Member Info for redwineday

Spectre

Squeaky *** time!

Nothing happening here until some news breaks (hopefully good)

Question is who will be the buyer of the 14.8% AOI stake and at what price. Looking at AOI annual report, if I read it correctly they are holding a book value based on the Sp at 31/12/23 or 11p per share or approx £6m. Seems a pretty small price for someone to pay to access the assets.

Could be a reason for the lack of movement on the SP? That is an expectation that the AOI divestment is an overhang of sorts no matter how it is managed.

These ST stories are likely being placed by one of the players. Either Foxton's or more likely the Foxton's bankers to drum up interest or the unhappy shareholders to do the same. One way or another Foxtons is up for sale, question is, is there a buyer at the right price? My feeling, judging by the lack of movement in the SP, is its not obvious there is.

The obvious answer is they don't.

Really wished they had shut up. SP performance since has been rubbish, from 170 back down to this level, since they made the announcement.

We really need some visibility from Tritax telling the market how they intend to profit from this so far value destroying merger.

I believe the Q1 comparisons will exclude the business purchased in March last year, so Q2 in isolation would be a better comparison.

Got to be worth a quid, surely

Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/foxtons-appoints-advisers-as-it-comes-under-pressure-to-sell-6djphszg5

Certainly controlled like a penny stock. I'm afraid it is its fate until good news arrives....

If this goes below 50p I'll be piling in. Seems to me there is absolutely no reason for the SP to be at this price other than delayed interest rate cuts but on the credit side the London sales market is finally starting to pick up, prices rising, and FOXT with a MTP to double the profit well under way with motivated and incentivised management.

Assuming Sir Starmer doesn't f**k it up then £1 plus here is looking easily achievable and a short term 20% likely not to mention a takeout at £1 plus.

He's a random passer by.

Whatever AA is doing he is not sitting on his hands waiting for something to happen. Patience required and if you have the stomach for it, average down.

Nige

I agree he won't sell out, however I think he might think about a merger. Maybe a US company so that he can del-list on London and head to NASDAQ, but I think the price would need to well well north of here.

Frankie

Jupiter have gone. The rest I think is just rounding. Milton looks the same. I suppose the insets are just like us. They are locked in.

Frankly I think the only hope here is a trade buyer or AOP step in. 6p would be a dream...

They can have mine for £4.20!

Govt doesn't have anything up its sleeve. It's as dead as a dead parrot. And as useful...

1msn/ NIgeCo. Much as I would like to see your £4 level, I cant see this in the foreseeable future.

Last year before the sector slow down and sell off, WPP was trading at around 10xEPS, today its around 7x. If S4 were trading at a similar level on its adjusted EPS then todays SP should be in the mid 70's. Let's assume the sector picks back up and gets back to 10x then for your £4, S4 would need to quadruple its earnings. Is it possible?

If they can get back to high teens margin on a net rev of 1bn, say earnings of 180m on the f/c 2025 share count = 27pps. By 2025 this seems not impossible although according to the FT the highest analyst forecast for 2025 is 10.8p, so the analysts basically discount an improving margin., which seems harsh to me. If the sector re-rates back to 10x average (perfectly plausible by next year end) then SP at 2.70 seems not unreasonable. For it to be higher they either need to grow the revenue organically as no deals until £4 has already been stated by SMS or their rating has to be higher than the sector which could be if they get the margins back up but it would need to be 50% higher. Seems unlikely.

For S4 to i be higher than the sector they need to have 1. fully rehabilitated themselves with the market (no surprises) and 2. they either need some big client wins or start the growth cycle again at below £4ps. It's all a bit circular.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a merger but I think the price will need to be well north of £2 for SMS to agree.

I had the time to watch the presentation and my take-out was that it seemed cautiously optimistic. New client pipeline, client budgets fixed, so on were nit selected in the 2024 outlook statement. I think they are underselling so they can surprise on the upside later in the year.