Member Info for riptonk

I think some of us gave it everything.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-10-21/world-s-priciest-oil-auction-may-raise-50-billion-in-brazil

This article talks about the costs of licence bids coming up next month for Brazil. They are massive figures and commitments or alternatively you can take your money to Orinduik and have a far better idea of what you get for your investment. Next two months will be the time to show hands I think.

"The thickness [55m] exceeded our best estimate pre-drill expectations, so potentially it is a much bigger discovery than we anticipated."

Best estimate pre-drill was 32.2.

Noix - I have mislaid a document that was post drill that had Jethro as 300mmboe as the low estimate and 450mmboe as the high so this interview is interesting. Gil also did an interview with Andrew Scott on 19/09/19 when he said, 'Big, very big Jethro discovery'.
I think Jethro by itself will come in higher than 40mmboe net but you have given me new information. P94 of the CPR below is where I get my thinking from but I will keep looking for that post drill document unless someone can help me out.
https://www.ecooilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/AIM2019CP-ECO-Orinduik-reporMar2019Final-.pdf

I can accept a share price - that's a fact. But $5 for a barrel is the lowest price on the reasonability scale and 40m is actually lower than the lowest estimate giving a 40 cent discount. If you chip the figures like that then they are no longer real. Real will be along in a couple of weeks.

IJWT - just read your post again more carefully and see you mention the channel too. Whatever the case, feels like a treasure trove at the moment. Let's hope news lives up to the growing confidence.

IJWT - that puts your estimate near 90 then. I think there are a few on here who think it is closer to 100m than it is to 50m, hence some talking it down to fill their boots further. Unfortunately I'm not that smart - I just ploughed in because this is a fantastic opportunity. Still think I've got ridiculously good value at every price I've paid.

Hammerhead needs to be getting close to a billion barrels to be 15m net to Eco - unless the overlap has been significantly underestimated. I have Jethro as quite a bit higher. Should be clear before Xmas.

Agree. Jester has either been hacked or whacked.

https://twitter.com/WorldOil/status/1178670976898359296?s=19

I know squat diddly about JOG but now I'm told Eco have 36mmboe I'm in full panic mode.

You might be right.

His spare change is more than mine Rover. Not sure the price matters for a long trade if you are going to hold for 6 months - you may as well grab your shares before news comes.

He means he writes them and clicks post message and it disappears. I have had the same problem for 24hrs.

Sorry hereandnow - always respected your opinion. You don't believe a word of it? If you read my posts like 4kandles has then you would at least see it is possible. You would read the post of switching my entire ISA to RRE on the Friday afternoon before delisting too. I don't have to make anything up but I won't accept shorter talking it down and trying to remove the maths. I hope I've misunderstood you but not too fussed either way. 4kandles ignored the maths - wonder why? Check his 12th Sep post saying he takes TW shorting advice seriously.

4kandles - had to go a long way back for some of those didn't you? You are right about some trades of which I would not repeat and Frr is definitely the standout example. I would just like to correct you with some points though. I got out of AEG for a miraculous 20% loss two years ago. ALBA was bought at 27p and sold at 62p which was the ultimate high - very proud of that one. UKOG bagged from 1p to 2p, AAOG was B/E, Angus was bought at 6p and sold at 15p. This year I have only been in RRE at 80% of my pf when delisting happened and I moved into Eco before Jethro so I'm sitting at around 500% for the year. I also have minor holdings in ARB and PTAL. When I exit shares I don't revisit BB's out of respect for shareholders and I never short. I'm a real character aren't I?!

Thanks for your input but I know which one rules my trading direction.

Sell it then Rover56 because I've been buying yours all week and will do next week. Free money here.

Lowest possible valuation of Eco based on finds so far

Hammerhead – 400mmboe with 10% to Orinduik and 15% to Eco = 6mmboe net to Eco
This is almost certainly not going to be this small since Hammerhead looks to be estimated much higher after more evaluation.

Jethro – 300mmboe x 15% = 45mmboe (I have again used the low estimate post drilling. I believe this is closer to 450mmboe)

Joe – Estimated at 75mmboe to 150mmboe (So to go on the conservative side again we’ll call that 15% of 75mmboe) = 11.25mmboe

6 + 45 + 11.25 = 62.25mmboe net to Eco is based on the lowest end possible of three fields that have been discovered.

62.25 x $7 per barrel (low estimate) = $435.75

$435.75 / 1.25 exchange rate to pound = £348.6 of oil discovery so far

And yet today’s market cap stands at £273.64

So the share price is £64 million short of the discoveries and values at least 7 cretaceous fields in the most prolific basin in the world at zero, in addition to a prime licence area in Namibia clearly valued at zero.

A tier 1 asset in a politically stable area of the world close to the US market.

Conclusion : complete madness. When Malcy said the SP target was 500p and then later commented that his figures were too low, he was not wrong.

Oh - and plus cash $27m - almost forgot. So the SP is easily $90m off the pace now.

Write a 'report' and then short. And then reverse position and walk off into the sunset with Eco shares worth a billion +. Simples.