Member Info for RickSanchez

Double the current market cap? Hardly 'Cloud cuckoo land' That phrase sounds more like it belongs in a children's story than a serious adult discussion.

Jeff's outlandish revenue projections, claiming a whopping £559 million from just three contracts, two of which are still mere whispers, borders on the absurd. ITM Power, a company notoriously tight-lipped about its financials, suddenly becomes an open book for Jeff, who miraculously possesses precise figures for deals still hanging in the balance. Yet you find these numbers to not come from "Cloud cuckoo land"

This came from ITM's recent trading update: Less than three weeks ago.

Revenue expected between £18 million and £22 million

Adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of £32 million to £36 million (far from any profits)

Net cash at year-end in the range of £170 million to £180 million (33-23 million less than today). In four months from now!

These underwhelming figures underscore the stark reality of ITM's shareholder value deterioration. Given their dismal track record and the minuscule scale of their AIM listing against industry giants, a £400 million acquisition price remains entirely justifiable. This valuation reflects the desperate need for a fresh approach and the untapped potential that a larger, more experienced entity could unlock.

Take these off the table. Pure Speculation cannot be counted.

50MW feed (if FID is approved, £43M in 2027),

500MW (waiting on FID, £430M on books in 2028).

Where did you come up with this figure? ITM has not disclosed anything, another will guess?

Shell (finishing 2026, £86M)

Disregard speculative earnings projections. A compelling acquisition offer for ITM, such as a 400 million pound bid translating to 70 pence per share, would likely be met with serious consideration and potentially accepted.

I've been closely monitoring this stock since their recent financial updates. While I've been cautious about investing in UK equities lately, this company's current price appears to be fully priced in from recent events.

A combination of factors could drive a recovery:

Positive Bank of England (BOE) announcements: More favorable monetary policy decisions next year could significantly improve the overall market sentiment.

Stronger future contract announcements: The company's next update should provide clarity on future contracts, which could boost investor confidence.

Share buy-backs: Ongoing share buy-backs demonstrate the company's commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

While a price closer to the 600 mark might offer a more attractive entry point, news dependant, 650 is also attractive.

By the end of 2023, China had already achieved 15GW of green hydrogen electrolysis capacity. This significantly surpasses the UK's ambitious target of 10GW by 2030. It's perplexing that some experts seem reluctant to acknowledge this reality.

Looking ahead to 2030, China's electrolyzer capacity could reach a staggering 50GW, with over 55% already operational or having secured funding (Final Investment Decision). This trajectory positions China as the dominant force in global hydrogen production and technology.

China is poised to become the leading exporter of electrolyzers, capturing over 95% of the global market share by 2035. This will primarily serve markets in Central and South America, the Middle East, and other Asian regions.

Europe so far will allow 20% for Chinese electrolyser import, ITM faces intense competition for the remaining 80%. Their attempts to penetrate the US market have been unsuccessful, leaving them heavily reliant on the European market, there is not a chance in hell they will compete with China outside of Europe.

Don't take my word for it: https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/china-on-course-to-greatly-exceed-its-2025-green-hydrogen-production-target/2-1-1753384

https://renewablesnow.com/news/chinas-electrolyser-manufacturing-capacity-may-hit-50-gw-by-2030-iea-873198/

Fair enough.

That's three years away cureboy. Enjoy waiting for that.

I can agree with Peel Hunt's assessment. ITM aligns perfectly with the profile of an attractive takeover target. This is part of my risk assessment. Shareholders should realistically anticipate an acquisition, to rule this out is ludicrous. At best, a price between 70p and 80p per share. This represents the most optimistic outcome. However, if the current share price persists, a more probable scenario would involve an offer closer to 50p. And roll in gestapo leader JeffMills (97.2% Comments on ITM, 242 p/m) and his disciples / alter egos.

As for being burned, not yet but it's a small holding so if it's gone it's gone, sorry to let you all down but I actually just enjoy delivering a reality check, no matter the backlash, even if one sensible soul sees the logic in a basic risk assessment then it is a victory.

This is positive news, Michael, but let's not overhype it. There's a lot of unnecessary excitement here. The SP reaction accurately reflects a mere FEED announcement, not an FID.

Regarding risk management, it's blatantly obvious that many here have set an alarmingly low bar. You're essentially deluding yourselves, believing ITM faces no threats, no competition, and enjoys absolute dominance of the hydrogen market with a guaranteed path to limitless profits. Correctly pointed out, this FEED is not necessarily exclusive to ITM for all we know as we have no idea who it is for to find out more.

Yet, the reality is stark: not a single broker, not a single institutional investment firm, has deemed ITM worthy of a single share purchase. This glaring market indifference speaks volumes about the disconnect between your rosy projections and the cold, hard truth.

Unlike the rampers here I have already stated the news is positive. Now they are acting like they just won the lottery. They're multiplying the sale of 10 Neptune units in their heads and thinking it's a cash cow. It's not a sale, it's a consultancy fee. And of course, ITM isn't telling us how much it actually is. ITM never want shareholders to know how much money they are making.

Well pointed out TheRiflemans. Hence the market reaction.

Jeff, once again you demonstrate a profound lack of comprehension. Europe's strategic interest also lies in securing access to affordable hydrogen. China's competitive advantage in electrolyser manufacturing presents a unique opportunity for Europe to leverage its position as a hydrogen consumer. You posted a wonderful article yesterday to confirm this.

Unlike some here, it is good to see todays RNS, that is a positive.

Jeff, to foster a productive discussion, could you please refrain from defensiveness? Let's engage in a meaningful exchange of views.

Shell, Linde, and RWE are not electrolyzer manufacturers. It's inaccurate to include their market caps in ITM's relatively small fundraising of $200 million (from a share placement, not earned profits). The true competitors are the established manufacturers with substantial resources – the $74 billion in market cap belongs to them. Acknowledging this is crucial for any informed investment decision.

These are just six major players. It seems you primarily focus on positive ITM news, which is understandable. However, to gain a balanced perspective, I urge you to investigate the activities of your competitors. They are actively pursuing significant deals and are still in the early stages of their growth.

Laurie, look at Jeffs past posts (230 out of 241 in the last 30 days) solely focused on ITM, it's evident you hold a strong bias. Regarding your views on alkaline electrolysers, Nucera is demonstrating success with this technology, as Jeff pointed out. Also, if you underestimate the threat from China, I encourage further research. Do you want ITM competing globally or solely within Europe?

Given Europe's fund to support green hydrogen purchases from anywhere in the world, are you not concerned about those potential sales coming from China?

Blindly fixating on positive news about a single company is a recipe for disaster. Any investor who fails to rigorously analyse the competitive landscape is simply gambling, not investing. The green hydrogen sector, if it achieves the projected growth by 2030, will be a fiercely contested arena. These competitors will be ravenous, clawing for every bit of market share. At this juncture, the most likely scenario for ITM appears to be an acquisition.

With an estimated 150 hydrogen electrolyser manufacturers around the world — including more than 100 in China alone — and a highly competitive environment, there will simply not be enough room in the market for all of them.

Electric Hydrogen,Market Cap $750mln https://eh2.com/news/ - They're aggressive players in a market ripe for disruption.

Cummins Inc, Market CAP $48bn offering PEM and alkaline electrolyzers https://www.cummins.com/sites/default/files/2023-10/electrolyzer-brochure.pdf that's quite the bank balance and industry experience to be a winner

Nel, Market Cap $5.2 bn, https://nelhydrogen.com/ - Decades of industry experience, also noted a €5mln electrolyser, looks like ITM's is not the only one at that price point

Thyssenkrupp Nucera, market cap $1.3 bn, https://www.thyssenkrupp-nucera.com/ as we already know they have been doing very well, of course they have a large piggy bank and 60 years of experience

LONGi Green Energy Technology, market cap $17.2 bn, as stated 2/3s of all electrolyser manufacturing comes from China, and look at the money they get to play with.

Plug Power, Inc. (USA), market cap $2 bn, of course we all know about good old Plug.

Out of a staggering 150 manufacturers, I've meticulously selected just 6. These aren't minnows; they're behemoths, boasting a combined market cap of a staggering $74 billion. Now, forget the other 143 – they're irrelevant.

Consider this: ITM, despite all the green hydrogen hype, sits at a 5-year low market cap. Every day, groundbreaking news floods the industry, yet ITM remains stagnant. They have $200 million in the bank, a few minor victories, but it's a drop in the ocean compared to these giants.

What chance does ITM truly have against this onslaught? This inability to gain traction, is precisely why you should disregard the noise and focus on the real players.

Oh, Ekimp, don't you fret about the share price languishing in the abyss! Our esteemed leader, Jeff, has graciously bestowed upon us a prophecy – next week, it shall ascend to the majestic heights of the 40s! Apparently, this divine knowledge comes from his "important friends" who, in their infinite wisdom, "work in the industry." So rest easy, my friend, for soon we shall be showering Jeff with praise for his unparalleled wisdom, his expert market insights, his… shall we say… god-like omniscience. Don't forget to thank him and tell your friends.

ITM is my last UK stock holding hence why you won't see any more comments elsewhere. NYSE has been more kind to me. I can't speak for JZ, but you came across very poorly. Your refusal to acknowledge Jeff's posting history (worse than mine or JZ's by your standards) is suspicious. It appears you have been cut from the same cloth, or are the same cloth.

Dibs61 Premium Member: But not premium content delivery, in the last 30 days, the ITM comments go as follows:

Me:38

jzchat:74

Jeff aka ITM Guru: 239

Besides 11 other posts on AFC (lol) and Boohoo, Jeff hasn't posted anywhere else. That makes him the undisputed champion. If you do not see this as ramping then what else would convince you. If you're rooting for him, I wonder about your judgment too. You clearly haven't been doing your homework.

Troublesome that was a copy and paste but still made me laugh as well. Well spotted ;)