Member Info for RichKen

It looks to me, already fully understanding the market for VRFB, that the future for this business looks very good indeed. Energy storage has huge potential:
Industry analysts remain bullish on the global energy storage market growth. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts the sector will receive approximately $620 billion in new investment by 2040 with market growth projections at nearly 900 per cent. between 2017 and 2022. Against this background, VRFB is expected to capture around 18 per cent of a total addressable stationary energy storage market by 2027. This positive sentiment is supported by various intergovernmental organisations including the World Energy Council who view energy storage as “instrumental in the grand energy transition” in a recent report. BNEF expects energy storage to play a key role in enabling solar and wind generation to reach 80 per cent. penetration in certain markets across the world. As such, energy storage installations (excluding pumped hydropower) are expected to reach 2,850GWh by 2040 – a 122-fold increase in capacity from 2018 figures.

Following the merger between redT and Avalon, Invinity will be active across all major energy storage markets including the US, UK, Europe, Australia, South Korea and Canada.

The long term vanadium supply is easy through the partnership with Bushveld Minerals and Vanadium Financing Partnership with BMN was confirmed on the 9 March. The company announced it had concluded this agreement with AIM-listed integrated vanadium producer Bushveld Minerals to create a vanadium financing partnership, which the Invinity intends to utilise and provide the vanadium electrolyte for the previously announced ESO project. The Partnership, which will be owned by redT and Bushveld, will take the form of a special-purpose vehicle structured to hold vanadium, then provide the option to rent that material to the company’s current and future commercial pipeline on a project by project basis. Within this framework, Bushveld has made an initial commitment to supply vanadium for approximately 15 MWh of VRFBs. This reduces the capex costs for the VRFB and makes it very competitive compared to Lithium-Ion especially looking at the life of the system.
The upside potential for the long term for Inivinty will bring huge scale and lower costs. redT’s expertise in energy project analysis has enabled the Company to find viable projects even with production costs which were higher than those of Avalon’s VRFBs. Combining Avalon’s product cost advantages and redT’s project analysis expertise, significant new commercial opportunities are easier. A number of projects initially targeted by redT that was not pursued before as they didn’t have sufficient returns, however favourable economics when using Avalon’s product costing. Add the breadth of geographic coverage (adding North American and Asian markets to redT’s current focus areas of UK, Europe, Africa and Australia) by the merger, it looks very exciting.

Increased strength and improved properties of #steel rebar are as a result of #vanadium. Microalloying elements such as #niobium have proven to be less suited for rebar applications due to their reduced solubility, which is required for high strength seismic rebar. #steel
https://twitter.com/VanitecVanadium/status/1243086554370904064?s=20

Thanks @LionelGreen for asking, I have just had a busy time recently and my focus has had to be elsewhere. Still holding a considerable investment here. I will contribute here when I can, if I feel something is important as I did this afternoon.
These times are very hard for people and many are struggling to come to terms with these tough times. Employed, self-employed, company directors, retirees and investors. There is really no situation like it ever possibly since 1665. Certainly not in our lifetime, and we are only just getting some control on the situation.

I wish everyone well and do stay safe. Respect each other too!

Cheers, RK

Good afternoon all!

I don't think you will find that Bushveld Minerals is up for sale at this time, I think Fortune and Mikhail are used to working in a challenging climate and that times have been tough across Africa for years and years. In Europe, we are used to everything being just fine. Dealing with tricky politics, trying to enpower people with self-worth, improving working conditions for workers and families as well as the difficult living conditions for people as well peoples safety is tough and trying to ensure ethical and fair business practice is something we don't have as challenges. Once we reach the other side of this Covid19 virus which is bringing the world to its knees at this time, then we can be fairly confident that we BMN will bounce back and the progress and growth of the business can be brought back to speed and we will recover lost ground. The business is within touching distance of huge progress.

Just on Lindon's post from earlier - I had clarification from Mikhail that Avalon and Invinity Energy in HK were at one time related, hence the name Invinity. Avalon had the link and with forward-thinking, trying to find a vanadium supply through partnership, but as it was a stone coal deposit and the costs and challenges were far greater, so it was not feasible. Now that Avalon and RedT are coming together they need a simpler structure... and most likely a lower cost and reliable vanadium supplier - wonder who that might be...

Kind wishes to all - keep safe and well!

Cheers, RK

Largo also up today 5.8%
Signs today in the market are good.

Well they have just switched back on you can buy £5K and I have done.

Largo now up 10% - What do they do? Mine and process Vanadium and produce V205! So even though the market price for v205 is low, they are up!

They are still only supplying Glencore - no VRFB clients! No supply agreements...

Just saying ;-)

Good post Peter!

People really do not need to use keyboards to attack each other. Very few people on this board have actually met and know each other. I am pleased to say I have had the privilege to meet a few and great people they were too.
Let's treat people as if they were right in front of you please! Thanks!
RK

Good to see you buying too Nick. I have added around 200k myself now in total.
This is just an unbelievable price to be adding at!

I have had two recent buys both around £4K both below 8.9p. But they keep putting no trade.

It is very frustrating that the trade information is lagging about 2 hours behind!

Just in case anyone was wondering about the fundamentals here, they are staggering! I am with gambitxjs, once the market see's China is switching back on and there is the slightest optimism we might see market jump back upwards at a pace. We have had a quite movee down to this 9 to 10p mark, the mm's may try to move it down again, but they can't go much lower. This is going to be alike a jack in the box when it goes up.
Vametco and Vanchem are operating normally and they can store as much Nitrovan and V205 as they need to ready for the market. Great time to store some up for a few BESS projects. Record production and no issues is a great place. Just because a few market makers in London and watching the world implode on the news, doesn't mean in other parts of the world people are carrying on and producing ready for the world coming online again!
Whilst the world is trying to bulk buy toilet roll (don't they have a shower in their houses?) I think its time to bulk buy bushy shares! Less than 9 pence is frankly madness. True value is more like 90p.
Does anyone agree?

Cheers, RK

Hello all! Anyone want to sell a few. Trying to buy and the market makers have the door firmly shut. They dropped it, not us. If you want the price this low make a market!!

We might even see UK rates fall to zero percent.
The key is changing peoples perception and some one announcing a vaccine or new drug to kill the virus.
The interesting point will be which companies are first to bounce!

Numpty5, many thanks for the point of clarification on the leasing. I would be very happy to if we are not funding the leasing. Do you have any insight into typical commission margins on these agreements or are this non-discussion points due to NDA’s. It would be fascinating to have some more insight on this.
Thanks, RK

This is correct the spot price may go north. But, Bushveld being vertically integrated from mine to electrolyte and then leasing over 20 to 30 years will deliver exceptional revenue returns which year in year will grow.
Alfacomp you may we’ll be correct, but we have so much in the ground we could even export the ore to other parts of the world so they can produce.
Exciting opportunity.

Make no mistake Bushveld Minerals vanadium supply vertically integrated into the VRFB market will have a significant impact. In life, there is always competition but our position is different from every other player. We have the mineral reserve and control it, we have the mines, we have the processing plants, we are building an electrolyte plant and we are acquiring shares in VRFB manufactures and we hope to have our own assembly plant in SA. That ladies and gentlemen is a compelling position and makes Bushveld Minerals a very exciting investment opportunity.
We will get through this global situation and we will see this companies market position realised at some time very soon.
Cheers, RK

There are going to be many forms of energy storage in the global market, but when you look at already the number of VRFB in the world in different markets, we can be sure that VRFB will be a major player in the 4 to 8 hour energy storage space. This is the sweet spot. It is important to remember that Vanadium Electrolyte is unique as it is one chemistry for both sides of the battery, the 4 different states happen as the system is charging or discharging. This is key. The VRFB has this key advantage that the electrolyte will be leased reducing the upfront capital costs compared to other technologies. The Vanadium value in the electrolyte will remain high ensuring leasing costs are low. The battery system will be highly profitable for its owners so there will be a return on investment.
We are all today looking at Bushveld Minerals thinking they are targeting 8400 mtV per annum. But I an others have highlighted that this is just the start based on the two brownfield sites - Vametco and Vanchem. Bushveld by 2023/4 will be looking at constructing a full processing plant at Mokopane, which they will be able to fund from the business. This new plant could be sized at 5000 mtV per year, but if the market increases they could easily build a plant with much higher capacity. Mokopane could easily support 20,000 mtV per year or more. That is over 38,000 tonnes of V205. You can be sure that with all the knowledge Bushveld will have they will now the most efficient way to run that plant. It is highly probable that Bushveld Minerals will have many V205 and V electrolyte clients around the world as well as their own market. Now if you mine and process at low cost this amount of vanadium you will control at least 20 to 25% of the market share. This means you can keep the VRFB costs low and be super competitive. The energy storage market is in its infancy but by 2025 to 2035 it will be an essential part of every global energy project. The market will be in excess of US$100 billion per annum.
When you consider that Mikhail the CEO of Bushveld Energy is at the front of the energy storage market and the leader of Vanitec which supports all vanadium players around the world, you can see they have much in their pockets. There are many cranky ideas in the energy storage market, but people need safe a deliverable systems and the VRFB is just one of those and it will take a considerable market share both for home, mini-grid and large grid applications.

The reduction of pollution over China and Italy in recent weeks has been remarkable. Over the next few weeks as air travel is reduced you see how the skies clear on sunny days.
We don’t need mass extinctions we need to change the way we live. Use the right technology, make the right decisions and stand by our knowledge.
If we are investing in zero or low carbon investments we need to use them for travel and life at home.
I hope you are all able to stay safe and stay away from this awful virus.
Cheers RK

SD, just to follow on from faramog, who has been an investor here from a long time too. The vanadium price was on a huge increase from the end of 2017 to November 2018 where is actually peaked above US$135 per kilo. So you can imagine that the profit for Bushveld Minerals where their operating costs were around US$20 was becoming huge. It actually was a great opportunity for them to build up a huge cash reserve which has enabled the current position. As the vanadium price started to fall some of the large investors were suspected of selling either to short the stock of to cash in on their gains. I am sure that many private investors here have held strong as they know the future and the revenue opportunities as it has been laid out by the company and investors here multiple times. However, the SP drifted back to around 20 to 24p. The opportunities the business has in 2020 would without the CV outbreak our SP could easily have lifted us back toward 40 or even 60p by the end of 2020. Currently, it is hard to predict what will happen and anyone who does really is guessing. But, the opportunities this company has to build up based on supply into future infastrure projects for either construction through growth in rebar production, steel strengtherning and of course this massive opportunity in energy storage. The investor appetitte for green enenrgy which will mean we need large energy storage with 4 to 8 hour duration is going to be a huge market driver. Lithium-Ion is going to be tied into portable storage (phones, mobile computing, tools and transportation), but stationary storage is going to be more focused on flow batteries and other new technologies. But, this market is going to be so huge, even 10 to 20% market share will be worth billions.

I am sure many have thoughts on the previous fall, but let's get through the weeks ahead and then we can focus on the future and expect to see very strong recovery. There are multiple news items which are going to give us strong upside:
Q1 2020 Business update with multiple news items incorporated
Completion of the Enerox GmbH consortium purchase
Battery Energy Storage project announcements - Eskom and others
New VIP partnerships
Independent Power generation opportunities across Africa and especially for the industry in SA needing solar plus storage for mines and production plants let alone community opportunities.
New VRFB contracts being announced following the completion of the Avalon Energy Inc and redT plc merger with vanadium supply and leasing contracts for BMN

I hope this helps. All my thoughts.

Cheers, RK

Sausage-dog, the revenue streams which will grow are based on the following:

The full least of income streams are:
Nitrovan - two grades - Vametco
V205 - Vanchem
V203 - Vanchem
FeV - Vanchem
Vanadium Chemicals - Vanchem
Vanadium Ore - Bushveld Mokopane - Initial revenue via potential off take with other vanadium processing plants
Iron Ore - Bushveld Mokopane - Possible future revenue stream (this was why the company formed in the beginning!)
Vanadium Electrolyte - Bushveld Energy 1000 MWh per annum.
Electrolyte Leasing - Royalties from Bushveld Energy
Bushveld Energy - VRFB Sales in Africa working with VIP Partners and others
Bushveld Energy - Renewable Energy Projects and MicroGrid Projects in Africa
Bushveld Energy - Enerox VRFB Manufacturer
Afritin - Income from the 8.1% stake in the business
Lemur - Either income from the sale of the business or progress and long term income from the substantial power generation project in Madagascar

So if anyone thinks that Bushveld Minerals is just a Vanadium Mining compnay then think again!

Last years huge profits gained after a run on the vanadium prices which helped Bushveld Minerals leapfrog the other market potentials and now even with low prices it helps us jump even further ahead as the other players are held back from huge investments right now. That's why the Bushveld Energy VIP program is so important to Bushveld Energy and also so important to Avalon, REDt and others to give the market long term supply.

The Battery Energy Storage market is looking to be the most exciting sector as the world changes from fossil fuels to renewables and VRFB look like taking a larger slice of this market than we thought might be possible.

They may not be in every home, but they are likely to play a huge role in both Grid storage and Mini-Grid storage systems around the world, the ability to make renewables work will be globally significant!

These are exciting moments for Bushveld Minerals investors. It beggars belief that the market still has not seen this opportunity, but the time is coming when it will.

Cheers RK

The key SA part of the story is of course still the most important part of the jigsaw today - and that is the mines at Vametco which can easily extend through the Brits addition. This gives a huge mine life, then add the largest vanadium mine in the world which now can be opened as the resource is needed - Mokopane. This mine holds around 2 million tonnes of contained vanadium. This turned in V203 / V205 which can provide for the energy storage market for safe VRFB for years to come.
Fortune often says that the Bushveld complex is the Pilbara of Vanadium. Pilbara is an area of Australia with the largest iron ore mines in the world ran by BHP Billion, and Rio Tinto. Bear in mind there are many more potential strikes of vanadium in SA as well as around the world.

So our supply opportunities to the VRFB market is off the scale.

This is just part of the reason why the opportunity to build the VIP network is such a great foundation platform for long term supply of the the lowest cost vanadium in the world.

With supply contacts easy to open to redT in the UK, Avalon Energy in Calafornia, potentially UET in Calafornia also. Once the Enerox GmbH primary VRFB supplier is acquired this will open more doors. We should not forget that the largest manufacturer of VRFB is VoltStorage as these are small home size units and they are certainly a fine potential VIP candidate if demand increases.

Once you join these pieces together you can see what makes this such a compelling investment, and I cannot believe that due to the most unexpected development with the Coronavirus outbreak we have a share price sitting at circa 10p with the broker forecast at 82p. That is only based on just over 6p for Bushveld Energy. Now in two to three years time the revenue from BE is likely to exceed that of the current mining and processing operations which are planned to be at 8400 mtV per year by then. This is staggering and why my own opinion is that the company may have a market capitalisation exceeding £5 million. With today’s world situation that may seem a huge distance, but the world as it repairs will be looking at low cost renewable energy and that needs storage. That will come in may sources but VRFB will be a key part!
Cheers RK.