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Jimmyjesus- The best offer FC had was 41p a share in January, when the share price back then was around 36p. Now we are down to 5.3p a share, any offer now you would assume would be around £7m at best = 7p a share.
Only hope is Mike Ashley who's 27% share holding was purchased for £9m approx. Does he write this off in administration and then buy the brand out for say £1m therefore gets the brand for £10m in total or does he make a low offer bid just before administration say around £5m - £7m and secure the brand for a total investment of £15m to £17m? either way from a shareholder view, the best offer for the brand is not going to be anything over 10p a share i believe.
GLA.
Bloodninja - Thanks for the update on the creative role, i'd missed that one. Looks like the overhaul of strategic roles is in place to move forward.
I would expect a few RNS to come out over the new few months, as they aim to highlight the changes and progressive steps made.
GLA
I think there will be a lot of doom and gloom around Ted and performance for the rest of this year. Reality is they only have 12 months to turn this brand around with the funding / cash raised recently. It is going to be tough and the brand as lost desirability, which is the most valued asset of any premium / luxury fashion brand.
The good news is they have made the right changes at the top to give themselves a chance in managing the finances, the biggest appointment they can make is a head of creative, ideally one for both Mens & womens that can evolve the dated hand writing of the brand.
I am aware of an influential appointment on their ecom side and this appointment gives me great confidence that Ted's online business will improve significantly. Knowing this I have invested here with great confidence at the current share price.
I believe the brand still as value and if they can build desirability quickly, a takeover would be much better once this is achieved probably around the £3.50 / £4 mark.
One area Ted excels in is their instagram profile 1.1m followers!!! Way ahead of all other premium UK brands, Get the marketing right here and the recovery will be evident.
GLA
I think there is still a chance of a takeover. Maybe more so than ever as Stephen Marks now only has 2 options lose everything he has invested or try and get something in the final months.
He has refused to sell on at least 2 occasions in the last 12 months. I hope i am wrong but I personally feel it will be bought out of administration rather than taken over beforehand. Boohoo or MA, I can actually see the Boohoo Men's team reinventing the FC mens range / designs with success.
GL
The loss of Next will not have too much impact on Boohoo's performance, However ASOS definitely will and is a major concern.
The concern is how much of Boohoo's forward strategy is to use the global online multi brand retailers to grow their revenue, profits & profile? I think it is a big part of their strategy and is their best option to drive performance of their recent brand purchases such as Oasis / Warehouse & KM globally. If other multi brand retailers refuse to stock Boohoo's brands, then trying to gain traction of all these brands solely through their own website will hit the rate in which growth is achieved considerably.
Boohoo have to prove quickly they were not close to this supplier.
Big fan of Boohoo bought at 40p sold at £3.33. Would normally jump back in at the current share price but there seems to be a lot of smoke (without the fire for now) around the brand in recent months.
GLA - Hope £4 returns soon but it definitely feels cracks are starting to appear in this golden share.
Agree with you Majorboy.
Topps is looking one of the best shares on the market for me at present in terms of value v's risk. As you previously state, I also see the mid 50's achieved on the next short term rally of the market.
Agree Nanjan.
Highlighting they needed to raise funds or they would run out of cash in the forthcoming months should have been the warning sign for investors.
How can the company raise funds when it is only valued at £6m ? It would need to raise more than this just to survive this year, what fund would loan a company more money than it is worth and knowing their cash reserves have only 8 weeks left to go to keep the business afloat.
Pretty safe to say this will be in administration around September.
I see this as good news and very similar to what Ted Baker did just a few months ago, initially the news increased Ted Baker's share price by 40% shortly after the announcement. Although the Ted Baker SP has fallen back since and is quite volatile at present, I would expect to see an opportunity of a 20% to 40% lift in Topps SP forthcoming.
GLA
This share price should be higher, the buys have outweighed the sells for the last 3 weeks considerably. Topps is one of few retail stocks that hasn't had a decent second lift from initial crisis lows.
A fair value right now would be 45p wouldn't surprise me if there is another RNS in the next few weeks with another fund taking a stake, maybe this is when we will see a fast progression to 45p
GLA
Highly unlikely Mike Ashley will bid, he can get it for next to nothing in a few months when it runs out of cash.
Stephen Marks had a bid in January at 41p for the business and turned it down, failing to disclose this to shareholders, by using his 40% holding to his advantage.
The value of most long term holders is now worth nothing, I think seeing the brand go bust and S. Marks losing all his value in the brand would at least give some of the long term shareholders some satisfaction now. (8-12 weeks and game over?)
Rumours in the city, FC may approach Mike Ashley for funding, can not see him agreeing to this. Good chance he will get what he wanted buying the brand out of administration.
Cash burn will come from stock write down in this closed period and contractual rents due. FC have always struggled to renegotiate their rent deals due to them having cash in the bank and being debt free, a frustration which S. Marks has been vocal about.
The only way an attempted takeover of this brand by Mike Ashley can happen will be through him been able to convince WA Capital to sell him their stake, which would have to be at a proposed takeover price.
Possible, knowing WA Capital have sold down some of their shareholding in recent weeks but purposely still holding just over the 3% required by MA. However the bid would have to be at least 25p / £26 Million offer price to get WA Capital to consider a sell off, knowing their purchase price.
I'm not convinced anything is imminent as recent share activity is very low in the view that a serious takeover rumour by MA was out there behind the scenes. Watching with interest - (Stock £29m Cash in bank £6m = £35 million in assets) with a M/cap of £6M indicates this is extremely unvalued.
GLA
The current trades in this share are not active enough to even
My Advice would be to leave BT and move to Barclays.
There is always a danger with business such as Royal Mail, BT etc. that if things become really bad for these companies the government may take ownership to keep them going but offer the bear minimum to share holders to obtain their ownership. Just my opinion but the pension deficit I believe is huge at BT + the loss in sales from live sport, Barclays carries less risk for me.
GL
Love the brand and had plans to buy at £1.30, by chance held off and now looking for an entry point.
82p looks good but i'd suspect the government will close Cinemas at some point, also checked out their booking last weekend and all their sites were empty on the key dates, showing the main films. Clearly their business is already taking a big hit.
My main worry is the high debt the brand has which supported the opening programme, is this too high and does this place the brand at a critical risk, should there be a prolonged absence of trading?
Any professional views welcome?
GLA
People power - you are totally right, however I do agree with previous comments that this will drop further (guess at £1.80 - £1.60) but will recovery although i'd suspect we may have to wait 18 months or so to exceed the £3 again.
The problem now with borders closing is the movement of goods are been held up, which creates 2 major issues for the brand. One holding too much out of season stock to clear in a few months, secondly having to guess how much stock to produce for AW20 / SS21, cut it back too much and growth expectations will be missed, have too much and excessive stock positions could be hard to clear.
Fashion retailers have a major guessing game now in terms of stock positions, which will hit performance hard, if mis planned.
GLA - One of the strongest brands in the industry!
Interesting to see some of the comments on this board this week.
For the genuine holders that may have seen the SP fall considerably in recent weeks and are worried about their paper loss. You do not need to worry and I would advise you use todays prices to top up further, you have one of the best shares to profit significantly once their is a positive correction in the markets.
It is known the damage of the virus as a 4 month impact with what we know so far, strip out 4 months of sales from Fevertree's fundamentals and you still get a potential profit of £10m for the year. The brand as a high cash position and can comfortable ride out 4 months of sales hit hard.
The other advantage Fevertree has is its product doesn't have a sell by date as such, therefore unlike many industries it does not need to write down or write off its stock. The other advantage is Fevertree can quickly hold / reduce production almost instantly in this climate, they do not have to commit too far in advance for their production rates.
I am aware some share trading companies see this share as one of the best for the upturn in terms of returning profit to their portfolios, this share in turn to some degree has been driven down harder than other shares by the MM, so they can gain the profit they are confident in on this share.
Current share holders don't sell, 12 months from now SP around £16 -£18 / 24 months should the US strategy be implemented and high growth rates achieved in the initial period then back to the £25 - £30 SP
GLA
Zkid - They have had the same strategy for 10 years and it hasn't worked in any. This business had £100m in the bank only 8 years ago.
The people in the brand are just sitting it out, easy life no expectations to change from SM. The biggest problem is there is no creativity in the brand to create desirability. The product is shocking, the visuals in their stores is so bad, their instagram posts hardly get any likes, for a established business their likes are less than what a normal personal on instagram gets, its that embarrassing.
For the shareholders, I do hope the brand survives too but you have to be objective in stock holding and the reality is time as already passed and run out for FC, it's just taking its final breaths because the surgeon (S. Marks) isn't qualified to carry out the required procedure. GL.
Harry, it is crazy that Stephen Marks doesn't see the damage he himself is doing to the brand when everyone else does. The level of change in this business is non existent. A start up progresses more in their first 3 years than this brand has in 10 years. Why wouldn't he whilst there is the last bit of cash left go and headhunt the best there is out there and pay the high salary?
This business is in its final year, surely the level of change has to be unprecedented and quickly.
GLA
GLA
I'd suspect Boo share price will hit a high level of volatility in the coming months. knowing that they have been impacted through current events, the danger is any shortfall of any expectations as a key player on AIM, the SP can drop rapidly, has in previously occasions with Boo in the past.
The challenge for this business at present is as a high volume retailer, they will have to take a hit on selling margins now, as this business will build excessive seasonal stock rapidly under the current circumstances and will only have a limited time to sell it before it is out of season and as a value retailer there is not the range in margins possible to avoid a slow down here.
I have been in Boo for many years at 40p exiting at £3.30 recently. I genuinely believe the SP will hit around £2.20 over the next 2 months and I will rebuy at this level.
The good news regards Boo is their cash rich position, which will see them navigate this challenging period and reset themselves in the future to return to the £3+ SP. It's just realistic at present their business will be hit and it will reflect for a period of time in the SP but it will only be a blip.
This brand is heading for administration.
Stephen Marks is doing a great job of almost putting this brand out of its misery. No recognition again in the update around product improvement. The main failure of this brand. No new design team, no new vision, no new CEO , poor social media response. Very poor AW20 range!
Yet it’s the uk tough trading environment that’s the issue . Haha. Deluded beyond belief.