Member Info for RichTheNewbie

What would you do?
Try to sell your giant holding all on one day at the same time as everyone else or try to sell it in chunks beforehand?
Which do you think would be more likely to result in a significantly lower price for your shares?
I think you're living in cloud-cuckoo land if you think everyone will wait till the last minute!
Can't remember if it was on here or elsewhere but I recently read an article about buying relegated shares because they often have a bounce afterwards. This is entirely logical as selling pressure happens PRIOR to their exit and is then gone once they've exited as it's not a predictable event and therefore gets priced in ahead of time.

It's always the same when you're buying a share that's been falling.

There's always some people who're angry, have lost money, and will say everything is rubbish and there's no hope.

In fact it's often reassuring when I'm buying if there's lots of people negative about it (whilst I'm sure I'd call myself a contrarian investor exactly - although the parents definitely called me contrary in my youth :p).

It's the exact same reason I wouldn't touch Tesla with a 2000 mile long bargepole (if everyone has already bought it who's left to buy it - and what happens when some of them want to actually sell). Very few people want to touch something in a long downtrend but everyone wants to buy something that's in recovery mode after one. Just as a downtrend is self fulfilling so is a recovery uptrend if/when it happens.

Personally I think 100p coincides with the value turning too obviously good and is a nice psychological round level. I think this is prime for a decent recovery BUT is dependent on the FTSE being in a good mood as there are hardly any shares not dragged down by the index on down days at the moment. It's bargains galore...but I think this is amongst the safer bets to have in your bargain basket for when things turn better.

Take some viagra next time. Then you might manage a decent exposure ;)

Thanks both ;)

A dense question probably - the article (I don't think) doesn't mention why the reason for the fall in the deficit. What's the driver?

Hah. That's a good one. I might start saying I'll be in the office eminently when asked. If someone corrects me I'll inform them that I did indeed actually mean eminently ;)

I've just bought several more batches of BT.
If there's going to be a home-working revolution and blood in the streets (metaphorically speaking) they're going to be more critical than ever.
Time to buy and hold companies like this imo.

Even if this got taken over for 50p (which I think there's virtually zero chance of) small investors still wouldn't be burnt because that's not massively different to the current price.
In fact if there is a hostile takeover it would probably take an offer of at least 100p to be accepted by enough investors (many would argue considerably more).
So the downside would seem pretty tiny in comparison to upside if a takeover bid was launched.

Poleaxe - that doesn't really say much since the FTSE100 has dropped 300 points since 19th June 2020.
Most companies would be lower, so it's unsurprising the demoted companies are lower, since most companies are lower.
And two of the companies promoted are up barely anything (GVC/HSV).
If anything the performance of most of them shows there's not been a massive impact following dropping out of (or going into) the FTSE with the only strong performer being AVST (not surprising given tech is flavour of the month along with bios).

A fantastic article on BoJo whilst we're being a bit political:
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/28/boris-johnson-the-anti-prime-minister/

I think some people misunderstood the stuff from earlier in the year. I don't think SNG were ever going to go out and manufacture millions of doses. They simply had to start investigating how to gear up their supply chain in the event they did need to supply a lot of the drug. Rather than trying to fill a warehouse with it (which might never be used).
I.e. - they'd probably talk to their existing supplier and talk to them about how much they could produce, in what space of time, if large quantities were needed. What it would cost to have that expanded. What other suppliers could produce if their existing supplier (Rentschler I believe) couldn't realistically produce or ramp up to meet the kind of potential demand and so on and so forth.
Planning for a success case doesn't necessarily mean committing all your money to it (I mean they MIGHT have bought/stockpiled millions of doses - but I'd be surprised if they had - and instead just worked on making ramping up (more) feasible if needed).

Not strictly true John...they've spent over a decade on it but only switched to COPD relatively recently after issues with the results in Asthma in the AZN trial. Although the dropping of it for Asthma is/was questionable imo.

I think they simply look at what gets most read/talked about and keep writing about it.
I think it's pretty questionable practice though to basically pick the most talked about shares and then pretty much always say you should invest in something else they're pushing. Not sure I've ever seen them not finish an article with a conclusion "but we think you should buy this instead".
It's pretty deceptive in my view.

_Mr_Big - I held KEFI for a while until it became clear that the warnings from some posters were correct and imminently always remained imminently! Shame as their assets looked very promising!

ChrisToffer - probably. I'm trying not to be too negative (I know people will get upset) but you could spin this many ways (Obviously they'll say things are going well and getting good support from UK agencies, hence the expanded trial, but the question is if there's any kind of deal, big or small, anywhere near completion, hence being slow with the release, or more negatively, you might say they were hoping to raise a bit of cash to fund it, and the deals aren't as close, and waiting to see what happens in these expanded trials). Could be any of these things or play out differently in another way.

You can never guarantee anything but many times I've seen companies forced to rush out a statement (RNS) once it becomes clear material news is circulating from another source. I wouldn't be surprised if the NOMAD is telling them now that they've got to update the market ASAP with details of the new hospital trial - if that's what it is.

The price CW25? (sorry - just a joke - before someone else said it)

They essentially are P3's in all but name.
The positive is they're clearly still getting support for this and things are being progressed.
The negative is Feb21 is quite a way away and people will fear that's too long and someone might get there first with something in the meantime (or need a raising to fund the work).
No idea how the price will play out now. Suspect it will be down to the big boys as usual.

The end date has been changed to Feb 2021.

Yeah it looks like they're running another hospital trial alongside the home trial. Seems RNS worthy to me.