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Slowly sinking in why they would look so worried if the new strain is more infectious..

Firstly, the government are aiming to keep cases below the level hospitals can cope with by keeping R0 below 1.
For covid, estimates of R0 are between 2.5 and 3.5.
The levels of lockdown we have are just about keeping R0 around 1 and leaving the economy barely limping along.

To do the same thing for a more infectious virus with higher R0 (measles has R0 of 12-18) could mean much more demanding lockdowns to keep within the limits of the health service. Implications for the economy could be massive and another question is whether the UK population would do what is needed without riots or just ignoring the rules.

Secondly, there is a vaccination program with the aim of achieving herd immunity so we can get on with a more normal life, stop illness and death and get the economy back to life. Ignore for a moment that the concept of herd immunity requires the vaccine to make people immune ie. not able to be infected or pass on the virus, which there is no current evidence the available vaccines will do.

But, Percentage population for herd immunity = 1 - (1/R0).
So, for the current R0 of 2.5-3.5 the figure of around 70% of the population is often cited.
If the virus becomes as infectious as measles, with R0 of 12-18, percentage of population required for herd immunity rises to 92-94%.
This is percentage of population taking a vaccine with 100% efficacy, or 100% of the population if the vaccine has 92-94% efficacy. This would be very hard to achieve in practice.

But this puts into perspective how the AZ vaccine with 62% efficacy from the useful trial data could fall very far short of getting life back to anywhere near normal in terms of social distancing or allowing the economy to get back on track.

On BBC website. Not verbatim, but words to this effect.
No reason to expect the new variant will have got around the vaccine as there is not so much immunity in the population yet.
It is only after people have been vaccinated that there will be selection and new variants could be expected to evade the vaccine.
Doesn't sound as if he thinks Covid is going away!

It is quite a long article, but well written and well worth reading.

I had not understood how many nasty viruses bats could transmit to us and how easily this could happen as their environments change. As well as Sars, Mers we have also had near misses with Hendra and Nipah. Bats transmitted Hendra and Nipah to horses and pigs in Australia and Malaysia. A small group of people were infected from the horses and pigs with 75% mortality. Luckily there was no person to person transmission so no pandemic, but experts are suggesting that Covid is just a warning.
Particularly interesting is that bats can carry these viruses because of their immune systems including high levels of interferons. So suggestions from UN that we need global pandemic preparedness and also that SNG stockpiles could be a key part of that preparedness look very very real.

Link to this articles was in the same Nature Briefing email today, explaining the data we have not yet seen and are to look out for with respect vaccine trials. How things may look far less rosy when we see more than just the headline data.
https://www.wired.com/story/new-vaccine-data-is-coming-watch-out-for-these-3-claims/?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=1639502cf2-briefing-dy-20201208&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-1639502cf2-45765946

Sorry if already posted.
Interesting article on how climate change and our impact on the world is making animals move to new environments and find new hosts to pass their infections to when they get there. Very enlightening and shocking. Seems Anthony Fauchi has been saying this. So more reasons why we will need Synairgen stockpiles.

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/climate-change-risks-infectious-diseases-covid-19-ebola-dengue-1098923/

This looks like and excellent trial to do apart from using injected (?subcutaneous) interferon. Inhaled interferon would probably give it a much better chance of success.
Eleanor Fish has been in discussion with Synairgen, would be great to see this trial done with SNG001.

I went for a flu jab a while ago and my ID was carefully checked.
A bit puzzled, the nurse clarified that people had been coming in claiming to be the person with the appointment (even though the real person was standing a bit behind them in the queue).
Seems vaccine fraud is a thing now. Seemed funny, but could become a problem if there is real 'survival of the fittest' to get precious supplies of vaccine.

So this is contraindicated in people treated with anticoagulants. If this also includes asprin this may be a large number of the elderly most at risk group.

Probably in case of bleeding at the IM injection site.

Just a thought on the figures for the home trial.
We don't and can't know, so all speculation, but:

RM suggested last week they were recruiting one or two a day since mid October, so maybe around 60 recruits by the date of the lecture.
So maybe Stephen Holgate meant 30 synairgen cases (as well as 30 placebo which would be less interesting) had been enrolled.

One of the problems with late stage illness is increased blood clotting, with multiple small clots seen at post mortem in people who die from covid. Asprin is a very good idea to prevent that aspect of covid and is relatively side effect free so could have advantage if given early in hospitalisation to prevent that clotting.

It will not be in the same niche as SNG as a treatment and will not be a competitor for it.

Hold on, when we get approval the world will be our Oyster and we will all make a forTuna, Brill!

Mushy please can we say tartare to this stupid low share price.

Exciting news for the world about vaccines!

These efficacy figures are soon after vaccination. Everyone expects this to wane by next winter and completely unknown how much (if any) protection will remain by then.
Any protection will be used to allow the economy to open up while keeping cases below what the NHS can manage rather than pushing down infections.

I completely expect further waves next winter and probably for years to come. Only question is how bad they will be. If vaccination means that mutations not covered by the vaccine thrive it may be no better than this year. There are already large numbers of mutated strains circulating and will be many more to come. It is only after vaccine roll out that we will see new strains taking hold.

Claims that SNG have 'missed the boat' are absurd.

Sorry if already said..
I am sure Synairgen are aware of this possibility. The nebuliser is used under zoom supervision, so I am sure they check the name on the vial and watch as it is opened and used. They don't design good controlled studies and leave loopholes like this.

Publicity for AIM awards starts next week, with winners announced the following week.
This may raise our profile!
http://www.aim-awards.co.uk/media-room/

Hello BumbleB.
Yes, I am down to my last 315 AFC shares.
Holding was very much more than that in the past, so I am 'out'.
I am watching though. I do see Alkamem as a potential game changer and the solid fuel cell may be if it is at a competitive price.
I may be back in the future. I would be disappointed to find this actually involves another 5 years of testing to increase durability though.
I also just had enough of jam tomorrow as well as all the secrecy. Just felt there was contempt for shareholders who had entrusted the BOD with a great deal of their hard earned. I am sure I don't need to mention a particular name!!

As Klunk is pointing out, the panel date for that grant was in 2019.
The project started in September 2020, with end date March 2014.

Will we need to sing 'Happy Birthday' while squirting mouthwash up our noses and gargling?
Anything that helps, but it will be a challenge..

Very good tweet and interview. Suggesting the Pfizer trial should be allowed to run and follow the protocol, ie do science properly. This is what Synairgen are doing. I suspect vaccine timelines will be much longer when the penny drops that this is needed for approvals. Or, if approvals are rushed through a lot of trust will be lost/people with sense will not take it.

Someone on BBC news just talking about the oxford vaccine. Pointing out that mRNA vaccines have never been used before while the Oxford one is a more tested approach. Saying that everyone thinks the Oxford vaccine will be the first in actual use maybe before the end of winter. Indeed, may take time (and more data) before Pfizer get approvals. So could be February before vaccinations even start.

Yes, sending medication, ethics approval, following people up when they are discharged from hospital would all be complicated for 20 countries. Perhaps with NIHR support and the increasing cases here they have changed the plan.