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Steady you are also consistent in your paranoia lol.
FCCN has laid all its cards on the table now, if there is a serious buyer and potential interest from 4 parties, two to three weeks is enough for someone to register an official bid. The current value of the brand is known therefore interested parties will already know if they have the funds available and what they believe is the right offer.
The risk here is if no one registers a bid, guaranteed the SP will then fall to 30p - 40p very quickly.
Stephen Marks will then be the only option of turning the brand around. We all know he is not capable of this, he is also not as engaged with the brand as much as other founders / CEO's are in the same capacity.
I don't think Mike Ashley is a bidder either at this stage, I'm pretty certain Mike Ashley is waiting for no bids and the brand to fall into administration in 18-24 months time.
FCCN will turn profitable this year? Whilst FC believe this is, I would challenge this and I would be pretty certain break even at the very best from what I know.
Positives: A buyer with retail skill makes an other and the brand is reinvigorated, CK / Tommy / Levi all failed brands in the 90's & 00's now strongly relevant. FC has a place here but it needs to be the right owner / creative team.
I hope a bid comes in, That is why I invested but it really is a all cards on the table situation now and it will go one way or the other but ask yourself this:
If you were interested in buying FC surely you would let Stephen Marks continue to run the business for as long as you could, knowing it will only become less valuable. As a bidder you would really only make a bid at this stage knowing someone else is also interested, so you don't run the risk of losing out.
A bid needs to come in the next few weeks - Philip Day, TFG & 2 Hedge funds (U.S & Chinese) are my guesses regards bidders who have looked at the brand in recent weeks.
You say I am not a share holder, maybe some city worker.
I'm someone successful in a certain industry, who also invested in BooHoo at 35p.
A few weeks have passed and no news on a potent bid?
Anyone with any views on this?
The longer there is no news the more inclined I am to think a deal may not be done and the SP will fall significantly. If 4 parties were identified has interested, surely urgency would have been a priority amongst buyers if the interest is genuine and not speculative.
Hopefully we have an update in the next 2 weeks.
I wonder if the press will identify the parties enquiring over the weekend.
Monday's opening share price will be interesting, Panicattack I'd take 80p for my share holding at this moment in time.
I think your estimate of 80p -£1 maybe a good prediction.
At Least this should be an interesting share to watch over the next few weeks after a long period of not much happening.
Any thoughts on how this will play out?
Crucial we will get an announcement pre Christmas of potential interest in the brand.
I'd worry if there is no update pre Xmas!
This would play striaght into Mike Ashley's hand, leaving the brands hopes on Stephen Marks making it a success, something he has failed to do in almost a decade with 100m + in cash wasted. I'd guess this is Mike Ashley's thought process, ready to buy the brand for next to nothing in 12 - 18 months.
Fingers crossed a hedge fund steps in
GLH
An exceptionally poor performance, confirming out of date leadership across the business.
Red flags:
Margins are a major concern here, achieving the same levels of pure play "value" retailers such as Boohoo etc? Whilst wholesale is stated as the reason, reality is the product offering & design is undesirable, retail margins should be counteracting wholesale margin and delivering north of 55% minimum combined.
Drop in retail LFL's but "no mention" of online growth in the results, if the brand was moving forward at the pace of competitors the retail LFL decline would have been counteracted by a growth in online sales, demonstrating the switch to were the industry growth remains.
Wholesale performance will come under pressure if brand partners own performances slow as expected.
I felt todays update was the most important update in recent times and one were progress should have been delivered, especially with so many positive factors in retail in terms of the brands that are achieving great success.
I am invested here but today's results are a deal breaker and one were at the right price I will look to exit asap.
Recently visited the Oxford St store during London fashion week and it was extremely poor in the brands commercial choices during such an important period for the fashion industry.
Good Luck all holders, I feel if Toast had not been sold recently this brand would be entering the critical retail list today.
Licensing no new business in 6 months? Again a reflection of the brands poor desirability.
Hi Chequemate. I'd assume this is due to the House of Fraser exposure. FC are exposed more than most brands as they trade across most sites, even the lower graded sites that most other premium brands don't. FC's retail business makes a big loss. Concessions would be their only profitable retail avenue, now they have sold Toast. I think FC were due to achieve a £900k profit for the 2018/19 FY (Inc Wholesale & Licensing) but this looks challenging now and if trade is not performing on the LFL's this season break even at best is on the cards. I notice you have been on some other boards in the past on shares I have followed, seems like most share prices are too high at the moment to buy in to.
I wonder if there is a sell off / offer been discussed on their Great Plains business? This would be a greater possibility than an offer for the FC brand at this stage. An offer on the brand would have to be disclosed more promptly, is an interested buyer in the Great Plains business buying into FC shares behind the scenes after the toast sell off? Interesting the share price hasn't moved on these volumes today.
I�ve tracked this company and share price for a few years now and see the sp remaining volatile, a good company to trade in and out of on the drops. All stocks in mobile payment tech have had extreme movement in share price. If Bango can establish itself as a main player then a surge is possible. I watched monitise rise from 8p to 80p only to crash back to 2p and be delisted. High risk at this price imho. I don�t know how many of you that mention IC rate their views? From my experience their tips are often poor at best, I don�t think they are credible in the industry.
Great to see positive posts on this board and a strong view this stock is undervalued. I have seen VM Money tipped by many for 2018. Agree with earlier comments regards a takeover unlikely but a share price of �3.50 / �4 during 2018 in my view very realistic. Virgin is hopefully continuing to gain market share through its headline best value introductory offers / rates . Gla
Hi Dalooks, almost thought this board had died with the SP lol. Various brands esp premium / luxury players have hit high single / low double digit growth this year, figures not achieved for many years. Marketing / It initiatives driving growth in the winners. Fc has suffered due to remaining a traditional retailer failing to initiate or invest in this area to drive its retail division, remaining stagnated in trying to reduce costs as a priority over investment that is driving competitors growth. Low � as attracted tourists with london trade strong, mortgage rates remain at historic lows, good seasonal weather etc all positive retail drivers. Poor performers have been retailers who have not reviewed their large retail trading footage whilst also lacking innovation in customer engagement, new look, debs, hof - none a surprise and deserving of their failures. March update I guess will be no thrills ?
Hi Dalooks, almost thought this board had died with the SP lol. Various brands esp premium / luxury players have hit high single / low double digit growth this year, figures not achieved for many years. Marketing / It initiatives driving growth in the winners. Fc has suffered due to remaining a traditional retailer failing to initiate or invest in this area to drive its retail division, remaining stagnated in trying to reduce costs as a priority over investment that is driving competitors growth. Low � as attracted tourists with london trade strong, mortgage rates remain at historic lows, good seasonal weather etc all positive retail drivers. Poor performers have been retailers who have not reviewed their large retail trading footage whilst also lacking innovation in customer engagement, new look, debs, hof - none a surprise and deserving of their failures. I�d predict Fc at level lol come March update, March update? Level LFL and costs reduced ?
I think it�s fair to say that retail has had one of its best periods in a decade this year. What this has done is defined the brands capable of innovating their business to a very lucrative market and highlighted those brands that have outdated management. FC�s lack of ability not only to make profit but more concerning in the last twelve months is their inability to achieve sales growth, I�d suspect this is now the greater concern for investors and impacting the Sp
Hi Dalooks I wonder how the market will react? Luke warm update for me. Disappointing non executive appointments, considering all the talent out there of brands which have grown quickly in the retail & marketing space in the past few years, I feel this is a missed opportunity, Stephen Marks playing it safe? or showing how out of touch he is with todays industry? I worry the brand can not achieve sales growth in their retail division and with costs continuing upwards a much higher rate of growth is required to give confidence.
Hi Dalooks - I've not been in a FC for a while but keep an eye on their website regards product offering and social media regards their customer engagement activity. I'd love to be surprised tomorrow as I also have a reasonable but reduced holding in FC. Let's see what the update brings, I'd take your 50p estimate tomorrow should the market respond well. Best wishes on the investment, Fc share price as been stale for far too long.
House broker Numis forecast UK retail LFL sales up 2.5% and expects a first-half pre-tax loss in the region of £6.5m versus £7.9m last time, building towards a full year forecast that implies a £2.2m reduction in pre-tax losses. Looks like slow, if little progress Dalooks, if Numis are correct in their forecast. I was estimating roughly flat retail sales with a small growth in wholesale against weak comparatives. I still believe Mike Ashley is prepared to sit on a 27% investment and purchase Fc for around 25 to 30 million in 18 to 24 months as the brand fails.
Yes- mortgage approvals falling V Ly in the housing market. VM is predominantly a mortgage and credit card bank only. Hope this helps
Mike Ashley only needs another 3% to be able to launch an official takeover bid. Not sure if any more activist investors are holding after the sell off by Gatemoor and otk? Fc not announcing a trading update for the season, only confirms poor trade from experience of how the brand reports performance. In a season where most retailers are driving good profit off the back of a perfect season. I'd personally happily sell out at 60p a share, valuing the business at 58m compared to S. Marks £100m valuation. Will Ashley continue to hold knowing S.Marks isn't capable of turning the business around and snap up the in 2 years for next to nothing? Thoughts anyone ?
NKOTB - Reference to you raising the value in someone selling just 9 shares. I have read on other boards that low unit shares traded in anything in single unit, is believed by some to be code from market markers that significant news / change in Sp is immenent. Not sure how true therory is but like you state there is no value in 9 units sold. Not sure if anyone else as come across this therory and experienced movement in sp in the following days ?
No not for a while. I'd assume the recent increase in volumes is on the back of last weeks ultimatum by Gatemore. Some investors will probably feel there is a very realistic chance of Gatemore selling their 8% stake within the near future and Mike Ashley potentially increasing his holding, to lift the SP over the short term.
Stephen Marks stated in the financial results that the new season had got off to a strong start? FC now have a 30% off event? The weather as been perfect for retailers this season. Common FC tactics again reporting a strong start to a season without stating any supporting numbers, only to come to the end of the season and see no progress. Same old story, same old board.