% FCFE 2023."

Liberum say Buy and have a 26.3p valuation, compared to Finncap's 35p. But they themselves note that they "foresee upside potential" and that "hVIVO looks like a compelling investment".

A couple of extracts:

"hVIVO’s first-half performance was strong with revenue and EBITDA both materially ahead of our expectations. The company now has 57% coverage of our full-year EBITDA estimate of £9.4m, but the full-year guidance is cautiously unchanged amid a backlog of trial approvals at the MHRA. We will look to review this again in September when we get more detail on new clinical trial starts but do foresee upside potential if the rate of trial approvals accelerates.

Overall, this is a strong update that ticks many of the boxes, and when the shares look this cheap on just 8x EV / 2023 EBITDA, hVIVO looks like a compelling investment. We reiterate our strong buy rating."

"Performance ahead of expectations

hVIVO has issued a trading statement for the six-month period ending 30 June 2023. The trading statement shows a strong first-half with underlying revenue in the first-half up 52% YoY to £27.3m, this is 15% ahead of our expectation of £23.7m. Profitability also improved due to continued operational efficiencies with the EBITDA margin increasing by around 780bps to c.19%, indicating that EBITDA has more than doubled to around £5.4m, again 38% ahead of our expectation of £3.8m. Cash generation also continues to be strong with a cash position of £31.3m reported at period-end higher than anticipated, benefiting from the higher profitability and contract wins."

"Valuation

We have now seen five consecutive periods of EBITDA profitability and once again management has exceeded expectations. The update gives us encouragement for the full year and reinforces our view that hVIVO is evolving into a quality healthcare company. Lastly, with around £33m of net cash forecasted at the end of 2023, there is potential for bolt-on M&A to accelerate growth and expand the offering into adjacencies. Shares trade on just 8x EV/ 2023 EBITDA, which, in our view, looks extremely good value on a growth and sub-sector basis when the most relevant UK peer, Ergomed, trades on 15x. We remain buyers with an unchanged target price of 26.30p."

Excellent H1 update yesterday - with such high revenue visibility of revenues, and 50.5% of Finncap's forecast revenues achieved in H1, there's a good chance of forecasts being beaten.

The £31.3m cash pile represents almost 30% of the m/cap in itself.

Finncap reiterate their 35p target price and summarise as follows:

"H1 trading update – revenues +52%, EBITDA +126%

hVIVO released a positive trading update, with service revenues (excluding R&D tax credit) rising 52% to c.£27.3m. This represents 50.5% of our FY 2023 forecast. EBITDA margins of c.19% are expected, up from 12.1% in H1 2022, which implies EBITDA of c.£5.2m (an increase of 126% and representing c.58% of current FY 2023 forecast). Underlying free cashflow, before the payment of £3m special dividend, was c.£6m in the period, reflecting both EBITDA growth and client up-front cash payments to secure quarantine beds, with period-end cash of £31.4m.

hVIVO confirmed that it is fully contracted to achieve full-year forecasts and, based on the MHRA’s current guided timeline for approvals and hVIVO’s contingency plans, it reaffirms revenue guidance of £53m and EBITDA margins in the mid to high teens (FC est. 16.1%). We leave forecasts unchanged for now, although consider the risk to forecasts is to the upside. We maintain a 35p target price."

"Cash generative.

Cash at 30 June was £31.3m, which compares with £15.9m and £28.4m at 30 June 2022 and 31 December 2023, respectively. This includes the payment of a £3.0m special dividend on 9 June 2023 and implies free cashflow of c.£6m in the period.

Record order book.

The weighted contracted orderbook at 30 June 2023 had increased 11% to £78m (H1 2022: £70m and £76m at 31 December), which has increased further following the 25 July announcement of a £13.1m nfluenza B challenge model contract (some of which was recognised in H1); illustrating the demand for human challenge studies and the visibility that it provides into H2 FY 2024. Moreover, the order book is diversified across multiple clients, challenge agents and geographies, providing a strong foundation for long-term revenue growth.

Forecasts and valuation are left unchanged and we reiterate our 35p target price. The current price implies hVIVO is now valued at 2023E EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA of 1.4x and 8.7x. In our view, this neither reflects the underlying growth, the defensive nature of the earnings, nor the strategic value of hVIVO as the only significant provider of human challenge studies."

FIPP will now have early access to a new range of European investments:

Https://www.frontierip.co.uk/frontier-ip/emporia4kt-reaches-concludes-successfully/

"Emporia4KT reaches concludes successfully

26/7/2023

Frontier IP, and its Portuguese subsidiary, FIP Portugal, successfully developed a range of tools to support technology transfer across Europe’s Atlantic Blue Economy as part of a major pan-European project backed by EUR 2.8 million in funds.

The four and a half-year project, called Emporia4KT, was launched in March 2019 to strengthen knowledge transfer and value creation and supported by the European Regional Development Fund’s INTERREG Atlantic Area programme. It brought together academic, business, societal and government stakeholders from five countries on Europe’s Atlantic seaboard – Portugal, Spain, France and the United Kingdom. Initially, there were 12 partners and three associate partners involved, but this was later extended to 17 partners and, geographically, to the Canary Islands.

Frontier IP’s role in Emporia4KT was to lead one of the work streams and create risk assessment tools for business projects, including an Attrition Model, to help potential spin outs develop commercialisation road maps for their early-stage technologies and improve their chances of success.

Researchers supported by Emporia4KT and Frontier IP are developing a range of early-stage technologies. Potential spin out companies and ideas include:

Polivercrete: a technology based on polymer-modified concrete that uses plastic waste ground into a fine aggregate to replace sand in concrete and mortar. The material has the potential to cut plastic pollution and reduce the environmental and social impact of extracting sand.

Fast and Fishious: is developing environmentally friendlier methods to farm fish. It is also seeking to market farmed and processed golden grey mullet under the brand name Canary Rockcod as a cheap and healthy foodstuff, initially in the Canary Islands.

Subcritical Water (SCW): the technology recycles waste from processing cod [and other fish] into protein hydrolysate and hydroxyapatite, which have broad applicability in the food and biotechnology industries.

Floating Bubble Hotel: is looking to create domes on floating platforms for use as hotel accommodation on water.

WavePlat: the technology converts wave energy into electricity and is designed to support facilities in deep water, such as offshore fish farms. It is modular and can be configured in various ways.

A further project is exploring the use of metabolites from marine algae for anti-parasitic treatments, especially Naegleria Fowleri parasites, also known as brain-eating amoeba, which has a mortality rate of more than 97 per cent.

Seafood sustainability index: technology to provide benchmarks for assessing the environmental and societal impact of seafood production. Initial works is to focus on salmon fillets.

Frontier IP also developed a Blue E

Berenberg retain their Buy and 250p valuation:

Https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Centralnic_Group/broker-views

This article suggests a pre-money valuation for Allied Gold of $1.2 billion:

Https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/163921/Africas-Fastest-Growing-Gold-Miner-Attracts-Highly-Experienced-Former-Yamana-Principals-to-Drive-Public-Listing-and-Continue-to-Build-the-Next-Generation-Senior-Gold-Producer

CAPD's investment was valued at $7.7m at the last year end and is 1.55% of Allied. With a $1.2 billion pre-money valuation that would imply a value of $18.6m.

Of course we'll know for sure whether this IPO valuation has been maintained in the next couple of weeks.

REAT's recent Mello presentation isn't on YouTube, but I found the video here - just scroll down from Paul Scott's intro paragraph, and listen from around 2 hours in:

Https://beforeitsnews.com/financial-markets/2023/07/small-cap-value-report-wed-19-july-2023-wjg-rtn-fif-chrt-spr-pgh-5059974.html

Management sound extremely confident to say the least. Immediately afterwards, at around 2 hours 40 minutes, is Christopher Mills' presentation when he also talks about his investment in REAT.

Just catching up having been away for the excellent H1 trading update. Most importantly:

"the Directors remain confident that the Group continues to trade at least in line with current market expectations for the full year."

The "at least" suggests that once again CNIC will beat expectations.

The conclusion of this new Master Investor article says it all:

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-cnic-gph-and-dwf/?mc_cid=820afaaa6c&mc_eid=db9f9bbaf2

"I know I can be boring, but these shares really are looking so attractive at present, just look at that massive annual recurring revenue driving its balance sheet.

With the highest guesstimate being 350p, the market’s average consensus Target Price is 260p for the £358m capitalised group’s shares, which at 127p are only trading on 8 times current year earnings – that really is ridiculously cheap in my view."

Nice summary of FNX's progress since IPO - Investors Chgampion summarise the current share price as "cracking value":

Https://www.investorschampion.com/channel/blog/amp/an-exciting-new-fast-growing-arrival-on-aim

Good news - looks like the Allied Gold IPO is going ahead on or around August 17th.

CAPD are thought to own around 2% of Allied, and this stake was valued at $7.7m at 31/12/22 (see p.101 of the Annual Report). The stake could be worth up to another $20m or so for CAPD on Allied's IPO, on top of the very considerable $30m or so value of the rest of CAPD's investment portfolio - giving a total portfolio valuation of some $50m against the total m/cap of £167m:

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allied-gold-corp-limited-allied-204500881.html

Allied have raised the minimum $250m, and are looking for more to take them nearer the $300m originally mooted.

Difficult to tell what CAPD's upside is without knowing exactly how many Allied shares they own, unless this paragraph helps someone to work it out:

"In connection with the Going Public Event, the Common Shares will be consolidated on a 1:2.2585 basis prior to the issuance of the Resulting Issuer Shares, which are expected to trade in Canadian Dollars reflecting an effective price of approximately C$5.92 per Resulting Issuer Share."

Great to see CPO prices zooming up to $1,035 now (they were $855 at the end of May).

And of course DKL this year have a particularly large amount of stock in hand to take advantage of these prices.

Earlier this morning the maximum number of shares you could buy online was just 50k, or around £1,500's worth. Looks like there's very little stock around now.

Finncap have reiterated their 270p target price.

They summarise:

"Strong trading drives FY23 upgrades of +4-5%

In today’s trading update, Fonix has announced FY23 gross profit +5% ahead at £15.1m, adjusted EBITDA +4% ahead at £11.6m, and confirmed confidence in the group’s prospects for FY24 and beyond. FY23 TPV of £268.1m is +1% ahead of our previous forecast, the platform engaged with a record 19m customers in FY23, and customer retention has continued at 100%. Both the payments and messaging segments delivered over +16% yoy gross profit growth, and scaled gross profit as a % of TPV to 5.6% from 5.1% in FY22.

The FY23 launch in Ireland has demonstrated robust progress, with 16% of the Irish adult population already using Fonix’s platform for a payment transaction, and all three tier 1 media clients in Ireland now live on the platform. The success of the Irish operation provides an excellent blueprint for expansion into other international markets, as Fonix aspires to be the world’s leading provider of interactive services.

Following tier 1 client wins and expansions in the UK and Ireland, including ITV in March, the outlook confirms a strong revenue run-rate for FY24, with a growing pipeline of prospects across all sectors and markets. After today’s update drives upgrades of +4-5% for FY23 gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, we conservatively reiterate our FY24 forecasts at this point, and look forward to further detail at the FY23 results on 21 September.

As the platform scales, it is continuing to generate strong growth in underlying free cash flow, and the board intends to grow the dividend in line with the progressive dividend policy to pay out at least 75% of adjusted EPS. We reiterate

our target price of 270p based on 3% FY24E EFCF and dividend yield, and as Fonix continues to deliver upon the investment case by expanding with existing clients and winning new clients from a growing UK and international pipeline, we look forward to further updates on international launches, and new contract wins."

Last night's RNS is worth noting - Dowgate Wealth via Onward Opportunities Ltd have appeared from nowhere with 5.89%, or 62,276,700 shares:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/react-REAT/share-news/React-Group-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/91605186

They don't appear on REAT's most recent major shareholder list over 3% at all as at 15th May, so must have been buying steadily since then alongside Harwood Capital:

Https://www.reactsc.co.uk/react-group-plc