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@Oldfortyniner, congratulations on you purchase price, This was a great buy in price during the original falls. Good to see movement today on the SP, I think there could be some truth in your views that the greater benefit is ahead as we go through summer, I sometimes find staying patience hard in a volatile market with a stubborn share price.
Best wishes to us all ref Thursday's update
@Gsmiley
I'm not invested in Sdry but it is a share i have followed closely. I feel the shorts maybe right on the next update. Sdry is challenged with possessing stores that are too big, Holding way too many SKU's per category, City center locations, which will be the last to recover from lockdown, plus a big move in trends away from casual / Athleisure into more formal styling this year. I think the SP could hit £2.10/£2.00 on the next update. (Another buying opportunity?)
Julian as his work cut out and its good to see him back in control with a greater focus on influences and reduced rents achieved but the brand desirability is rock bottom and a continued focus on plastering the logo across designs is an error achieved by a lot of failed brands, the design team needs an overhaul and the brand needs a new hand writing to move forward, until this is evident in new collections i'm not convinced Sdry will deliver returns that some other retail stocks will give.
I continue to watch with interest and hope the SP does increase for all holders, as retailers have had the worse of times. GLA.
A very quiet board?
Year end results due 22nd March, predicted to be as expected in the last RNS. Does anyone have any thoughts on if they see the SP rising out of this long stagnated period over the next 4 weeks or so?
I've noticed recently on trips to the supermarket stocks on the shelves look to be low again, hopefully this is through sales and not replenishment / stock issues. I've noticed a jump in SP recently among some of the beverage brands and was hoping to see a similar SP rise here. Hopefully the update will give an indication to forward orders received for the reopening of the licensed trade and this can move the SP. Fingers crossed a little bull run could see £28/£30 (Maybe)
I feel a key factor behind the SP not breaking the £4 barrier recently is the Asos purchase of Topshop. Boohoo's success has been built on taking market share and customers from the high street fast fashion players, especially Topshop. There is now a very real possibility that under Asos ownership that Topshop will now start to take market share and customers back off Boohoo, putting Boohoo's UK planned growth at risk of failing to meet expectations or past growth rates.
Someone mentioned recently that the best way to trade this share is between the £3 and £3.60 mark and I would agree. I'm confident the SP will raise back to the £3.60 / £3.80 mark on the run up to results, as for £4+ i feel there is going to have to be significant growth internationally to offset a very real potential of UK business growth slowing.
Whilst some posters seem to be getting frustrated at the absence of a Black Friday RNS update this year. I think this represents how the board is developing and is good news. Any positive RNS at present regarding sales would be counteracted by the press claiming how the company is thriving through immoral practices and therefore i don't think the SP would benefit as much on this news as it as previously. Updating on BF in the Jan update would be ideal.
The good news is Umar as already confirmed all records have been broken regarding PLT. I can also give some industry insight to those invested without access to retail data, the majority of fashion retailer's, high street sites are trading on average back -30% LFL since coming out of lock down 2. Online as continued to grow as the high street as reopened for most key players. If the majority of the high street fashion sales are back a 1/3 on LY in their (stores only) then this indicates another strong growth month for online in December (More than expected).
GLA - 5 weeks of patience is worth holding on to for the SP to get near / exceed £4.00
I personally feel one of the biggest benefits for Boo and the share price will be re-trading on the ASOS site. Reinstating a second sales channel globally will be hugely beneficial and the loss of this partnership earlier in the year hit the share price. Hopefully this mornings RNS will give potential brand partners regained confidence in Boo again to open trading on their platforms.
GLA
Hi Chapel. Will be interesting to see how much the SP lifts on turnover growth alone next week. You could be right on the 20p+ share price with how the markets are trading at the moment.
Hopefully the update will give an insight into marketing spend, Instagram followers @ 54k still low so i'd imagine the spend in this area will remain high.
GLA
There are some major red flags in the fundamentals that raise big concerns with SOS. Interested to hear others views on this?
Sales 2018 £4.4m / loss (£3.5m) stock holding 25%
Sales 2019 £9.0m / loss (£7.8m) Stock holding 30%
The brand is buying turnover and at a huge loss! Stock holding at 30% to turnover is excessive.
2019 was worse than 2018, sales up £4.6m but loss increased by £4.3m versus 2018?
This year turnover will have increased significantly again according to the RNS's, however if the loss also increases again, then the longevity of the brand is in question.
Like Acker, I'm also expecting an update next week.
Although i think it maybe underwhelming but present possibly one of the last opportunities to buy around the £20 price, should an update be subdued.
GLA
Laughton - I would think it is because of the latter.
I'm invested in Fevertree and monitor the brand closely, The premium tonic range is Fevr' best selling line and constantly the one that is low on stock levels in their retail partners. Fevr' have also created a 16 can pack range for the first time this festive period, which looks encouraging regarding their insight into demand.
I'm also seeing a lot of branding by the company at the moment.
I think it's an exciting 24 months ahead for Fevertree,
I think it is realistic to see the SP fall over the forthcoming week. The markets will adjust to the short term news of lock down, some falls will be significant, like the first lock down. Remember this will create a massive opportunity for the Market Makers to cause fear, forcing unnecessary sells from PI's. Its part of the game and where big money is made.
Boohoo SP will rise steeply if the board decide to release a Black Friday RNS update in Mid December. Black Friday sales will now all be online for the first time with the high street closed, also BF is scheduled for the last week of November, when this happens it also accumulates xmas sales in the same week. (When BF falls in the second to last week of Nov it doesn't pick up as much xmas sales as it misses the November ending payday. BF will now be a record year this year for online retailers.
The problem the high street fashion retailers are facing even if the high street opens in December, is customers not been able to try on clothing in the majority of stores. This is costing them severely in sales and this will not change. Currently the industry average for fashion High Street fashion retailers is (42%) V last year from their retail sites.
6 weeks of volatility in SP with a strong rebound from mid December is my guess, potentially hitting the £4.
GLA
Agree Des. Revenues will fall with a subdued Xmas / New Year period and this could hit profits more so than the first lock down as the comparative period is stronger. Hopefully the SP falls considerably and I personally think with Patience £16.50 - £18 will come around again.
I will be loading up further on an already large holding, whilst a fall in revenue is imminent, the profile of the brand and the awareness with consumers will be increasing rapidly during lock down through retail outlets. Once things get back to normal i think the lock down will have been the best thing for Fevertree's brand and I'd expect a rapid SP to follow mid to long term. Someone commented previous about Monsters success and I do see similar comparatives in Fevertree's position in their market. A share price of £40+ would be a fair estimate within 12 months of getting back to normal life.
Yes, results out tomorrow.
Don't think i have seen a share of this value be so quiet and stagnated on price, during run up to results. Not sure if this is a sign that the market thinks the share price is better much where it should be at £21/£22.
I feel the market share / growth performance in the US is going to be the main factor behind moving this share price during the next 12-18 months. Concerns already been raised in the industry at the cost of lost earnings from the absence of corporate Christmas events.
Maybe we will see some short term growth tomorrow, then an opportunity to re-buy with a lower SP during peak months. I'm expecting the SP to hit £40 in 12-18 months should US trade take off.
GLA
Some private investors maybe wondering if today's Sp of 286p is a good price to add more shares or is it a good time to sell after the recent gains of around 30% in recent weeks.
I think it is important as private investors we all help each other to make money, as we are often disadvantaged against the corporate investment funds etc. When it comes to having access to certain information on a brand / industry performance etc.
So to all PI's wanting genuine guidance and don't work in the industry and maybe unsure what to do next, I will confirm that online sales in the retail industry in recent weeks have been at record highs and these highs are exceeding all expectations, in some cases the growth is exceptional.
Some fashion brands have seen triple digit growth in recent weeks from their online platforms. In addition to this 10 million+ people would normally travel abroad in late July / August, that majority is now staying in the UK which will continue to fuel the current level of exceptional sales for a sustained period and this is one of the main reasons behind performance in recent weeks.
The strength of online at present is outstanding and I am confident Boohoo will have captured this more than most as the leader in their field.
I would advise hold on to your Boohoo shares, even add more, they will hit £3.30 to £3.50 by results day, possibly highly if the current rate of growth can be sustained across the whole month of August.
I purchased Boohoo shares originally at 40p and sold pre covid at £3.34 as I know the industry very well. I have kept out of Boohoo since, only repurchasing recently when the shares fell in the £2.10 - £2.30 range. I am a private investor and have purchased a high 5 figure sum to share my confidence on the SP at present.
GLA
The predicted Dow Jones crash doesn't worry me too much regarding the FTSE & Aim markets as our markets seem to have underperformed most global markets post covid, impact should be limited on UK markets. It will be interesting to see what the correction is on the Dow Jones as it does seem to be extremely overvalued v fundamentals.
Simple maths on this one Kozz
Newly funded with £15m of debt and highly loss making. The brand will never be able to clear the debt or the interest that occurs on the debt.
Will end up in the hands of Hilco in around 18 - 24 months from now delisted, with all shareholders losing their investment.
Great to see the SP rise, especially for the long suffering shareholders who deserve a good return.
I personally think this share is a very quick buy and sell in the short term only, on any volatility in SP in the next week or so.
My view on a takeover is in the funding, Hilco in my view have just bought FC for 15 million and saved them from going bust. Hilco are known as ruthless salvage specialists and i'd be pretty certain they expect FC at some point to falter on their funding payments so they can acquire the brand through the T&C's of the loan.
Fc is now probably £15m in debt and highly loss making, continuing under the same leadership, which will please Hilco. FC had an option in place with their bank that they could lend £5m of funding, this option looks to have been withdrawn by the bank recently.
GLA
Not looking good here.
8 weeks now since the brand stated they were confident of raising funds, yet still no confirmation. Online platform and product looks very poor currently, can't see their online business picking up too much of the retail stores declining sales.
Sarah Curran non - executive as joined True Fit as Managing Director this month, moving her priorities?
GLA.
Hawfinch.
I do agree with some of your comments, such as Ted is the next French Connection etc and I don't see Ted as a long term hold. However with all the Executive changes etc, I'd expect a lot of RNS activity throughout the next half promoting changes that Ted is making strategic improvements etc. There is a massive opportunity in the first year under new leadership to make some quick wins, Ted will not be profitable for at least 2 to 3 years but showing the current £80m loss can be reduced significantly, should be a very realistic proposition and this is what will move the SP short term.
Retail shares are risky at present but retail is not dead or dying, it is changing and in a high period of transition now led by Marketing and IT expertise rather than traditional retail skills.
Will Ted fail? I truly believe it will and probably already as. Is Ted worth investing in at the current SP during its fight? Yes as i believe there will be improvements made short term that will move the SP upwards. (FCCN Failed many years ago but many times the SP rose from an average 35p to 60p on failed optimism) As an investor SP gains are made on improvements, I think most investors will have a chance to make a good return at these levels if they sell quickly on a good SP rise.
GLA
A bad week for the SP.
I am confident Ted will gain strong momentum in their SP at some point over the next 4 weeks, a large majority of retail shares where hit harder than market average last week and a proportion of this is in Ted's falling SP.
The new chairman will be keen to announce an update soon to developments in strategy, I would hope this involves an agreement with all landlords to move onto turnover rents, alternatively if this is not possible then an announcement on store closures to reduce the current portfolio significantly, Once these news flows start to come out we will see an upward momentum at pace.
I think the city will be surprised at this stage that no announcements of this kind have been made but it takes time.
RNS updates soon?
GLA.