Member Info for redwineday

Not sure we want that as if Goldman put a buy on it they will probably be shorting the hell out of it in the background. Bar stewards.

Great post Zarro. What we could be doing with to secure the non breach of covenant is a couple of big stones. Given the run rate and consistency of recovery this year it’s not unreasonable to expect 20m or so contributing more than is in the 2020 outlook.

This is priced to to go bust, which of there is a global recession and the diamond price sinks it may well do on the other hand if they get to 2021, with less capex, a few big stones along the way and reduced opex, the SP will recover strongly. I also believe they have an option not considered which is to sell assets if the situation gets that dire.

It has to be at these levels. This is my worry with this share is that it gets taken out at a ridiculous price vs the long term potential. Would be small change for one of the majors who could refinance at a third of the cost.

increased by 26k ffs...its the summer intern practicing

Refinance the debt at half the current rate (shouldn't be so hard for the right buyer) and save $30m pa. Again the right buyer can deliver synergies, let say equivalent project 2022, at 50m pa. AT 20p per share business cost is $225m. the deal pays for itself in less than 3 years. Not bad for assets with potential to produce 100m a year for 30 years at todays money. If only I had the cash....

Ignore it, its machines trading. As Oiltap says, news will change it and will slow and steady earning being delivered. At least its not oil they are drilling for!

Agree with the PMO comparison. Seems PMO finally woke up to debt reduction being the key to salvation, even if it has nit yet taken effect. PDL are in the same boat although I would say they are less at the whims of the basket case that is the oil market today.

I don't see the covenant breached. Of course it depends on the price achieved (currently a negative) and exceptional stones they will find, currently not counted and therefore a potential positive. What I do agree with is that today the company works for the bondholders. Investing here is a punt on the management delivering on their project 2022 aims and some big stones turning up. If this happens then the current SP will look like a bargain in 18 months. If it doesn't or there is a big meltdown in the diamond market, the company will have to sell assets to survive.

https://www.petradiamonds.com/wp-content/uploads/JP-Morgan-Debt-Conference-slides-26-Sept-2019-FINAL.pdf

Squeaky bottom time for the shorters. Wouldn't want to be sitting on these and exposed to sharp upward spike in the OP and Zama sale to come. Let the squeeze begin!

Do you have a link or do they explain the logic?

Its a long piece but this is the comment I referred to

GKP is the much better risk because they have in detail have exhibited in their annual presentation the depletion data for all wells since they went into production and appear to have depleted 1-2% per year which is nothing. Peshkabir exhibited the same historic production characteristics and you see what a good field it has become. The Sarquala field a Western Zagros property in Iraq also did the same as well as the Umusadege field in Nigeria. If the wells don't deplete there is much more oil to come. As for the expansion it will not be financed with new LT or ST debt which stands at only 95 million. So a self funding 60% increase in production is a great trade off for a temporary change in FCF. I KNOW that the Shaikan field is a great asset in the growing stage of the asset. 100% certain.
Genel has to shake off the Tony Hayward legacy of deceit (of hiding the Taq Taq depletion problem for about 2 years) meaning current management needs to come clean and supply all the data for anyone to make a fair assessment of the company. I also know that Tawke alone is off 40K/day in gross production during the last 18 months which is a major concern for me. You don't know how the Sarta field is going to turn out without the past production history and we know TaqTaq is way past its peak. So I see much more operational risk with Genel hence more speculative based on the unknown. It certainly explains the relative discounted price.

Interesting comment at the bottom of the page highlighting GENL & GKP transparency on depletion

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4285479-genel-energy-value-play-oil-and-gas

TD has woken up! Big uplift today..

Another day and no buy backs. Really don’t understand this. I understand the purpose is not to get the SP higher but on the other side it surely isn’t to wait until the SP drops before seeing value or the reason for the the buy back ( current SP undervalues the company) would be meaningless. Or am I being stupid!!

Does anyone know if they are prevented from buying back stock when there is a share price moving event pending (Bina possibly?). I ask this question more in hope than expectation of something significant to move the SP higher. On the other hand what other reason can there be for np BB action.

Crispy Odious has been wrong more than he has been right in the last few years, even after his shorting UK plc whilst bunging Farage to blow the country up. Hope he blows himself, only a matter of time.

With this amount of cash and cash-flow generated Genel surely must be attract to someone, one would have thought?

What a dope! This stock has fallen since it was floated. By your logic it means it’s only going lower.