Member Info for RickSanchez

Well done. My experience is far better now that I cannot see his fortune cookie replies. And having to deal with his inability to read.

Jzchat here it is

https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-State-of-the-European-Hydrogen-Market-Report.pdf

As for trouble, I suggest blocking him? He is likely a double account of Jeff, and if not, he adds very little meaningful discussion to this chat. He couldn't even read ITM's trading update, indicating his level of experience.

From the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies.

"China has emerged as the main electrolyser manufacturer (it accounts for around 70 per cent

of planned electrolyser manufacturing capacity globally). The cost of Chinese electrolysers is around

$600/kW, while estimated costs in Europe are roughly $2,500/kW 64. Export of Chinese electrolysers could

represent a challenge for the EU's electrolyser manufacturing sector. " China currently leads Europe and the US on electrolysis projects under construction.

Jzchat, Agreed.

Jeff, understand this: China is poised to dominate the green hydrogen market. They have a significant technological lead in production, which will translate into significantly lower production costs. This isn't about some western idea outsourcing to Chine; it's about China developing a strategic advantage producing a identical product. Their ability to produce the cheapest green hydrogen will give them a decisive edge in this emerging sector. Focus on the data, not my opinion.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2024/hydrogen-production

Jeff to put in in very simply terms for you. Firstly I know you are reading my posts, your responses here are very indicative of that. Secondly, in simple terms, it is not about who has the best electrolysers, the 'race' is about producing the most green hydrogen quickly and cheaply. That is what will attract buyers and that's the bottom line. China will win this race, dominating the market. Comprende?

Jzchat, While India possesses significant potential to become a major player in the green hydrogen sector, it is not quite happening yet. China certainly currently dominates the market. Their manufacturing capacity dwarfs that of Europe. However, it's crucial to acknowledge the emergence of Neom, Saudi Arabia, as a formidable contender.

China's dominance in electrolysers and H2 production is undeniable, much like other industries there. Well done for pointing out the fact that most readers on here are consumers of many goods originating from the east, yet they have a problem with electrolysers, I can see the hypocrisy in that. European restrictions on Chinese-made electrolysers are not necessarily due to inferior technology, but rather stem from concerns about potential market disruption and the suppression of domestic competition. But as I said many times before, nobody has talked about the purchase of green hydrogen from China, merely the purchase of equipment.

Trump will do what every he can to cripple what the Biden administration tried to achieve, especially cutting funds from the IRA. Trump will crush green energy. He has already made this very clear.

Or another dud launch.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-03/biden-loosens-strict-rules-for-hydrogen-subsidies-worth-billions

"But the US Chamber of Commerce said the new rules fell short and noted the incoming Trump administration would have the opportunity to change them."

"While the rule provides some of the additional flexibility we sought, especially in recognizing the importance of natural gas as a cornerstone of a hydrogen economy, we believe that it still will leave billions of dollars of announced projects in limbo,” said Marty Durbin, president of the Chamber’s Global Energy Institute."

"the deep green environmental group Earthjustice criticized the rules for allowing “significant loopholes for dirty hydrogen producers to enjoy the benefits of this important climate program.”

Wig1 exactly how I feel reading some tripe on here as well. Equally frustrating from my side. When that stops I will stop. I am not a short seller, merely dousing the flames of rampers.

Looks like another non-event. While it seems like good news at the surface, underlying risks persist, clearly outlined in the FT article. What have I been saying all along, this....

"The wait for the tax credit rules, weak demand and threats from Trump to dismantle the IRA have all undermined confidence in the clean hydrogen industry in the past year, prompting a sell-off in shares and developers to pause projects.

In October, Plug Power confirmed to the Financial Times that it paused development on its $290mn green hydrogen project in New York, set to be the largest in North America. Marathon Petroleum, Fortescue and CNX have also stalled or pulled out of commitments to Biden’s $7bn hydrogen hubs programme. 

“These tax credits do a lot to subsidise the production of hydrogen, but there also needs to be a demand for that hydrogen. Someone has to want to use it,” said Aaron Bergman, a fellow at non-profit group Resources for the Future. Last year, consultancy BloombergNEF estimated that only 6 per cent of US hydrogen projects have secured binding supply agreements."

https://www.ft.com/content/38c519c3-1fe9-4d2c-9d8c-6dd158ab35aa

Hold your horses, Jeff. The news isn't out yet. Don't get ahead of yourself and remember your dismal track record making predictions. 100% Failure rate.

Laurie, ITM, "front of the queue". Clearly the markets disagree with you young chap.

This stock's five-year low isn't an accident. Positive news bounces off it like rubber balls, one ofter the other – a sure sign something's fundamentally wrong. The stock price is a brutally honest reflection of the risk, and that is why ITM cannot attract buyers. For years now the regulars here are selling the idea that ITM is on the cusp of booming, yet that day never arrived. This narrative of being 'on the cusp' is wearing thin. It's time to face the facts. Green hydrogen (H2) is too expensive and will be for a very long time. On top of that, production costs in Europe will never be able to compete with those of countries like China and India. It's that simple. We are on the cusp of nothing more than a drop in the ocean of the global energy markets. Jeff hoping for 40p by the end of this week again, ITM's last fundraise was at ten times that amount. Those investors got ruined, so who cares about 40p.

"We overestimated how much hydrogen the world would need to reach net zero': analysts admit

BNEF and the ETC anticipate that more sectors will decarbonise via electrification rather than H2, as costs are falling much faster"

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/we-overestimated-how-much-hydrogen-the-world-would-need-to-reach-net-zero-analysts-admit/2-1-1728262

Low supply of H2 Cars = Low Demand for refuelling stations.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/california-government-agency-slashes-2030-forecast-for-hydrogen-vehicles-by-two-thirds/2-1-1759598

Why are we talking about the USA. Donald Trump demonstrates a strong preference for fossil fuels. Given this, it's reasonable to anticipate a shift in policy priorities away from green energy once he assumes office. This could have detrimental consequences for the renewable energy sector.

My previous mention of tech giants like Meta, Amazon, and Google investing in nuclear energy highlighted its potential as a highly reliable 24/7 power source for their energy-intensive data centers. Given the immense and constant energy demands of these facilities, I believe it's unlikely that significant surplus energy would be available for hydrogen production.

Jeff has relied on Motley Fool, a source widely regarded as unreliable, to bolster his claim of a 40p price target. Yet, he deliberately ignored a critical piece of information from the very same article that directly challenges his prediction. This cherry-picking of information is a clear indication of his biased viewpoint. Here is the rest of the article that Jeff is happy rely upon.

"But the final amount has yet to be determined. Reuters notes that the amount of the credit "will determine whether it's commercially viable to invest in hydrogen production."

That makes this decision kind of a life or death issue for Plug Power. Treasury's decision may arrive by Friday.

Seems like a "red or black" trade to me.

For those of you who do not have access to the full article and would like to know more, I will gladly copy and paste it here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-23/green-hydrogen-prices-will-remain-stubbornly-high-for-decades?embedded-checkout=true

Troublesome you offer nothing here. filtered

If you want me to post the full article here say so. Worth a read and can explain one of the reasons ITM cannot deliver to the shareholders and why Helikon will not close their short. They are not done making money from it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-23/green-hydrogen-prices-will-remain-stubbornly-high-for-decades?embedded-checkout=true

"The pullback on hydrogen began in earnest last year, and investors see it continuing in 2025. Countries scaled back their ambitions to produce and use the gas, which can be carbon-free if it’s produced using water and renewable energy.

BNEF recently revised its forecast to find the gas will remain stubbornly expensive over the coming decades, costing as much as $5.09 per kilogram. That’s why “we continue to see some of the challenges in the sector,” said Dhanpal Jhaveri, chief executive officer of Eversource Capital.

In short, hydrogen demand “did not catch up with the hype” in 2024, said Yeo. This year could see the bubble deflate even further."