Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Last year on the 16th November kenmare offered a vote on buying back nearly 15 million of its shares at £4.17 each price worked on average share price over the previous 2 weeks we'll if they would repeat this this year the same way the price would be around £4.23 which is the average share price for the last 2 weeks note I will not be selling at that price and I didn't last year which was over subscribe meaning the big holders did. but it will give me a increased dividend payment if they do
I'm expecting around a 12 million shares buy back costing around 60 million USD don't think they will do anymore as I think they're will want to half the remaining to 30 million and next year I won't aspect a buy back has they be putting a 100 million aside ready for the mine move in 2024 but if the board decide to do a buyback of this scale it will show everyone the confidence they have in the future profit making of the company or maybe they will take amore conservative approach
Saga...
If you do that you will have to pay stamp duty
Irish is 1% on the full share price when you buy them back which would work out at 4.2p a share plus commission were Irish dividend tax was around 2.5p a share if you just kept the share
Correction
Based On 70 million shares not 75million
At the beginning of 2022 the CEO set 3targets..
..1.. target 25%profit paid out in dividends
..2reduce debt ..note he said reduce didn't say be debt free
..3..if the share price low do a share buyback..
.......
Last year kenmare brought back14.8million at price of 81.6 million usd if they brought the same this year it would only cost 65.2million price based on average 10day average of last 10 days £4 making them 15 million cheaper than last year also due to US dollar strength
Not saying they will do this amount but if they did it would increase the April dividend by 20% ..
..example only..
2022 profits 164usd
.....25%profit 41 million usd minus 11million dividend paid in October 2022 leaving 30million usd to be paid in 2023
30000000 USD dividend by 85million share would give us 35.3 USD per share but would increase to 42.8 USD if the company only had 70million shares
Which would give me a total of48pence per a share dividend and a 12% yield at £4 a share on
the full year based on 75 million shares
Only a example but November could a interesting
Month
Not saying this is what should happen but will be expecting something to come from the top in November
Barney I totally agree prices are softening
after 8qtrs of rises but we should now see decrease of production cost per a ton also as production rises stocks of worldwide tio2 are very low so the market not expecting any major shift down
Prices are up
Production is up
Shipping is up
And are expecting greater things in the final 3 months
Excellent results
I do know tio2 prices went down in china and Thaland 6% in July and demand been lower in Asia
But in August kenmare reported price was holding as there pigment is the most sort of because of its quality so reading between the lines prices haven't dropped below the first 6months average
But I don't know for sure
Hopefully we get over 240 tons shipped in the last quarter and 360tons next QTR now we got both loading ships back
Yes production and shipping update tomorrow 13 October
Yes have to agree added 2000 more today
Can also see a takeover bid coming with the dollar being so strong
It's crazy to think a share like this could be so low would expect to sell these at a 50% gain even without a buyout and to double my money if there's a buyout
CORRECTION
Meaning to say the Top4share holders out vote the rest of us providing they all have the same view and objectives
On the 10/11/21 share price was about 4.03 GBP and the USD was 1.34 to GDP and kenmare had about 110 million shares making the value of the company in USD about 592 million USD
21 sept2022 the market price was about £4.22 with the USD at around 1.135 to the pound X 95 million shares making the company value on sp price only 456 million which is more than 20percent lower than the 10 November last year which was the lowest share price in the last 12 months
The good news is because the USD is so strong it will make our dividend higher also a higher chance of getting a offer from the USA for the company
The big Question is how much would kenmare top shareholders who own more than 50percent of the company sell the company for the board cannot sell if all 4 don't accept the director might be getting old but the investors might be in it for the long haul
What advantages for to hold onto the company
Longer 7% dividend yield on today's share price+if the company does another 10% buyback would give them a 17% return while still holding onto the same proportion of the company which they could sell under the right situation
We all know the company doing well but has the chairman said in the QandA of the webinar it's the investors control the share price not the board
The top 4 shareholders are the dog I'm just the tail
But they are investors and are in it for the money so I'm happy following and collecting my dividend
But just maybe with the dollar being so strong a offer will come to big to refuse even for them big investors
Half a million shares brought today
Expect share price increase very soon
Good zoom meeting today seems slime problem gone a production back to normal and our ships are back in action I the next couple of days
Things are looking good for H2
Totally agree ken
And with 126m tons of finish product which was mined in H1 still sitting on the dock it Would had been another 50million on top of the 62million if one of our ships wasn't in dry dock on its 5year maintenance we would had it in the bank but that will be coming in the bank within the next 6 months
Profits up 30%
Dividend increased 50%
What I'm expecting in tomorrow results
At least 41.4 million profit has 24.1m was paid in dividend and 17.3 m so 41.4 m balance's the books
But also we been told in a RNS that 19 million was paid to the moz government for tax this year not sure if that was calculated into last year's figure or not. So could gain some more there also kenmare have installed a new generator costing about 17 million if they have paid for this in H1 then that could be another 17 million added to the profit as the generator is an asset so worst case 41.4 profit
Best case 76 million but I be happy to take the middle around 58 million after tax
Not completely sure but on there older news reports they're posted Kenmare resources results but haven't posted othere companies results
https://tio2.info/2022/07/26/Titanium-dioxide-market-analysis-July-2022/
Also reports on from davy and peel hunt on directortalk
I searched on Google kenmare resources director talk
Saga i totally understand where you're coming from
But I do agree with obs it those major shareholder s who will make the final decision
But I always believe the company worth at least 1 billion USD when it's dept free £8.80 a share
I'm happy taking the dividend for the next year
For me it's plenty to live on in Asia I personally think there be a share buy back while the SP low buying up at least 10% of the stock then I would expect to get 10£ a share at the end of 2023 which is still 1billion USD but if there were offers this year which was excepted I would be happy
Even more interesting they now raised by another 40p today to7.90 but who would pay them I don't know but be happy to sell mine to them for £ 7.90
But I think it have to be higher for a takeover bid to succeed