Member Info for redwineday

Fire sale?

I'd be really surprised if we don't see an offer on the next few weeks. Rothschild's have been appointed for only one reason and they don't like to hang about. They want to get a deal done, collect the fees and move on. They'll have been working the phones and have their shiney presentation crafted to perfection by now. 3 months max and maybe before the H1 numbers are published.

Seems to me that they signposted Q1 in the FY presentation comments. At that time they would already have visibility on the Q1 number. Market should have priced it in but then again any reason to kick this is gladly taken.

I agree that the key here is any update on outlook although I suspect we will have to wait until later in the year to get this. They won't want to commit themselves so early, which is exactly right.

According to their presentation, tech client mix fell to 43% in 2023 vs 47% in 2022, so not that much but obviously the revenue impact was far higher.

A couple of big corporate client wins would go a long way to plugging the gap.

Exactly. The tech clients blah is wearing thin. Find some new clients, which is something they admitted in the last call they have failed to do.

Bargain. It closed at 14p in Toronto

Maybe so but both WPP and S4 have reported that tech clients have reduced spend and this has been the biggest impact of revenue, not the clients of tech clients.

Obviously clients like Meta and Google have been keeping costs down, particularly Meta. This has caused a rebound in their profitability. We need to hope that their better circumstances will lead them to loosen the purse strings to drive further growth. I'm sot sure thats a certainty though. Companies that discover they can spend less and at the same time increase revenue are unlikely to give up that unless they have a clear need.

What has tech earnings got to do with it? S4 makes money when its tech client s spend money and at the moment they are saving mount by cutting cost. This cost cutting is driving their earnings. S4's earnings are not correlated to its clients earnings in the way you suggest.

Up to 10% on the open. 15p equiv. Let's hope it keeps it up!

*will hang on until that happens. Then he can bow out gracefully saying I did it. . He also has a lot of cash riding on that happening.

The lack of liquidity can certainly explain the volatility. Look at today for example, best part of an 8% swing and thats not uncommon for S4 sp. MM's are kicking sand in S4's face

However, to state the obvious, the reason we are subject to the lack of liquidity is the lack of interest caused by the low SP caused by SMS lack of control on the business in 22 and 23. To directly quote him "its embarrassing". Fund managers headed for the exit last year and they aint coming back until its clear S4 are back in growth mode and he has a grip on the numbers/forecasts. The positive is it can work 2 ways and if/when he is able to do this I expect the SP can rally strongly.

I just cant see him agreeing to a merger until the SP is a lot higher and for that he needs to deliver profit growth and I think he willing on until that happens.

When WPP go down S4 goes down, when WPP go up S4 goes down. When the market goes up S4 goes down, when the market goes down S4 goes down.

I see a trend!

Don't see this moving until there is an upward revision, which may happen by H2. If not hen I'm thinking it'll be 2026 before I'm in the black here. Don't see the risk in averaging down as being very palatable. Too much merde going on in the world.

Seems to be melting away and thus SP easily walked down as illustrated in yesterday afternoons trading. We really need to see something positive in the Q1 results.

Where does the info re the Orinduik data room come from? I haven't seen anything but may have missed it.

Usual blah bah which in the circumstances is gobsmacking. I've sold out here over the past weeks taking a proper kick in the you know whats on the way.

I'm off now down to the bookies to put what's left on the rank outsider in the 3.30 at Haydock. I have a far better chance there than with this pos.

Sorrell controls the ability to say no, he needs others to agree to a takeover as well as him saying yes. I'm not saying it's impossible or others wont want out at any price but I'm sure it'll be a long way north of here before its acceptable to the founders never mind the other buy in participants.

It's not just about Sorrell though. There are many senior people or former agency owners who sold half their business at around £4 per share. Speaking personally, if I were offered £1.50 for something I sold at £4 I wouldn't be to keen, particularly if I believed that the market was undervaluing S4.

It's being tee'd up by Rothschild, no doubt they have been placing all the media stories. Let's see what the papers bring on Sunday. Any bid from here would need to be at 80p starting point I guess. They'll be hoping to bid a bidding war going. Cant see this going for less than £1.

I find it quite remarkable/disheartening that here we are again being played by the market, closing down 8.99% @51.10p on the day, after hitting the days high of 57.5p @08.10am, a 11.1% swing with no S4 company news reported. Where next? Back to year lows of 36p? Nothing would surprise me with this market anymore, nothing.

Spot on mate. It's a joke and disheartening is the right word. But....SMS/S4 has given them this opportunity. When you have a year like they had last year this is the outcome. Good news needed before we can move on.

Level of trading has dropped off a cliff. Shorts gone?