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Someone’s opinion I’ve seen and read / ex hedge fund manager
Indonesia has since the mid 1980’s been the World’s largest supplier of mined #tin – peaking at 145,000 tpa and doing 78,000t in 2023. A massive fraud investigation is underway, looking at an estimated $13bn pilfered form state owned mining company PT Timah.
No #tin has been exported from Indonesia in 2024 and export quotas look set to be limited to only 44,000 tpa.
The DRC produces an estimated 20,000 tpa of #tin – 12,000t from Bisie and 8,000 top of artisanal production. Bisie is imminently set to go to 20,000 tpa from the opening of Mpama South.
However an insurgency by M23 rebels to the West of Goma has displaced 1M Congolese with the rebels now controlling the main supply route to Bisie. The effect on #tin supply is unclear.
#Tin is consumed in tens of billions of end use consumer items in minute quantities – as a coating in a tin can, on a printed circuit board, as a stabiliser in every piece of PVC.
#Tin's price inelasticity of demand is extremely high. E.g. an iPhone contains today about US$0.04 of tin. There is no tin price where iPhone sales are affected.
New demand for #tin is coming from solar – approximately 70t is consumed per GW of installed capacity. This accounted for 28,000t in 2023, or about 7% of total demand.
During Covid demand for consumer electronics went parabolic, with the World running out of some chips and products. This drove the #tin price to $50,000 per t.
Post Covid we saw a big drop in #tin demand and destock as consumers had got considerably ahead of average replacement times. From a demand perspective it looks increasingly like a destocked supply chain is seeing resurgent demand.
Supply is under threat like never before. Supply chains are destocked. There are almost no new projects. Demand is highly inelastic. I expect to see a peak on this #tin bull market above $100,000 before the end of 2025.
Supply is under threat like never before. Supply chains are destocked. There are almost no new projects. Demand is highly inelastic. I expect to see a peak on this #tin bull market above $100,000 before the end of 2025.
#Tin – the "forgotten metal" of the #energy transition according to Andy Home of @Reuters. Just like Andy says, tin is crucial for a sustainable future, yet often overlooked. Even more concerning, #LME tin warehouse inventories are plunging, mirroring the depletion of strategic stockpiles by major countries like the U.S. and #Europe in recent decades. This, coupled with supply disruptions in major producers like #Indonesia and #Myanmar, is creating a perfect storm for a tin supply crunch.
Definitely looking better Allan . 30,000k by the summer and bringing production costs way down and being a multi metal producer this is really going to be hard to ignore . The numbers/ revenue will be something else in due course.
Tin rally continues today , saw this post by a investor and is definitely worth posting in here
And meanwhile @Andrada_Mining @AnthonyViljoen is increasing production apace and bringing down production costs nicely. Making money on the tin and tantalum. All the test work via the pilot plant has been done, the lithium line will be integrated over the next year and will produce circa 30 000 t p/a of petalite (sells at $1500). Capex to be funded by the partner process which, according to the recent RNS, is coming to a conclusion before too long. Plenty of cash in the bank to get things started. The cost savings on opex via the integration will make them one of the lowest cost lithium concentrate suppliers on the planet. If management follow through here as planned some great returns to be made here for the patient. Brokers have a 33p target.
This is where patience pays . Been adding on the quiet days to my position . I personally see next week getting abit more interesting with investors taking advantage of ISAs . This is becoming a very good operational company ran by a good CEO and team .
Very encouraging to see .
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/the-country-s-largest-lithium-mine-unveils-bumper-6-3b-profit-20240401-p5fgj8