Member Info for redwineday

I hope so and its not just PI's being suckered by MM's lol

You are absolutely correct, WS should follow retail. If retail
Is rising WS will follow as dealers order cars to substitute the ones they have sold. However here we have the opposite, retail is rising and wholesale is declining. 2 things are mentioned in their RNS. Stock is normalising, which should be a good thing apart from the theoretical one off hit and secondly it cost them more to drive the retail higher meaning lower margins. IMO this means also lower margins in the future as clearly customers need bigger discounts to be tempted to buy.

On the R&D point, someone us posted earlier here or maybe ADFN a comparison. The way AML treats capitalisation of expenses is completely different from other brands. IIRC there ratio in this regard is more than 2 times higher the the next manufacturer and 3 more than the average. Something around 90% of development costs are capitalised.

The final point I agree with you. This brand has a value, that’s why it keeps coming back to life after 7 previous deaths. However for me is it 1.9bn? I don’t think so!

Final final point is the financial engineering that got the float away. This eventually will come out in the wash. It is now. How much someone will pay to invest at this time is the question and all I’m saying is I doubt it’s £4 a sure or anywhere near it. Daimler who I’m sure will have looked at and have very deep pockets this would have stepped in by now if the saw value. But who knows maybe they will!

No worries, I have made many a ffs, only a term of endearment really!

Good luck to you too mate. Hope you enjoy the DBX, looks like a nice car!

I really don't get that anyone can think the situation here is anything other than dire. Retail sales are sales of cars previously wholesaled. That is revenue has been booked but since these cars to more cash/offers to sell to customers it means the revenue booked was too low so revenue is adjusted. So more retail than wholesale is generally bad and if the wholesale is falling it is very bad.

People here are thinking about SP rather than EV. EV of this company is c1.9bn. 1.9bn for 5800 cars last year or 327k per car. they say current margin is 13% of lets say a generous 150k per car is c20k, so current EV is 16x current volume as measured by car.

EBITDA is positive. Problem is all of the development expenses have been put into the D (90 odd% vs other s at 40%) means these expenses have just been deferred.

Anyway, enough of finance lesson. Make your own mind up based on the SP today Vs the SP yesterday. No wonder Goldman got this away at £19.

You don't own rights in shares you have sold.....ffs

Could of course be an SXX situation, ie it will get taken out for a premium on a very low price. Maybe a few pence
a share? The buyer is going to take on 1bn debt plus whatever the future capex plan looks like. Why would the equity holder get anything out of this?

I dont short as a matter of principle but this one is really tempting.

Any buy in here will surely mean you get diluted at any price you hold at. This company is effectively bust, debt bigger than market cap and not making any money. Last time I looked that was not a recipe for a sound investment. Any bidder for the company or part of it is going to want it for nothing. If you are looking to trade this, then good luck, but might as well be putting it on red or black.

Mkt cap 959m for loss making business borrowing money at 15% to keep the lights on with 1bn borrowings and capitalising expenses, can you imagine what the 'real' numbers are? Why would anyone invest here without a massive dilution being the consequence? These have far further to go imo.

Where is Astonmartinlover with his 10 quid a share, I have inside info bs?

'Lender consent for the proposed Acquisitions, related funding arrangements and extension of credit facilities will be sought via two Court-approved schemes of arrangement (the "Schemes"). Of the creditors subject to the Schemes, 83.3 per cent. of Super Senior Commitments and 72.7 per cent. of the Senior Commitments have already committed to approve the Schemes.'

I think they are up the proverbial creek. Looks like Rothchilds have done a sterling job with the other bondholders

Look out for the next wave of broker updates. Can see these at £2.

A good headline would be, our 'chief city reporter' knows nothing about what's going on in the city

The way I read it debt holders have approved and debt is extended till end of 2023.
ARCM get their rights issue to allow them to close their short.
No idea what will happen to the SP but I would guess in 6 months time it will be where it is now.

The comments on the article, the press and FCA are hilarious. You guys need to wake up and get real. Britain is a corrupt state. The press is owned by oligarchs and geriatric tycoons only interested in their own self interests. They effectively control the media output and therefore have the spineless politicians in their pockets. The same spineless politicians control the actions of the state, in this case the FCA. They will do nothing to stop these people doing what they want, thus the FCA are useless. If you think you ranting either on here or by writing to anyone you ar esmoking something I want a puff of. Jeez....

I think if there is no equity raised or debt swap then they are in trouble. Going back to my previous post, this is why I think they know something we don't otherwise they surely would be reducing the short. Could be their brokers are covering them with CFDs?

Actually to correct myself, since the would have bought the bonds at well below par, the effective yield the get with the 7% is much higher than that. They could be funding the short easily with this and therefore be in no panic to get out of the short. They probably have a winning hand either way.

Remember they have a 7% coupon on the bondsand this will finance the short, so their bet is on the debt being worth more than the equity, which it is in the sense that they debt holders call is higher than the equity holders, at least until the refinancing is done.

I wouldn't bet on them being toast. The fact they have not reduced the short, assuming they would tell anyone(!) says to me they still believe they have levers. Unless TD can produce a solution that gets every other bondholder on side or a complete refinancing with a different group of banks (seems like a tall and or very expensive order) then they are still in the game. Their objective I am convinced will be to get a debt for equity swap as part of the refinancing. They can then hand back the stock on loan without purchasing it in the market. All of the selling assets BS is part of the negotiation on this, I'll wager.

They have a hedge in the debt they hold. I don't have access to the debt pricing (does anyone here have this?) but as PMO overall situation improves, debt should rise in price so they can net one of against the other. However they will have the lending fee to pay against the stock on loan, maybe 3% ish plus margin calls against the funding of the short. You would need t know all of this to know how much, if any, pain they are in.

Hoping for the latter of course