RE: Lynas Rare Earths – No Separate Dy/Tb Output10 Apr 2025 06:34
European annual demand for rare-earth oxides used in super-strong permanent magnets in electric cars and wind turbines is due to grow by up to 50% to 30 000 metric tons by 2030, worth as much as 1.5-billion euros.
Gadolinium and dysprosium, two rare earths used along with zirconium in modern fuel assemblies, are an effective Chinese monopoly. 99% of their production is concentrated in a single plant outside Shanghai. Installed assemblies at US plants will last 12-24 months. After that, if the US can’t find new sources through third parties, the quality of its assemblies will drop. Restoring production in the US would be extremely tricky. It’s a matter not of months, but of years, including construction, debugging of production, and tech adjustments.
The majority of the world uses 3 and 3+ gen reactor tech. Russia and China are currently the only ones widely experimenting with 4th gen reactors – including BN, Brest and SVBR, and an array of Chinese research reactors. The rare earth restrictions response to US tariffs could allow China and Russia to “very seriously overtake the US." That’s because along with Europe, America is stuck with third-gen reactors and cannot really produce replicable results on its 4th gen experimentation.