Member Info for redwineday

RI at 86% less than the previous price. 207p to 30p. No idea what will happen on Monday morning. In a more rational market this would tank given the revised terms of the RI and placing but who knows!

Debt is the killer here. Equity value is close to zero IMO in the current condition, seems the investors see the same at 30p buy in price.

Its a shame but this is an (expensive) car crash.....hope it survives. No doubt Mr Stroll has deep enough pockets to pick it up in a pre pack if it doesn't survive CV.

Look at the slide in their results presentation with the waterfall chart. If this repeats this year either debt increases or some other cash call required. On your second point, DeBeers last cycle result (before Covid panic really kicked off in earnest) already 36% in $ value less than previous one. So, price declining again as reported by idex and volume tanking.

They will be taking on debt now to survive the next 6 months as revenue will dry up. Might be no different for lots of companys in this respect and as you say at least they start from low debt position. If the US buyers dry up who knows what will happen to the diamond market. Might be that deBeers and Alrosa do a KSA/Russia and use this time as an opportunity to drive out smaller players. GEM can survive due to the uniqueness of their stones but what the balance sheet will look like at the end of all this who knows.

And profit is before CV impact which will be happening now. Look out for March regs and Q2 will be a write off. perfect storm or cluster****.

Why is it totally overdone? Look at the cash burn. Why will it get better soon? Good luck!

Looks like Tony Bramall bought too soon although he can afford to wait and his buys in the past have proved shrewd, this says to me there is a lack of grip in the boardroom. Can see this going lower. Results will be a deck clearing and covid impact yet to hit. At some point it will be a buy but I think it’s got lower to go.

Kitchen sinking coming with the finals or something smelly with the FCA. Or both!

Bottom of FTSE all share on the day. Something leaking?

Yes Covid has an impact as it has in the rest of the market but to say its THE reason is a delusion. This wonderful brand has a P&L , BS and outlook horror show. Lost 110m, never made profit, 860m of debt. Stroll has put his money in because he can defray his F1 costs, play with a shiny new toy and get his money back in sum by selling what's left in a few years after he gets bored. Why do you think it can be a 'giant'? The prospectus says they are shrinking the portfolio vs the previous plan (maybe no bad thing). Maybe in 5 years time it will be more, it probabaly will be otherwise it will have gone bust but investing in this company now is to tie your fortunes to the whims of rich men who have a new vanity project.

This company should never have been brought to the public markets. The banks that promoted it should be ashamed and fund managers who bought it should be fired. Retail PIs have only themselves to blame in lining up to take a sucker punch.

Rant over but really this is an example of how corrupt the City of London is.

ARCM have borrowed the shares and sold them. They own no rights as they own none of those shares (although I read they are also long PMO albeit in a far smaller way). Whoever bought them has the rights.

The interesting thing to know would be if the original lender can demand the shares back in the event of a RI to allow them to take it up. I would imagine that there would be some such clause as the lender is exposed otherwise.

I would guess that most if not all of the raising will be placed. This will be PMOs target. It’s cheaper and easier to mange the book.

60k worth of trades and price drops by 6%. WTF! If we all chip in and buy 100 grands worth tomorrow we can get it up by 10% !!!

Good pint Grippa. Still think that on announcing he short closing this thing should rocket.

The issue they have IMO is when they start to close it will be visible, assuming they disclose it of course, and this is when the squeeze will start. Every self respecting HF will pile in to squeeze them. I hope!

I’d take the punt but it’s a rollercoaster. Reminds me of PMO a couple of years back. All over the shop but if Truce is right it’s a blower. But WTFDIK as I’m down a large chunk having thought I was smart buying below 30p!

Should be writing the city column for the Star.... ffs.

Best hope here is or was some corporate action. Some interesting shareholders but gone all quiet recently. Maybe licking their wounds caused by getting in too early. Otherwise for me it's either a trader, 10% swings are quite common or keep away. Look at this mornings RNS, talk about keeping it short, it said absolutely nothing. Quite unprofessional IMO. Also their corporate website. Small pointers to answer you're question. IMO there are better LTH in UK motor retail, should you be that way inclined....BTW Odey is on the shareholder register but you may want take that as a contra indicator .

First YoY growth. Should be good news although we cant see the underlying price level which is more relevant to Petra.

I’m in Hurricane. Clearly I’m not so savvy...

Just listened to it. I was disappointed not only in the result but also in the explanations. Net debt was flat vs the previous quarter, given that they explained the rise in that quarter as being a one off due to only one tender and therefore high inventory, I don't get why the debt did not move back down. Were they unable to sell the inventory? Whatever its not clear and I may be cynical but why didn't they explain. I guess because they don't have a good answer. Duffy lost a bit of credibility with me today in terms of transparency.

Q3 really now critical. In this Q they have the opportunity to reduce the inventory and have no drag via BEE or coupon payments. Sods law has it that they will be selling into a spooked market. They really could be doing with a couple of big stones to help them out. They need to be paying down 50m minimum. If not, FY will be no materially better than last year and I guess that will be an issue in any refinancing talks which will not doubt be starting in the second half of this year.

PMO BOD already know the price they will achieve so they went ahead with the placing announcement with this in mind, so one assumes they have shown their lenders the debt profile and cashflows with that price. I think they will want to have the deal inked before the 12th so they can be certain in front of their lenders. We could expect to see it any day altough not sure it will have an impact on the SP unless its more than they have already indicated.