RE: Power supply contracts3 May 2018 10:59
Yes, as Bumble B says, a model could be to to use the vented hydrogen from the chlor-alkali industry, convert it to electricity and sell it into the grid or to someone else. It is expensive to transport, so would need to be local.
So conversion cost (currently around 10 cents) plus cholor alkali company cut for the hydrogen would need to be more than the price for green energy sold into the grid. We probably still have a way to go for many markets to be profitable.
However, the price for electricity per KWh is very variable. Googling 'price per KWh' suggests the most expensive is on islands where it is expensive imported diesel and can be 50c per KWh or more. There is also the issue of places where the grid is flaky and the price for a reliable supply supplemented by diesel generator backup is high. In these markets it looks very likely we could make a combined solution which would be profitable with what we have. Does require a source of cheap hydrogen.
This also ignores the issue of subsidies which are high in South Korea and seems to be a potential market. Also the value in places where the water produced has an added value. In the middle east this may be high.
Am intrigued by the 'novel hydrogen production methods' alluded to and under discussion. AB said more than once at the AGM that electrolysis is very expensive, so may not be that. There is cracking ammonia and conversion from biogas about, or new catalyst in the press which may in fact be decades from being a commercial product. The price of this hydrogen plus our conversion cost (the lower the better) versus finding a niche where we can make a profit is the key to contracts and sales.
The most exciting option to me seems to be the hydrogen battery. As AB said at the AGM, the price or solar energy can be down to 2 cents per KWh, but this needs to be balanced to provide supply when it is not sunny. There are electrolysis and storage companies eg McPhy which would seem (in my naive understanding of the issue) to make a bolt together solution to making a battery. AB did mention that he had not spoken to McPhy, but am sure there are others. Perhaps whatever 'novel production' may be in the pipeline this will be cheaper and better.
I tried to guestimate the price per KWh for electricity passing through a Tesla battery. Based on the cost alluded to for their Australian installation and a comment that their batteries degrade after 200 cycles I got to about 1 dollar per KWh. This may be very far off the true cost. Does anyone have any idea about this. However, hydrogen batteries might be an area where we can compete on price per KWh.
So, it is all about finding a product and niche where local resources/needs/prices/subsidies mean we can provide something where we can make a profit. I think that AB will be excellent at finding and selling into such niches when (and hopefully it is about now), he is able to tell customers the product works.